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New Jersey Devils vs Dallas Stars prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 27, 2026

NHL matchup

New Jersey Devils at Dallas Stars

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 27, 2026.

October 27, 2026 · 7:00 PM CST
Away

New Jersey Devils

7-4-0

51.4% Model pick
at
Home

Dallas Stars

7-3-1

48.6%
Model V2 pick: New Jersey Devils at 51.4%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

New Jersey Devils logo
Away team

New Jersey Devils

51.4%
Fair American -106
Fair decimal 1.95
Best market +114 · FanDuel
Market implied 46.7%
Edge +4.7%
Expected value +10.0%
Calculate value
Dallas Stars logo
Home team

Dallas Stars

48.6%
Fair American +106
Fair decimal 2.06
Best market -137 · FanDuel
Market implied 57.8%
Edge -9.2%
Expected value -15.9%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 27, 2026.

Dallas Stars

All Model Picks

Bets
3
Record
2-1
Net units
0.09
ROI
3.1%

Value Picks

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Net units
0.00
ROI
—

Market Favourite

Bets
9
Record
6-3
Net units
0.55
ROI
6.1%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 27. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

New Jersey Devils

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

74:30 together · 8 games

xG share72.8%
Corsi for / against
102 / 54
Fenwick for / against
67 / 37
Corsi share
65.4%
Fenwick share
64.4%
xG for / against
5.68 / 2.12
Defense pair

159:23 together · 10 games

xG share59.0%
Corsi for / against
196 / 128
Fenwick for / against
127 / 85
Corsi share
60.5%
Fenwick share
59.9%
xG for / against
7.59 / 5.27
All observed combinations

Dallas Stars

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

52:30 together · 7 games

xG share74.6%
Corsi for / against
52 / 43
Fenwick for / against
36 / 23
Corsi share
54.7%
Fenwick share
61.0%
xG for / against
2.76 / 0.94
Defense pair

96:24 together · 10 games

xG share58.8%
Corsi for / against
99 / 73
Fenwick for / against
66 / 48
Corsi share
57.6%
Fenwick share
57.9%
xG for / against
3.83 / 2.68
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

New Jersey Devils

Jake Allen 92.0%
Other eligible goalies

Why Jake Allen?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.852
Team win pct before
-0.387
Days since last start
+0.372
Started last game
-0.363
Goalie win pct before
+0.307
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 26, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Dallas Stars

Jake Oettinger 72.5%
Other eligible goalies

Why Jake Oettinger?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.941
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.402
Consecutive starts
-0.365
Goalie win pct before
+0.275
Team win pct before
-0.262
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 26, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Jake Allen

New Jersey Devils · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
120
Save %
89.2
Goals allowed
13
Close-range shots %
26.7

Jake Oettinger

Dallas Stars · Last start: Oct 25

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
103
Save %
90.3
Goals allowed
10
Close-range shots %
34.0
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 27, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

New Jersey Devils

xG for / game
3.50
xG against / game
2.42
xG differential / game
1.08

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Dallas Stars

xG for / game
3.33
xG against / game
2.56
xG differential / game
0.77

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 27, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

New Jersey Devils

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
68.8
Corsi share (%)
58.0
Fenwick share (%)
57.7
Faceoff win %
51.3
Penalties / game
2.7

Shots / game: 33.1 · Shooting: 10.0% · Avg distance: 30.3 ft

Dallas Stars

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
58.0
Corsi share (%)
53.6
Fenwick share (%)
54.7
Faceoff win %
55.7
Penalties / game
4.0

Shots / game: 28.0 · Shooting: 11.1% · Avg distance: 31.0 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
New Jersey Devils NJD
Metric
Dallas Stars DAL
14Points15
0.636Points %0.682
36Goals for32
32Goals against20
4Goal differential12
W3Current streakW5
Road versus home
New Jersey Devils NJD road
Metric
Dallas Stars DAL home
3Games6
1Wins4
2Points8
-7Goal differential5
Last 10 games
New Jersey Devils NJD
Metric
Dallas Stars DAL
6-4-0Record7-2-1
12Points15
33Goals for32
30Goals against16
3Goal differential16
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

New Jersey Devils NJD 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Dallas Stars DAL 6 wins
Total goals27 – 35
Goal differential -8 / +8
Goals per game2.7 / 3.5
Shots per game29.2 / 30.2
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 24, 2026
New Jersey Devils New Jersey Devils at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
6 - 4 25 - 27 View
Dec 3, 2025
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at New Jersey Devils New Jersey Devils
3 - 0 28 - 30 View
Mar 4, 2025
New Jersey Devils New Jersey Devils at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
3 - 4 28 - 21 View
Feb 22, 2025
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at New Jersey Devils New Jersey Devils
4 - 2 26 - 33 View
Mar 14, 2024
New Jersey Devils New Jersey Devils at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
6 - 2 20 - 37 View
Jan 20, 2024
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at New Jersey Devils New Jersey Devils
6 - 2 36 - 31 View
Jan 27, 2023
New Jersey Devils New Jersey Devils at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
3 - 2 29 - 35 View
Dec 13, 2022
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at New Jersey Devils New Jersey Devils
4 - 1 32 - 36 View
Apr 9, 2022
New Jersey Devils New Jersey Devils at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
3 - 1 23 - 28 View
Jan 25, 2022
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at New Jersey Devils New Jersey Devils
5 - 1 32 - 37 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings NJD DAL