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New York Islanders vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 13, 2027

NHL matchup

New York Islanders at Tampa Bay Lightning

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 13, 2027.

March 13, 2027 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

New York Islanders

5-4-2

31.7%
at
Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

7-3-1

68.3% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Tampa Bay Lightning at 68.3%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

New York Islanders logo
Away team

New York Islanders

31.7%
Fair American +215
Fair decimal 3.15
Calculate value
Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Home team

Tampa Bay Lightning

68.3%
Fair American -215
Fair decimal 1.46
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 13, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 13. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

New York Islanders

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

54:55 together · 7 games

xG share46.9%
Corsi for / against
51 / 56
Fenwick for / against
37 / 43
Corsi share
47.7%
Fenwick share
46.3%
xG for / against
2.96 / 3.35
Defense pair

121:23 together · 10 games

xG share56.3%
Corsi for / against
126 / 86
Fenwick for / against
86 / 63
Corsi share
59.4%
Fenwick share
57.7%
xG for / against
5.72 / 4.44
All observed combinations

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

123:37 together · 10 games

xG share61.5%
Corsi for / against
154 / 103
Fenwick for / against
114 / 80
Corsi share
59.9%
Fenwick share
58.8%
xG for / against
7.27 / 4.55
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Ilya Sorokin

New York Islanders · Last start: Oct 25

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
135
Save %
88.9
Goals allowed
15
Close-range shots %
28.1

Dennis Hildeby

Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 24

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
78
Save %
88.5
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
35.9
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 13, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

New York Islanders

xG for / game
2.97
xG against / game
3.30
xG differential / game
-0.33

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG for / game
3.56
xG against / game
2.79
xG differential / game
0.77

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 13, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

New York Islanders

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.0
Corsi share (%)
49.2
Fenwick share (%)
48.7
Faceoff win %
56.0
Penalties / game
4.5

Shots / game: 25.9 · Shooting: 12.0% · Avg distance: 33.5 ft

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
63.5
Corsi share (%)
55.1
Fenwick share (%)
55.6
Faceoff win %
49.5
Penalties / game
3.7

Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
New York Islanders NYI
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
12Points15
0.545Points %0.682
32Goals for38
29Goals against34
3Goal differential4
L1Current streakOT1
Road versus home
New York Islanders NYI road
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL home
5Games5
1Wins5
3Points10
-5Goal differential9
Last 10 games
New York Islanders NYI
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
5-3-2Record7-2-1
12Points15
31Goals for37
27Goals against29
4Goal differential8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

New York Islanders NYI 5 wins
10 games reviewed
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 5 wins
Total goals26 – 29
Goal differential -3 / +3
Goals per game2.6 / 2.9
Shots per game27.2 / 28.3
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Oct 10, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders New York Islanders
5 - 3 26 - 23 View
Dec 13, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders New York Islanders
2 - 3 34 - 17 View
Dec 6, 2025
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
2 - 0 19 - 32 View
Dec 2, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders New York Islanders
1 - 2 31 - 24 View
Apr 1, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders New York Islanders
4 - 1 24 - 29 View
Mar 29, 2025
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 5 38 - 24 View
Feb 1, 2025
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 2 36 - 31 View
Mar 30, 2024
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 4 28 - 40 View
Feb 24, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders New York Islanders
4 - 2 21 - 34 View
Feb 8, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders New York Islanders
2 - 6 20 - 24 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings NYI TBL