Away team
Ottawa Senators
41.8%
Fair American
+139
Fair decimal
2.39
Ottawa Senators vs Calgary Flames prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for February 21, 2027
NHL matchup
Ottawa Senators at Calgary Flames
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for February 21, 2027.
February 21, 2027
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Calgary Flames at 58.2%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Calgary Flames
58.2%
Fair American
-139
Fair decimal
1.72
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Feb 21, 2027.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 5
- Record
- 3-2
- Net units
- 0.10
- ROI
- 1.9%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 2
- Record
- 1-1
- Net units
- -0.17
- ROI
- -8.7%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 5-3
- Net units
- 0.63
- ROI
- 7.8%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 1-2
- Net units
- -0.25
- ROI
- -8.3%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 11
- Record
- 5-6
- Net units
- 1.73
- ROI
- 15.7%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 1
- Record
- 0-1
- Net units
- -1.00
- ROI
- -100.0%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 21. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Ottawa Senators
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
39:16 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 34 / 43
- Fenwick for / against
- 21 / 39
- Corsi share
- 44.2%
- Fenwick share
- 35.0%
- xG for / against
- 1.84 / 2.49
Defense pair
81:43 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 98 / 76
- Fenwick for / against
- 67 / 46
- Corsi share
- 56.3%
- Fenwick share
- 59.3%
- xG for / against
- 4.60 / 2.72
Calgary Flames
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
60:08 together · 8 games
- Corsi for / against
- 69 / 51
- Fenwick for / against
- 52 / 37
- Corsi share
- 57.5%
- Fenwick share
- 58.4%
- xG for / against
- 2.64 / 1.96
Defense pair
113:54 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 125 / 95
- Fenwick for / against
- 92 / 72
- Corsi share
- 56.8%
- Fenwick share
- 56.1%
- xG for / against
- 5.68 / 4.76
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Ottawa Senators
Expected starter unavailable.
Calgary Flames
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Jonas Johansson
Ottawa Senators · Last start: Oct 27
2 / 2 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 56
- Save %
- 89.3
- Goals allowed
- 6
- Close-range shots %
- 33.9
Devin Cooley
Calgary Flames · Last start: Oct 26
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 163
- Save %
- 92.0
- Goals allowed
- 13
- Close-range shots %
- 27.6
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 21, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Ottawa Senators
- xG for / game
- 2.85
- xG against / game
- 2.73
- xG differential / game
- 0.12
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Calgary Flames
- xG for / game
- 2.71
- xG against / game
- 3.19
- xG differential / game
- -0.47
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 21, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Ottawa Senators
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 56.2
- Corsi share (%)
- 49.4
- Fenwick share (%)
- 48.9
- Faceoff win %
- 52.4
- Penalties / game
- 4.3
Shots / game: 25.3 · Shooting: 10.7% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft
Calgary Flames
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 61.6
- Corsi share (%)
- 50.1
- Fenwick share (%)
- 48.6
- Faceoff win %
- 48.4
- Penalties / game
- 4.5
Shots / game: 29.6 · Shooting: 9.1% · Avg distance: 34.0 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
OTT
|
Metric |
CGY
|
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Points | 10 |
| 0.615 | Points % | 0.455 |
| 39 | Goals for | 28 |
| 38 | Goals against | 41 |
| 1 | Goal differential | -13 |
| L1 | Current streak | W4 |
Road versus home
|
OTT road
|
Metric |
CGY home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 7 |
| 3 | Wins | 4 |
| 6 | Points | 8 |
| 0 | Goal differential | -3 |
Last 10 games
|
OTT
|
Metric |
CGY
|
|---|---|---|
| 6-4-0 | Record | 5-5-0 |
| 12 | Points | 10 |
| 29 | Goals for | 27 |
| 30 | Goals against | 35 |
| -1 | Goal differential | -8 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
OTT
7 wins
10
games reviewed
CGY
3 wins
Total goals31 – 29
Goal differential
+2
/
-2
Goals per game3.1 / 2.9
Shots per game32.2 / 30.6
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Calgary Flames
|
4 - 1 | 37 - 20 | View |
| Oct 30, 2025 |
Calgary Flames
at
Ottawa Senators
|
3 - 4 | 29 - 38 | View |
| Dec 19, 2024 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Calgary Flames
|
3 - 2 | 29 - 32 | View |
| Nov 25, 2024 |
Calgary Flames
at
Ottawa Senators
|
3 - 4 | 27 - 30 | View |
| Jan 9, 2024 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Calgary Flames
|
3 - 6 | 33 - 36 | View |
| Nov 11, 2023 |
Calgary Flames
at
Ottawa Senators
|
1 - 4 | 25 - 38 | View |
| Mar 12, 2023 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Calgary Flames
|
1 - 5 | 31 - 39 | View |
| Feb 13, 2023 |
Calgary Flames
at
Ottawa Senators
|
3 - 4 | 37 - 25 | View |
| Jan 13, 2022 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Calgary Flames
|
4 - 1 | 34 - 28 | View |
| Nov 14, 2021 |
Calgary Flames
at
Ottawa Senators
|
4 - 0 | 33 - 27 | View |