Away team
San Jose Sharks
41.4%
Fair American
+142
Fair decimal
2.42
San Jose Sharks vs Vegas Golden Knights prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 16, 2026
NHL matchup
San Jose Sharks at Vegas Golden Knights
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 16, 2026.
December 16, 2026
· 9:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Vegas Golden Knights at 58.6%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Vegas Golden Knights
58.6%
Fair American
-142
Fair decimal
1.71
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 16, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 4
- Record
- 2-2
- Net units
- 0.45
- ROI
- 11.3%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 9
- Record
- 4-5
- Net units
- 0.66
- ROI
- 7.3%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 1
- Record
- 1-0
- Net units
- 0.89
- ROI
- 89.3%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 12
- Record
- 8-4
- Net units
- 0.54
- ROI
- 4.5%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 2-1
- Net units
- 0.27
- ROI
- 8.9%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 13
- Record
- 9-4
- Net units
- 0.91
- ROI
- 7.0%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 16. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
San Jose Sharks
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
63:28 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 76 / 51
- Fenwick for / against
- 59 / 36
- Corsi share
- 59.8%
- Fenwick share
- 62.1%
- xG for / against
- 4.69 / 2.73
Defense pair
128:35 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 111 / 133
- Fenwick for / against
- 79 / 95
- Corsi share
- 45.5%
- Fenwick share
- 45.4%
- xG for / against
- 4.57 / 5.46
Vegas Golden Knights
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
110:03 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 111 / 86
- Fenwick for / against
- 82 / 60
- Corsi share
- 56.3%
- Fenwick share
- 57.7%
- xG for / against
- 5.56 / 3.40
Defense pair
156:41 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 177 / 133
- Fenwick for / against
- 136 / 94
- Corsi share
- 57.1%
- Fenwick share
- 59.1%
- xG for / against
- 9.01 / 5.04
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
San Jose Sharks
Expected starter unavailable.
Vegas Golden Knights
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Yaroslav Askarov
San Jose Sharks · Last start: Oct 27
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 158
- Save %
- 91.8
- Goals allowed
- 13
- Close-range shots %
- 35.4
Adin Hill
Vegas Golden Knights · Last start: Oct 27
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 133
- Save %
- 89.5
- Goals allowed
- 14
- Close-range shots %
- 38.3
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 16, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
San Jose Sharks
- xG for / game
- 3.07
- xG against / game
- 3.93
- xG differential / game
- -0.86
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Vegas Golden Knights
- xG for / game
- 3.23
- xG against / game
- 2.77
- xG differential / game
- 0.46
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 16, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
San Jose Sharks
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 58.6
- Corsi share (%)
- 47.0
- Fenwick share (%)
- 45.9
- Faceoff win %
- 48.0
- Penalties / game
- 4.1
Shots / game: 29.0 · Shooting: 9.3% · Avg distance: 34.0 ft
Vegas Golden Knights
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 59.0
- Corsi share (%)
- 50.6
- Fenwick share (%)
- 52.5
- Faceoff win %
- 49.3
- Penalties / game
- 3.2
Shots / game: 29.4 · Shooting: 11.2% · Avg distance: 33.0 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
SJS
|
Metric |
VGK
|
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Points | 19 |
| 0.500 | Points % | 0.679 |
| 37 | Goals for | 51 |
| 45 | Goals against | 39 |
| -8 | Goal differential | 12 |
| L2 | Current streak | W1 |
Road versus home
|
SJS road
|
Metric |
VGK home
|
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Games | 8 |
| 4 | Wins | 6 |
| 9 | Points | 12 |
| -3 | Goal differential | 11 |
Last 10 games
|
SJS
|
Metric |
VGK
|
|---|---|---|
| 4-5-1 | Record | 6-3-1 |
| 9 | Points | 13 |
| 28 | Goals for | 34 |
| 33 | Goals against | 29 |
| -5 | Goal differential | 5 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
SJS
0 wins
10
games reviewed
VGK
10 wins
Total goals22 – 53
Goal differential
-31
/
+31
Goals per game2.2 / 5.3
Shots per game24.6 / 32.6
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
San Jose Sharks
|
7 - 2 | 33 - 20 | View |
| Dec 23, 2025 |
San Jose Sharks
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
2 - 7 | 23 - 26 | View |
| Nov 29, 2025 |
San Jose Sharks
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
3 - 4 | 21 - 24 | View |
| Oct 9, 2025 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
San Jose Sharks
|
4 - 3 | 31 - 23 | View |
| Jan 7, 2025 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
San Jose Sharks
|
4 - 2 | 42 - 21 | View |
| Dec 27, 2024 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
San Jose Sharks
|
6 - 3 | 36 - 25 | View |
| Oct 26, 2024 |
San Jose Sharks
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
3 - 7 | 26 - 42 | View |
| Feb 19, 2024 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
San Jose Sharks
|
4 - 0 | 26 - 29 | View |
| Dec 10, 2023 |
San Jose Sharks
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
4 - 5 | 38 - 27 | View |
| Nov 10, 2023 |
San Jose Sharks
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
0 - 5 | 20 - 39 | View |