Skip to content

Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 25, 2027

NHL matchup

Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 25, 2027.

March 25, 2027 · 5:30 PM CST
Away

Philadelphia Flyers

3-7-4

30.6%
at
Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

7-3-1

69.4% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Tampa Bay Lightning at 69.4%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Philadelphia Flyers logo
Away team

Philadelphia Flyers

30.6%
Fair American +227
Fair decimal 3.27
Calculate value
Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Home team

Tampa Bay Lightning

69.4%
Fair American -227
Fair decimal 1.44
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 25, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 25. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Philadelphia Flyers

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

59:45 together · 8 games

xG share65.6%
Corsi for / against
48 / 43
Fenwick for / against
28 / 29
Corsi share
52.7%
Fenwick share
49.1%
xG for / against
2.99 / 1.57
Defense pair

111:09 together · 8 games

xG share53.0%
Corsi for / against
103 / 97
Fenwick for / against
73 / 63
Corsi share
51.5%
Fenwick share
53.7%
xG for / against
4.75 / 4.21
All observed combinations

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

123:37 together · 10 games

xG share61.5%
Corsi for / against
154 / 103
Fenwick for / against
114 / 80
Corsi share
59.9%
Fenwick share
58.8%
xG for / against
7.27 / 4.55
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Dan Vladar

Philadelphia Flyers · Last start: Oct 27

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
132
Save %
90.2
Goals allowed
13
Close-range shots %
31.1

Dennis Hildeby

Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 24

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
78
Save %
88.5
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
35.9
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 25, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Philadelphia Flyers

xG for / game
2.87
xG against / game
3.21
xG differential / game
-0.34

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG for / game
3.56
xG against / game
2.79
xG differential / game
0.77

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 25, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Philadelphia Flyers

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
53.1
Corsi share (%)
48.5
Fenwick share (%)
47.4
Faceoff win %
48.9
Penalties / game
4.0

Shots / game: 24.9 · Shooting: 8.8% · Avg distance: 30.7 ft

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
63.5
Corsi share (%)
55.1
Fenwick share (%)
55.6
Faceoff win %
49.5
Penalties / game
3.7

Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Philadelphia Flyers PHI
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
10Points15
0.357Points %0.682
27Goals for38
46Goals against34
-19Goal differential4
OT1Current streakOT1
Road versus home
Philadelphia Flyers PHI road
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL home
6Games5
1Wins5
3Points10
-8Goal differential9
Last 10 games
Philadelphia Flyers PHI
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
3-5-2Record7-2-1
8Points15
22Goals for37
29Goals against29
-7Goal differential8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Philadelphia Flyers PHI 3 wins
10 games reviewed
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 7 wins
Total goals19 – 40
Goal differential -21 / +21
Goals per game1.9 / 4.0
Shots per game24.4 / 23.8
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Oct 5, 2026
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 4 14 - 36 View
Jan 12, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
5 - 1 26 - 21 View
Jan 10, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
7 - 2 23 - 20 View
Nov 24, 2025
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
0 - 3 20 - 18 View
Mar 17, 2025
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
0 - 2 21 - 23 View
Mar 13, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
3 - 4 20 - 29 View
Nov 7, 2024
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
2 - 1 31 - 23 View
Mar 9, 2024
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
0 - 7 25 - 26 View
Feb 27, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
2 - 6 22 - 31 View
Jan 23, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
6 - 3 21 - 32 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings PHI TBL