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Ottawa Senators vs Vegas Golden Knights prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 27, 2026

NHL matchup

Ottawa Senators at Vegas Golden Knights

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 27, 2026.

October 27, 2026 · 9:00 PM CST
Away

Ottawa Senators

8-4-0

34.2%
at
Home

Vegas Golden Knights

8-4-1

65.8% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Vegas Golden Knights at 65.8%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Ottawa Senators logo
Away team

Ottawa Senators

34.2%
Fair American +192
Fair decimal 2.92
Best market +125 · FanDuel
Market implied 44.4%
Edge -10.2%
Expected value -23.0%
Calculate value
Vegas Golden Knights logo
Home team

Vegas Golden Knights

65.8%
Fair American -192
Fair decimal 1.52
Best market -150 · FanDuel
Market implied 60.0%
Edge +5.8%
Expected value +9.7%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 27, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 27. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

39:23 together · 8 games

xG share47.8%
Corsi for / against
35 / 53
Fenwick for / against
25 / 39
Corsi share
39.8%
Fenwick share
39.1%
xG for / against
1.87 / 2.05
Defense pair

70:48 together · 9 games

xG share65.9%
Corsi for / against
84 / 68
Fenwick for / against
58 / 39
Corsi share
55.3%
Fenwick share
59.8%
xG for / against
4.13 / 2.14
All observed combinations

Vegas Golden Knights

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

107:16 together · 10 games

xG share64.5%
Corsi for / against
113 / 85
Fenwick for / against
83 / 58
Corsi share
57.1%
Fenwick share
58.9%
xG for / against
5.90 / 3.25
Defense pair

154:42 together · 10 games

xG share64.6%
Corsi for / against
179 / 132
Fenwick for / against
132 / 93
Corsi share
57.6%
Fenwick share
58.7%
xG for / against
9.12 / 5.00
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Ottawa Senators

Samuel Ersson 61.2%
Other eligible goalies

Why Samuel Ersson?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
-0.455
Team played yesterday
-0.271
Prev save pct
-0.217
Started last game
+0.213
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
-0.197
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 26, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Vegas Golden Knights

Carter Hart 58.0%
Other eligible goalies

Why Carter Hart?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Team win pct before
-0.435
Started last game
-0.383
Won previous appearance
-0.187
Days since last start
+0.135
Goalie team start share
+0.135
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 26, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Jonas Johansson

Ottawa Senators · Last start: Oct 24

1 / 1 appearances covered

Shots faced
28
Save %
85.7
Goals allowed
4
Close-range shots %
39.3

Carter Hart

Vegas Golden Knights · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
125
Save %
88.8
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
32.0
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 27, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Ottawa Senators

xG for / game
2.85
xG against / game
2.77
xG differential / game
0.07

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Vegas Golden Knights

xG for / game
3.32
xG against / game
2.74
xG differential / game
0.58

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 27, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.6
Corsi share (%)
48.4
Fenwick share (%)
48.9
Faceoff win %
52.3
Penalties / game
4.9

Shots / game: 25.2 · Shooting: 11.5% · Avg distance: 32.3 ft

Vegas Golden Knights

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
59.3
Corsi share (%)
51.5
Fenwick share (%)
52.4
Faceoff win %
49.4
Penalties / game
3.6

Shots / game: 29.3 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 33.0 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Ottawa Senators OTT
Metric
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
16Points17
0.667Points %0.654
38Goals for47
34Goals against38
4Goal differential9
W1Current streakOT1
Road versus home
Ottawa Senators OTT road
Metric
Vegas Golden Knights VGK home
5Games7
3Wins5
6Points10
3Goal differential8
Last 10 games
Ottawa Senators OTT
Metric
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
6-4-0Record6-3-1
12Points13
31Goals for36
31Goals against30
0Goal differential6
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Ottawa Senators OTT 3 wins
10 games reviewed
Vegas Golden Knights VGK 7 wins
Total goals31 – 38
Goal differential -7 / +7
Goals per game3.1 / 3.8
Shots per game35.5 / 32.4
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Jan 25, 2026
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
1 - 7 20 - 31 View
Nov 26, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
4 - 3 22 - 35 View
Nov 21, 2024
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
3 - 2 32 - 40 View
Oct 25, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
4 - 6 39 - 28 View
Feb 24, 2024
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
3 - 4 29 - 33 View
Dec 17, 2023
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
3 - 6 25 - 31 View
Nov 23, 2022
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
1 - 4 40 - 36 View
Nov 3, 2022
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
5 - 4 32 - 46 View
Mar 6, 2022
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
1 - 2 40 - 42 View
Nov 4, 2021
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
5 - 1 39 - 39 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings OTT VGK