Forward trio
101:05 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 96 / 84
- Fenwick for / against
- 80 / 54
- Corsi share
- 53.3%
- Fenwick share
- 59.7%
- xG for / against
- 4.73 / 2.41
Ottawa Senators vs Calgary Flames prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 5, 2026
NHL matchup
Ottawa Senators at Calgary Flames
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 5, 2026.
March 5, 2026
· 8:00 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 5. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Ottawa Senators
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Defense pair
151:17 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 148 / 109
- Fenwick for / against
- 116 / 78
- Corsi share
- 57.6%
- Fenwick share
- 59.8%
- xG for / against
- 8.29 / 3.87
Calgary Flames
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
75:19 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 88 / 74
- Fenwick for / against
- 58 / 46
- Corsi share
- 54.3%
- Fenwick share
- 55.8%
- xG for / against
- 3.34 / 3.00
Defense pair
114:22 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 126 / 92
- Fenwick for / against
- 81 / 70
- Corsi share
- 57.8%
- Fenwick share
- 53.6%
- xG for / against
- 5.31 / 4.33
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Linus Ullmark
Ottawa Senators · Last start: Mar 3
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 123
- Save %
- 90.2
- Goals allowed
- 12
- Close-range shots %
- 31.7
Dustin Wolf
Calgary Flames · Last start: Mar 3
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 134
- Save %
- 91.8
- Goals allowed
- 11
- Close-range shots %
- 25.4
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 5, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Ottawa Senators
- xG for / game
- 3.31
- xG against / game
- 2.36
- xG differential / game
- 0.95
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Calgary Flames
- xG for / game
- 3.08
- xG against / game
- 3.36
- xG differential / game
- -0.28
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 5, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Ottawa Senators
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 58.9
- Corsi share (%)
- 53.5
- Fenwick share (%)
- 55.8
- Faceoff win %
- 50.1
- Penalties / game
- 3.3
Shots / game: 29.9 · Shooting: 11.7% · Avg distance: 31.6 ft
Calgary Flames
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 65.8
- Corsi share (%)
- 50.5
- Fenwick share (%)
- 50.9
- Faceoff win %
- 47.9
- Penalties / game
- 3.6
Shots / game: 30.1 · Shooting: 7.0% · Avg distance: 32.9 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
OTT
|
Metric |
CGY
|
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Points | 10 |
| 0.615 | Points % | 0.417 |
| 39 | Goals for | 28 |
| 38 | Goals against | 45 |
| 1 | Goal differential | -17 |
| L1 | Current streak | L1 |
Road versus home
|
OTT road
|
Metric |
CGY home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 7 |
| 3 | Wins | 4 |
| 6 | Points | 8 |
| 0 | Goal differential | -3 |
Last 10 games
|
OTT
|
Metric |
CGY
|
|---|---|---|
| 6-4-0 | Record | 5-5-0 |
| 12 | Points | 10 |
| 29 | Goals for | 26 |
| 30 | Goals against | 35 |
| -1 | Goal differential | -9 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
OTT
6 wins
10
games reviewed
CGY
4 wins
Total goals28 – 34
Goal differential
-6
/
+6
Goals per game2.8 / 3.4
Shots per game30.5 / 32.2
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2025 |
Calgary Flames
at
Ottawa Senators
|
3 - 4 | 29 - 38 | View |
| Dec 19, 2024 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Calgary Flames
|
3 - 2 | 29 - 32 | View |
| Nov 25, 2024 |
Calgary Flames
at
Ottawa Senators
|
3 - 4 | 27 - 30 | View |
| Jan 9, 2024 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Calgary Flames
|
3 - 6 | 33 - 36 | View |
| Nov 11, 2023 |
Calgary Flames
at
Ottawa Senators
|
1 - 4 | 25 - 38 | View |
| Mar 12, 2023 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Calgary Flames
|
1 - 5 | 31 - 39 | View |
| Feb 13, 2023 |
Calgary Flames
at
Ottawa Senators
|
3 - 4 | 37 - 25 | View |
| Jan 13, 2022 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Calgary Flames
|
4 - 1 | 34 - 28 | View |
| Nov 14, 2021 |
Calgary Flames
at
Ottawa Senators
|
4 - 0 | 33 - 27 | View |
| May 9, 2021 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Calgary Flames
|
1 - 6 | 20 - 36 | View |