Away team
Philadelphia Flyers
32.1%
Fair American
+212
Fair decimal
3.12
Philadelphia Flyers vs Vegas Golden Knights prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 11, 2027
NHL matchup
Philadelphia Flyers at Vegas Golden Knights
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 11, 2027.
March 11, 2027
· 9:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Vegas Golden Knights at 67.9%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Vegas Golden Knights
67.9%
Fair American
-212
Fair decimal
1.47
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 11, 2027.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Net units
- 0.00
- ROI
- —
Value Picks
- Bets
- 4
- Record
- 2-2
- Net units
- 1.36
- ROI
- 34.0%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 0-3
- Net units
- -3.00
- ROI
- -100.0%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 11
- Record
- 7-4
- Net units
- -0.11
- ROI
- -1.0%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 2
- Record
- 1-1
- Net units
- -0.39
- ROI
- -19.3%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 12
- Record
- 8-4
- Net units
- 0.25
- ROI
- 2.1%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 11. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Philadelphia Flyers
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
49:44 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 40 / 38
- Fenwick for / against
- 22 / 25
- Corsi share
- 51.3%
- Fenwick share
- 46.8%
- xG for / against
- 2.09 / 1.31
Defense pair
106:21 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 96 / 92
- Fenwick for / against
- 69 / 59
- Corsi share
- 51.1%
- Fenwick share
- 53.9%
- xG for / against
- 4.34 / 3.84
Vegas Golden Knights
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
107:16 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 113 / 85
- Fenwick for / against
- 83 / 58
- Corsi share
- 57.1%
- Fenwick share
- 58.9%
- xG for / against
- 5.90 / 3.25
Defense pair
154:42 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 179 / 131
- Fenwick for / against
- 132 / 92
- Corsi share
- 57.7%
- Fenwick share
- 58.9%
- xG for / against
- 9.12 / 4.99
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Philadelphia Flyers
Expected starter unavailable.
Vegas Golden Knights
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Joseph Woll
Philadelphia Flyers · Last start: Oct 24
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 134
- Save %
- 88.8
- Goals allowed
- 15
- Close-range shots %
- 32.1
Carter Hart
Vegas Golden Knights · Last start: Oct 24
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 125
- Save %
- 88.8
- Goals allowed
- 14
- Close-range shots %
- 32.0
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 11, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Philadelphia Flyers
- xG for / game
- 2.65
- xG against / game
- 3.44
- xG differential / game
- -0.79
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Vegas Golden Knights
- xG for / game
- 3.32
- xG against / game
- 2.74
- xG differential / game
- 0.58
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 11, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Philadelphia Flyers
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 50.2
- Corsi share (%)
- 45.7
- Fenwick share (%)
- 44.6
- Faceoff win %
- 49.8
- Penalties / game
- 4.2
Shots / game: 23.3 · Shooting: 8.6% · Avg distance: 31.2 ft
Vegas Golden Knights
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 59.3
- Corsi share (%)
- 51.6
- Fenwick share (%)
- 52.5
- Faceoff win %
- 49.4
- Penalties / game
- 3.6
Shots / game: 29.3 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 33.0 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
PHI
|
Metric |
VGK
|
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Points | 17 |
| 0.346 | Points % | 0.654 |
| 24 | Goals for | 47 |
| 42 | Goals against | 38 |
| -18 | Goal differential | 9 |
| L1 | Current streak | OT1 |
Road versus home
|
PHI road
|
Metric |
VGK home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 7 |
| 1 | Wins | 5 |
| 3 | Points | 10 |
| -8 | Goal differential | 8 |
Last 10 games
|
PHI
|
Metric |
VGK
|
|---|---|---|
| 3-6-1 | Record | 6-3-1 |
| 7 | Points | 13 |
| 20 | Goals for | 36 |
| 29 | Goals against | 30 |
| -9 | Goal differential | 6 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
PHI
4 wins
10
games reviewed
VGK
6 wins
Total goals26 – 31
Goal differential
-5
/
+5
Goals per game2.6 / 3.1
Shots per game26.7 / 32.2
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 |
Philadelphia Flyers
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
2 - 1 | 17 - 25 | View |
| Dec 11, 2025 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
Philadelphia Flyers
|
3 - 2 | 21 - 19 | View |
| Jan 2, 2025 |
Philadelphia Flyers
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
2 - 5 | 25 - 27 | View |
| Nov 25, 2024 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
Philadelphia Flyers
|
5 - 4 | 30 - 36 | View |
| Nov 18, 2023 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
Philadelphia Flyers
|
3 - 4 | 31 - 38 | View |
| Oct 24, 2023 |
Philadelphia Flyers
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
2 - 3 | 28 - 29 | View |
| Mar 14, 2023 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
Philadelphia Flyers
|
5 - 3 | 33 - 30 | View |
| Dec 9, 2022 |
Philadelphia Flyers
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
1 - 2 | 28 - 34 | View |
| Mar 8, 2022 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
Philadelphia Flyers
|
1 - 2 | 48 - 21 | View |
| Dec 10, 2021 |
Philadelphia Flyers
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
4 - 3 | 25 - 44 | View |