Forward trio
87:53 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 70 / 78
- Fenwick for / against
- 50 / 56
- Corsi share
- 47.3%
- Fenwick share
- 47.2%
- xG for / against
- 3.87 / 5.25
San Jose Sharks vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 20, 2026
NHL matchup
San Jose Sharks at Tampa Bay Lightning
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 20, 2026.
January 20, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 20. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
San Jose Sharks
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Defense pair
77:22 together · 6 games
- Corsi for / against
- 66 / 72
- Fenwick for / against
- 47 / 54
- Corsi share
- 47.8%
- Fenwick share
- 46.5%
- xG for / against
- 3.70 / 3.74
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
113:46 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 102 / 84
- Fenwick for / against
- 63 / 60
- Corsi share
- 54.8%
- Fenwick share
- 51.2%
- xG for / against
- 4.50 / 2.96
Defense pair
147:51 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 165 / 104
- Fenwick for / against
- 116 / 76
- Corsi share
- 61.3%
- Fenwick share
- 60.4%
- xG for / against
- 6.76 / 5.67
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Alex Nedeljkovic
San Jose Sharks · Last start: Jan 19
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 131
- Save %
- 90.1
- Goals allowed
- 13
- Close-range shots %
- 38.2
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Jan 18
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 121
- Save %
- 93.4
- Goals allowed
- 8
- Close-range shots %
- 31.4
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 20, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
San Jose Sharks
- xG for / game
- 3.33
- xG against / game
- 3.28
- xG differential / game
- 0.04
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Tampa Bay Lightning
- xG for / game
- 3.52
- xG against / game
- 3.13
- xG differential / game
- 0.39
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 20, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
San Jose Sharks
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 52.1
- Corsi share (%)
- 46.1
- Fenwick share (%)
- 46.4
- Faceoff win %
- 50.3
- Penalties / game
- 4.0
Shots / game: 25.4 · Shooting: 14.2% · Avg distance: 29.3 ft
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 58.9
- Corsi share (%)
- 52.4
- Fenwick share (%)
- 52.0
- Faceoff win %
- 43.5
- Penalties / game
- 4.9
Shots / game: 27.0 · Shooting: 15.9% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
SJS
|
Metric |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Points | 15 |
| 0.500 | Points % | 0.682 |
| 37 | Goals for | 38 |
| 45 | Goals against | 34 |
| -8 | Goal differential | 4 |
| L2 | Current streak | OT1 |
Road versus home
|
SJS road
|
Metric |
TBL home
|
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Games | 5 |
| 4 | Wins | 5 |
| 9 | Points | 10 |
| -3 | Goal differential | 9 |
Last 10 games
|
SJS
|
Metric |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 4-5-1 | Record | 7-2-1 |
| 9 | Points | 15 |
| 28 | Goals for | 37 |
| 33 | Goals against | 29 |
| -5 | Goal differential | 8 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
SJS
2 wins
10
games reviewed
TBL
8 wins
Total goals17 – 46
Goal differential
-29
/
+29
Goals per game1.7 / 4.6
Shots per game24.1 / 29.9
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
San Jose Sharks
|
7 - 3 | 26 - 22 | View |
| Jan 2, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
San Jose Sharks
|
1 - 2 | 25 - 25 | View |
| Dec 5, 2024 |
San Jose Sharks
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 8 | 21 - 35 | View |
| Mar 21, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
San Jose Sharks
|
4 - 1 | 21 - 22 | View |
| Oct 26, 2023 |
San Jose Sharks
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
0 - 6 | 23 - 31 | View |
| Feb 7, 2023 |
San Jose Sharks
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 3 | 22 - 37 | View |
| Oct 29, 2022 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
San Jose Sharks
|
4 - 3 | 26 - 27 | View |
| Feb 1, 2022 |
San Jose Sharks
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
2 - 3 | 21 - 32 | View |
| Jan 22, 2022 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
San Jose Sharks
|
7 - 1 | 31 - 28 | View |
| Feb 1, 2020 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
San Jose Sharks
|
3 - 0 | 35 - 30 | View |