Forward trio
84:20 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 69 / 96
- Fenwick for / against
- 54 / 67
- Corsi share
- 41.8%
- Fenwick share
- 44.6%
- xG for / against
- 4.20 / 3.20
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for April 2, 2026
NHL matchup
Pittsburgh Penguins at Tampa Bay Lightning
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for April 2, 2026.
April 2, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Apr 2. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Pittsburgh Penguins
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Defense pair
154:49 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 166 / 143
- Fenwick for / against
- 125 / 113
- Corsi share
- 53.7%
- Fenwick share
- 52.5%
- xG for / against
- 8.40 / 8.13
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
93:22 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 85 / 73
- Fenwick for / against
- 56 / 54
- Corsi share
- 53.8%
- Fenwick share
- 50.9%
- xG for / against
- 3.45 / 2.96
Defense pair
159:34 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 205 / 111
- Fenwick for / against
- 146 / 92
- Corsi share
- 64.9%
- Fenwick share
- 61.3%
- xG for / against
- 8.16 / 5.09
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Stuart Skinner
Pittsburgh Penguins · Last start: Mar 31
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 145
- Save %
- 87.6
- Goals allowed
- 18
- Close-range shots %
- 37.2
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Mar 31
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 121
- Save %
- 89.3
- Goals allowed
- 13
- Close-range shots %
- 27.3
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Apr 2, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Pittsburgh Penguins
- xG for / game
- 3.51
- xG against / game
- 3.46
- xG differential / game
- 0.05
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Tampa Bay Lightning
- xG for / game
- 3.13
- xG against / game
- 2.59
- xG differential / game
- 0.54
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Apr 2, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Pittsburgh Penguins
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 57.8
- Corsi share (%)
- 48.1
- Fenwick share (%)
- 48.4
- Faceoff win %
- 43.6
- Penalties / game
- 3.8
Shots / game: 27.7 · Shooting: 15.2% · Avg distance: 31.1 ft
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 62.9
- Corsi share (%)
- 56.0
- Fenwick share (%)
- 54.0
- Faceoff win %
- 49.7
- Penalties / game
- 5.1
Shots / game: 29.0 · Shooting: 13.4% · Avg distance: 33.1 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
PIT
|
Metric |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Points | 15 |
| 0.458 | Points % | 0.682 |
| 40 | Goals for | 38 |
| 40 | Goals against | 34 |
| 0 | Goal differential | 4 |
| W2 | Current streak | OT1 |
Road versus home
|
PIT road
|
Metric |
TBL home
|
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Games | 5 |
| 1 | Wins | 5 |
| 3 | Points | 10 |
| -6 | Goal differential | 9 |
Last 10 games
|
PIT
|
Metric |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 3-6-1 | Record | 7-2-1 |
| 7 | Points | 15 |
| 27 | Goals for | 37 |
| 35 | Goals against | 29 |
| -8 | Goal differential | 8 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
PIT
5 wins
10
games reviewed
TBL
5 wins
Total goals32 – 35
Goal differential
-3
/
+3
Goals per game3.2 / 3.5
Shots per game27.5 / 31.4
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
2 - 1 | 31 - 27 | View |
| Dec 4, 2025 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 3 | 31 - 40 | View |
| Mar 25, 2025 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 6 | 15 - 27 | View |
| Jan 12, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
5 - 2 | 19 - 33 | View |
| Nov 19, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
3 - 2 | 35 - 19 | View |
| Apr 6, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
4 - 5 | 34 - 28 | View |
| Dec 6, 2023 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 3 | 25 - 27 | View |
| Nov 30, 2023 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 2 | 29 - 41 | View |
| Mar 2, 2023 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
5 - 4 | 32 - 31 | View |
| Feb 26, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
3 - 7 | 29 - 36 | View |