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Pittsburgh Penguins vs Utah Mammoth prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 19, 2026

NHL matchup

Pittsburgh Penguins at Utah Mammoth

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 19, 2026.

October 19, 2026 · 8:00 PM CST
Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

5-6-1

4
Final
Home

Utah Mammoth

8-4-0

5 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Utah Mammoth at 62.1% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Pittsburgh Penguins logo
Away team

Pittsburgh Penguins

37.9%
Fair American +164
Fair decimal 2.64
Best market +163 · BetUS
Market implied 38.0%
Edge -0.1%
Expected value -0.3%
Calculate value
Utah Mammoth logo
Home team

Utah Mammoth

62.1%
Fair American -164
Fair decimal 1.61
Best market -182 · BetRivers
Market implied 64.5%
Edge -2.4%
Expected value -3.8%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 19, 2026.

Utah Mammoth

All Model Picks

Bets
8
Record
5-3
Net units
1.01
ROI
12.6%

Value Picks

Bets
6
Record
4-2
Net units
1.75
ROI
29.1%

Market Favourite

Bets
6
Record
4-2
Net units
0.95
ROI
15.8%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 19. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Pittsburgh Penguins

9 / 9 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

68:00 together · 7 games

xG share50.3%
Corsi for / against
68 / 58
Fenwick for / against
51 / 42
Corsi share
54.0%
Fenwick share
54.8%
xG for / against
3.06 / 3.03
Defense pair

109:36 together · 9 games

xG share57.8%
Corsi for / against
110 / 99
Fenwick for / against
81 / 65
Corsi share
52.6%
Fenwick share
55.5%
xG for / against
6.50 / 4.75
All observed combinations

Utah Mammoth

9 / 9 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

120:42 together · 9 games

xG share59.2%
Corsi for / against
141 / 93
Fenwick for / against
102 / 66
Corsi share
60.3%
Fenwick share
60.7%
xG for / against
6.78 / 4.68
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Arturs Silovs 79.8%
Other eligible goalies
  • Sergei Murashov20.2%

Why Arturs Silovs?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Team win pct before
+0.530
Goalie team start share
+0.416
Started last game
+0.400
Goalie win pct before
+0.391
Prev save pct
-0.277
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 19, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Utah Mammoth

Karel Vejmelka 65.9%
Other eligible goalies

Why Karel Vejmelka?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.730
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.667
Rolling 5 game avg save pct
-0.358
Prev save pct
-0.317
Goalie win pct before
+0.232
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 19, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Sergei Murashov

Pittsburgh Penguins · Last start: Oct 17

4 / 4 appearances covered

Shots faced
120
Save %
88.3
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
30.8

Karel Vejmelka

Utah Mammoth · Last start: Oct 17

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
105
Save %
85.7
Goals allowed
15
Close-range shots %
30.5
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 19, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Pittsburgh Penguins

xG for / game
3.41
xG against / game
3.21
xG differential / game
0.20

9 / 9 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Utah Mammoth

xG for / game
3.70
xG against / game
2.70
xG differential / game
1.00

9 / 9 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 19, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Pittsburgh Penguins

9 / 9 games covered

Attempts / game
58.8
Corsi share (%)
50.6
Fenwick share (%)
51.1
Faceoff win %
44.9
Penalties / game
3.33

Shots / game: 28.3 · Shooting: 11.0% · Avg distance: 30.4 ft

Utah Mammoth

9 / 9 games covered

Attempts / game
66.6
Corsi share (%)
56.5
Fenwick share (%)
56.7
Faceoff win %
52.5
Penalties / game
4.44

Shots / game: 30.2 · Shooting: 12.1% · Avg distance: 31.3 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT
Metric
Utah Mammoth UTA
11Points16
0.458Points %0.667
40Goals for46
40Goals against40
0Goal differential6
W2Current streakW1
Road versus home
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT road
Metric
Utah Mammoth UTA home
7Games5
1Wins4
3Points8
-6Goal differential5
Last 10 games
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT
Metric
Utah Mammoth UTA
3-6-1Record6-4-0
7Points12
27Goals for36
35Goals against39
-8Goal differential-3
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Pittsburgh Penguins PIT 1 wins
2 games reviewed
Utah Mammoth UTA 1 wins
Total goals8 – 8
Goal differential 0 / 0
Goals per game4.0 / 4.0
Shots per game19.5 / 33.0
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 14, 2026
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Utah Mammoth Utah Mammoth
4 - 3 23 - 29 View
Dec 14, 2025
Utah Mammoth Utah Mammoth at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
5 - 4 37 - 16 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings PIT UTA