Skip to content

Seattle Kraken vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 15, 2026

NHL matchup

Seattle Kraken at Tampa Bay Lightning

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 15, 2026.

October 15, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Seattle Kraken

7-4-1

3
Final
Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

7-3-1

4 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Tampa Bay Lightning at 53.8% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Seattle Kraken logo
Away team

Seattle Kraken

46.2%
Fair American +116
Fair decimal 2.16
Best market +220 · BetMGM
Market implied 31.2%
Edge +15.0%
Expected value +47.8%
Calculate value
Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Home team

Tampa Bay Lightning

53.8%
Fair American -116
Fair decimal 1.86
Best market -250 · BetRivers
Market implied 71.4%
Edge -17.6%
Expected value -24.7%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 15, 2026.

Seattle Kraken

All Model Picks

Bets
3
Record
3-0
Net units
2.96
ROI
98.6%

Value Picks

Bets
5
Record
3-2
Net units
2.14
ROI
42.8%

Market Favourite

Bets
1
Record
1-0
Net units
0.67
ROI
66.7%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 15. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Seattle Kraken

7 / 7 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

113:52 together · 7 games

xG share50.9%
Corsi for / against
101 / 102
Fenwick for / against
74 / 74
Corsi share
49.8%
Fenwick share
50.0%
xG for / against
4.99 / 4.82
All observed combinations

Tampa Bay Lightning

6 / 6 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

69:21 together · 6 games

xG share56.3%
Corsi for / against
82 / 61
Fenwick for / against
57 / 41
Corsi share
57.3%
Fenwick share
58.2%
xG for / against
3.12 / 2.42
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Seattle Kraken

Joey Daccord 65.2%
Other eligible goalies

Why Joey Daccord?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Started last game
+0.518
Goalie team start share
+0.508
Days since last start
+0.376
Won previous appearance
+0.267
Team win pct before
-0.259
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 15, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Tampa Bay Lightning

Andrei Vasilevskiy 68.9%
Other eligible goalies

Why Andrei Vasilevskiy?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.936
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.400
Started last game
-0.272
Team win pct before
-0.218
Goalie win pct before
+0.158
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 15, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Philipp Grubauer

Seattle Kraken · Last start: Oct 13

4 / 4 appearances covered

Shots faced
98
Save %
91.8
Goals allowed
8
Close-range shots %
28.6

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 13

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
105
Save %
88.6
Goals allowed
12
Close-range shots %
30.5
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 15, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Seattle Kraken

xG for / game
3.14
xG against / game
3.28
xG differential / game
-0.15

7 / 7 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG for / game
3.18
xG against / game
2.55
xG differential / game
0.63

6 / 6 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 15, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Seattle Kraken

7 / 7 games covered

Attempts / game
51.9
Corsi share (%)
43.7
Fenwick share (%)
46.3
Faceoff win %
49.1
Penalties / game
4.29

Shots / game: 26.9 · Shooting: 14.9% · Avg distance: 33.2 ft

Tampa Bay Lightning

6 / 6 games covered

Attempts / game
62.2
Corsi share (%)
55.3
Fenwick share (%)
55.5
Faceoff win %
46.0
Penalties / game
3.67

Shots / game: 29.5 · Shooting: 9.6% · Avg distance: 30.9 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Seattle Kraken SEA
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
15Points15
0.625Points %0.682
45Goals for38
42Goals against34
3Goal differential4
L1Current streakOT1
Road versus home
Seattle Kraken SEA road
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL home
7Games5
4Wins5
9Points10
3Goal differential9
Last 10 games
Seattle Kraken SEA
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
6-3-1Record7-2-1
13Points15
38Goals for37
38Goals against29
0Goal differential8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Seattle Kraken SEA 2 wins
10 games reviewed
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 8 wins
Total goals19 – 42
Goal differential -23 / +23
Goals per game1.9 / 4.2
Shots per game27.1 / 30.9
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 26, 2026
Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 3 19 - 33 View
Mar 17, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken
6 - 2 25 - 18 View
Feb 23, 2025
Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 4 37 - 24 View
Dec 14, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken
5 - 1 31 - 22 View
Dec 9, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken
4 - 3 30 - 29 View
Oct 30, 2023
Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 3 43 - 37 View
Jan 16, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken
4 - 1 31 - 23 View
Dec 13, 2022
Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
2 - 6 38 - 30 View
Mar 16, 2022
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken
4 - 1 42 - 25 View
Nov 26, 2021
Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
0 - 3 17 - 26 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings SEA TBL