Seattle Kraken vs Montréal Canadiens Prediction, Odds & Win Probability | March 4, 2027

March 4, 2027 · 7:00 PM MBT

Away

Seattle Kraken

9-6-1

41.9%

Home

Montréal Canadiens

11-3-4

58.1% Model pick

Model V2 pick: Montréal Canadiens at 58.1%

Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Away team

Seattle Kraken

41.9%

Fair American +139

Fair decimal 2.39

Calculate value

Home team

Montréal Canadiens

58.1%

Fair American -139

Fair decimal 1.72

Calculate value

Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 4, 2027.

Seattle Kraken

All Model Picks

Bets: 8
Record: 5-3
Net units: 1.66
ROI: 20.7%

Value Picks

Bets: 14
Record: 7-7
Net units: 1.54
ROI: 11.0%

Market Favourite

Bets: 4
Record: 3-1
Net units: 1.37
ROI: 34.2%

Full team betting results

Montréal Canadiens

All Model Picks

Bets: 11
Record: 8-3
Net units: 2.91
ROI: 26.5%

Value Picks

Bets: 5
Record: 3-2
Net units: 1.26
ROI: 25.2%

Market Favourite

Bets: 12
Record: 8-4
Net units: 1.91
ROI: 15.9%

Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 4. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Seattle Kraken

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

65:33 together · 8 games

xG share41.5%

Corsi for / against: 50 / 69
Fenwick for / against: 35 / 47
Corsi share: 42.0%
Fenwick share: 42.7%
xG for / against: 2.06 / 2.90

Defense pair

148:29 together · 9 games

xG share47.5%

Corsi for / against: 127 / 156
Fenwick for / against: 98 / 114
Corsi share: 44.9%
Fenwick share: 46.2%
xG for / against: 6.04 / 6.68

All observed combinations

Montréal Canadiens

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

91:57 together · 10 games

xG share60.1%

Corsi for / against: 92 / 75
Fenwick for / against: 69 / 55
Corsi share: 55.1%
Fenwick share: 55.6%
xG for / against: 4.26 / 2.83

Defense pair

126:13 together · 10 games

xG share59.4%

Corsi for / against: 157 / 115
Fenwick for / against: 112 / 84
Corsi share: 57.7%
Fenwick share: 57.1%
xG for / against: 7.47 / 5.12

All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Montréal Canadiens

Expected starter unavailable.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Mar 4, 2027. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Seattle Kraken

P. Grubauer

GP: 10
Starts: 8
Wins: 5
Save %: 0.889
GAA: 3.08

J. Daccord

GP: 9
Starts: 8
Wins: 4
Save %: 0.881
GAA: 3.83

Montréal Canadiens

J. Fowler

GP: 11
Starts: 11
Wins: 8
Save %: 0.925
GAA: 2.14

J. Dobes

GP: 7
Starts: 7
Wins: 3
Save %: 0.847
GAA: 4.04

S. Montembeault

GP: 0
Starts: 0
Wins: 0
Save %: —
GAA: —

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Joey Daccord

Seattle Kraken · Last start: Nov 7

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced: 121
Save %: 85.1
Goals allowed: 18
Close-range shots %: 27.3

Jacob Fowler

Montréal Canadiens · Last start: Nov 10

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced: 174
Save %: 92.5
Goals allowed: 13
Close-range shots %: 35.6

Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 4, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Seattle Kraken

xG for / game: 2.52
xG against / game: 3.29
xG differential / game: -0.76

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Montréal Canadiens

xG for / game: 3.28
xG against / game: 3.43
xG differential / game: -0.16

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 4, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Seattle Kraken

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game: 51.0
Corsi share (%): 44.6
Fenwick share (%): 44.5
Faceoff win %: 52.6
Penalties / game: 3.1

Shots / game: 25.3 · Shooting: 11.5% · Avg distance: 33.8 ft

Montréal Canadiens

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game: 56.5
Corsi share (%): 48.0
Fenwick share (%): 48.6
Faceoff win %: 52.6
Penalties / game: 5.0

Shots / game: 26.5 · Shooting: 13.2% · Avg distance: 34.5 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Mar 4, 2027.

Seattle Kraken

B. Montour Hot · +2.53 P/GP

4 games vs Montréal Canadiens · 3.00 points/game
0.47 points/game across 156 games vs other opponents

Goals: 7
Assists: 5
Points: 12
Shots / game: 3.5

F. Gaudreau Hot · +0.92 P/GP

3 games vs Montréal Canadiens · 1.33 points/game
0.41 points/game across 163 games vs other opponents

Goals: 1
Assists: 3
Points: 4
Shots / game: 1.3

C. Stephenson Hot · +0.87 P/GP

4 games vs Montréal Canadiens · 1.50 points/game
0.63 points/game across 170 games vs other opponents

Goals: 0
Assists: 6
Points: 6
Shots / game: 1.3

K. Kakko Hot · +0.74 P/GP

3 games vs Montréal Canadiens · 1.33 points/game
0.59 points/game across 157 games vs other opponents

Goals: 2
Assists: 2
Points: 4
Shots / game: 2.3

R. Lindgren Hot · +0.62 P/GP

5 games vs Montréal Canadiens · 0.80 points/game
0.18 points/game across 146 games vs other opponents

Goals: 1
Assists: 3
Points: 4
Shots / game: 0.8

Montréal Canadiens

C. Caufield Hot · +0.80 P/GP

4 games vs Seattle Kraken · 1.75 points/game
0.95 points/game across 177 games vs other opponents

Goals: 5
Assists: 2
Points: 7
Shots / game: 3.0

N. Dobson Hot · +0.71 P/GP

4 games vs Seattle Kraken · 1.25 points/game
0.54 points/game across 165 games vs other opponents

Goals: 1
Assists: 4
Points: 5
Shots / game: 2.5

J. Evans Cold · -0.40 P/GP

4 games vs Seattle Kraken · 0.00 points/game
0.40 points/game across 164 games vs other opponents

Goals: 0
Assists: 0
Points: 0
Shots / game: 0.5

O. Kapanen Cold · -0.38 P/GP

3 games vs Seattle Kraken · 0.00 points/game
0.38 points/game across 108 games vs other opponents

Goals: 0
Assists: 0
Points: 0
Shots / game: 0.3

C. Kreider Cold · -0.37 P/GP

5 games vs Seattle Kraken · 0.20 points/game
0.57 points/game across 155 games vs other opponents

Goals: 1
Assists: 0
Points: 1
Shots / game: 1.6

How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview

SEA	Metric	MTL
19	Points	26
0.594	Points %	0.722
57	Goals for	62
57	Goals against	55
0	Goal differential	7
L1	Current streak	OT1

Road versus home

SEA road	Metric	MTL home
8	Games	10
4	Wins	5
9	Points	13
-1	Goal differential	-3

Last 10 games

SEA	Metric	MTL
5-4-1	Record	7-0-3
11	Points	17
31	Goals for	35
40	Goals against	25
-9	Goal differential	10

History

Last 10 head-to-head games

SEA 5 wins

10 games reviewed

MTL 5 wins

Total goals38 – 32

Goal differential +6 / -6

Goals per game3.8 / 3.2

Shots per game30.5 / 23.9

Date	Matchup	Score	Shots	Details
Oct 28, 2025	Montréal Canadiens at Seattle Kraken	4 - 3	21 - 21	View
Oct 14, 2025	Seattle Kraken at Montréal Canadiens	4 - 5	22 - 22	View
Mar 12, 2025	Montréal Canadiens at Seattle Kraken	4 - 5	25 - 35	View
Oct 29, 2024	Seattle Kraken at Montréal Canadiens	8 - 2	23 - 30	View
Mar 24, 2024	Montréal Canadiens at Seattle Kraken	5 - 1	17 - 37	View
Dec 4, 2023	Seattle Kraken at Montréal Canadiens	2 - 4	33 - 30	View
Jan 9, 2023	Seattle Kraken at Montréal Canadiens	4 - 0	41 - 21	View
Dec 6, 2022	Montréal Canadiens at Seattle Kraken	4 - 2	16 - 33	View
Mar 12, 2022	Seattle Kraken at Montréal Canadiens	4 - 3	34 - 33	View
Oct 26, 2021	Montréal Canadiens at Seattle Kraken	1 - 5	24 - 26	View

This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.

Seattle Kraken vs Montréal Canadiens prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 4, 2027

Seattle Kraken at Montréal Canadiens

Seattle Kraken

Montréal Canadiens

Model V2 versus market

Seattle Kraken

Montréal Canadiens

Team performance leading into this game

Seattle Kraken

All Model Picks

Value Picks

Market Favourite

Montréal Canadiens

All Model Picks

Value Picks

Market Favourite

Forward trios & defense pairs

Seattle Kraken

Montréal Canadiens

Expected starters

Every recorded goalie

Seattle Kraken

Montréal Canadiens

Recent starting goalies

Recent expected goals

Team tendencies before this game

Hot & cold against the other team

Seattle Kraken

Montréal Canadiens

Want the full picture?

Season and recent form

Last 10 head-to-head games