Away team
Pittsburgh Penguins
45.9%
Fair American
+118
Fair decimal
2.18
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Calgary Flames prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for February 19, 2027
NHL matchup
Pittsburgh Penguins at Calgary Flames
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for February 19, 2027.
February 19, 2027
· 7:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Calgary Flames at 54.1%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Calgary Flames
54.1%
Fair American
-118
Fair decimal
1.85
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Feb 19, 2027.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 5-3
- Net units
- 2.59
- ROI
- 32.4%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 4-4
- Net units
- 0.85
- ROI
- 10.7%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 4
- Record
- 2-2
- Net units
- -0.38
- ROI
- -9.5%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 1-2
- Net units
- -0.25
- ROI
- -8.3%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 11
- Record
- 5-6
- Net units
- 1.73
- ROI
- 15.7%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 1
- Record
- 0-1
- Net units
- -1.00
- ROI
- -100.0%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 19. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Pittsburgh Penguins
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
62:36 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 62 / 60
- Fenwick for / against
- 44 / 50
- Corsi share
- 50.8%
- Fenwick share
- 46.8%
- xG for / against
- 3.72 / 4.52
Defense pair
83:42 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 96 / 88
- Fenwick for / against
- 70 / 70
- Corsi share
- 52.2%
- Fenwick share
- 50.0%
- xG for / against
- 3.95 / 5.54
Calgary Flames
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
60:08 together · 8 games
- Corsi for / against
- 69 / 51
- Fenwick for / against
- 52 / 37
- Corsi share
- 57.5%
- Fenwick share
- 58.4%
- xG for / against
- 2.64 / 1.96
Defense pair
113:54 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 126 / 94
- Fenwick for / against
- 93 / 71
- Corsi share
- 57.3%
- Fenwick share
- 56.7%
- xG for / against
- 5.69 / 4.86
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Expected starter unavailable.
Calgary Flames
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Arturs Silovs
Pittsburgh Penguins · Last start: Oct 24
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 138
- Save %
- 90.6
- Goals allowed
- 13
- Close-range shots %
- 32.6
Devin Cooley
Calgary Flames · Last start: Oct 26
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 163
- Save %
- 92.0
- Goals allowed
- 13
- Close-range shots %
- 27.6
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 19, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Pittsburgh Penguins
- xG for / game
- 3.15
- xG against / game
- 3.33
- xG differential / game
- -0.18
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Calgary Flames
- xG for / game
- 2.71
- xG against / game
- 3.20
- xG differential / game
- -0.48
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 19, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Pittsburgh Penguins
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 57.9
- Corsi share (%)
- 50.9
- Fenwick share (%)
- 50.1
- Faceoff win %
- 46.6
- Penalties / game
- 2.9
Shots / game: 26.5 · Shooting: 9.8% · Avg distance: 31.3 ft
Calgary Flames
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 61.7
- Corsi share (%)
- 50.2
- Fenwick share (%)
- 48.7
- Faceoff win %
- 48.5
- Penalties / game
- 4.5
Shots / game: 29.6 · Shooting: 9.1% · Avg distance: 34.2 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
PIT
|
Metric |
CGY
|
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Points | 10 |
| 0.458 | Points % | 0.455 |
| 40 | Goals for | 28 |
| 40 | Goals against | 41 |
| 0 | Goal differential | -13 |
| W2 | Current streak | W4 |
Road versus home
|
PIT road
|
Metric |
CGY home
|
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Games | 7 |
| 1 | Wins | 4 |
| 3 | Points | 8 |
| -6 | Goal differential | -3 |
Last 10 games
|
PIT
|
Metric |
CGY
|
|---|---|---|
| 3-6-1 | Record | 5-5-0 |
| 7 | Points | 10 |
| 27 | Goals for | 27 |
| 35 | Goals against | 35 |
| -8 | Goal differential | -8 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
PIT
4 wins
10
games reviewed
CGY
6 wins
Total goals26 – 26
Goal differential
0
/
0
Goals per game2.6 / 2.6
Shots per game33.2 / 29.4
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2026 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Calgary Flames
|
4 - 1 | 25 - 19 | View |
| Jan 10, 2026 |
Calgary Flames
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
2 - 1 | 25 - 28 | View |
| Nov 30, 2024 |
Calgary Flames
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
2 - 6 | 32 - 43 | View |
| Oct 22, 2024 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Calgary Flames
|
3 - 4 | 38 - 25 | View |
| Mar 2, 2024 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Calgary Flames
|
3 - 4 | 30 - 20 | View |
| Oct 14, 2023 |
Calgary Flames
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
2 - 5 | 36 - 29 | View |
| Nov 23, 2022 |
Calgary Flames
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
1 - 2 | 34 - 39 | View |
| Oct 25, 2022 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Calgary Flames
|
1 - 4 | 33 - 36 | View |
| Nov 29, 2021 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Calgary Flames
|
1 - 2 | 22 - 32 | View |
| Oct 28, 2021 |
Calgary Flames
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
4 - 0 | 35 - 45 | View |