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Pittsburgh Penguins vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 12, 2026

NHL matchup

Pittsburgh Penguins at Tampa Bay Lightning

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 12, 2026.

December 12, 2026 · 2:30 PM CST
Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

5-6-1

36.4%
at
Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

7-3-1

63.6% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Tampa Bay Lightning at 63.6%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Pittsburgh Penguins logo
Away team

Pittsburgh Penguins

36.4%
Fair American +175
Fair decimal 2.75
Calculate value
Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Home team

Tampa Bay Lightning

63.6%
Fair American -175
Fair decimal 1.57
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 12, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 12. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Pittsburgh Penguins

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

62:36 together · 7 games

xG share45.1%
Corsi for / against
62 / 60
Fenwick for / against
44 / 50
Corsi share
50.8%
Fenwick share
46.8%
xG for / against
3.72 / 4.52
Defense pair

83:42 together · 10 games

xG share41.7%
Corsi for / against
96 / 88
Fenwick for / against
70 / 70
Corsi share
52.2%
Fenwick share
50.0%
xG for / against
3.95 / 5.54
All observed combinations

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

123:37 together · 10 games

xG share61.5%
Corsi for / against
154 / 103
Fenwick for / against
114 / 80
Corsi share
59.9%
Fenwick share
58.8%
xG for / against
7.27 / 4.55
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Arturs Silovs

Pittsburgh Penguins · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
138
Save %
90.6
Goals allowed
13
Close-range shots %
32.6

Dennis Hildeby

Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 24

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
78
Save %
88.5
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
35.9
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 12, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Pittsburgh Penguins

xG for / game
3.15
xG against / game
3.33
xG differential / game
-0.18

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG for / game
3.56
xG against / game
2.79
xG differential / game
0.77

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 12, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Pittsburgh Penguins

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
57.9
Corsi share (%)
50.9
Fenwick share (%)
50.1
Faceoff win %
46.6
Penalties / game
2.9

Shots / game: 26.5 · Shooting: 9.8% · Avg distance: 31.3 ft

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
63.5
Corsi share (%)
55.1
Fenwick share (%)
55.6
Faceoff win %
49.5
Penalties / game
3.7

Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
11Points15
0.458Points %0.682
40Goals for38
40Goals against34
0Goal differential4
W2Current streakOT1
Road versus home
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT road
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL home
7Games5
1Wins5
3Points10
-6Goal differential9
Last 10 games
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
3-6-1Record7-2-1
7Points15
27Goals for37
35Goals against29
-8Goal differential8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Pittsburgh Penguins PIT 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 6 wins
Total goals28 – 38
Goal differential -10 / +10
Goals per game2.8 / 3.8
Shots per game26.3 / 31.8
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 2, 2026
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 6 24 - 33 View
Jan 13, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
2 - 1 31 - 27 View
Dec 4, 2025
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 3 31 - 40 View
Mar 25, 2025
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 6 15 - 27 View
Jan 12, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
5 - 2 19 - 33 View
Nov 19, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
3 - 2 35 - 19 View
Apr 6, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
4 - 5 34 - 28 View
Dec 6, 2023
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 3 25 - 27 View
Nov 30, 2023
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 2 29 - 41 View
Mar 2, 2023
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
5 - 4 32 - 31 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings PIT TBL