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Nashville Predators vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 6, 2026

NHL matchup

Nashville Predators at Toronto Maple Leafs

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 6, 2026.

October 6, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Nashville Predators

4-3-4

4 Model pick
Final
Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-4-2

5
Model V2 pick: Nashville Predators at 53.1% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Nashville Predators logo
Away team

Nashville Predators

53.1%
Fair American -113
Fair decimal 1.88
Best market +133 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 42.9%
Edge +10.2%
Expected value +23.7%
Calculate value
Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Home team

Toronto Maple Leafs

46.9%
Fair American +113
Fair decimal 2.13
Best market -150 · BetMGM
Market implied 60.0%
Edge -13.1%
Expected value -21.8%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 6, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 6. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Nashville Predators

2 / 2 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

25:45 together · 2 games

xG share46.4%
Corsi for / against
24 / 25
Fenwick for / against
18 / 19
Corsi share
49.0%
Fenwick share
48.6%
xG for / against
0.87 / 1.00
All observed combinations

Toronto Maple Leafs

3 / 3 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

36:53 together · 3 games

xG share54.0%
Corsi for / against
43 / 31
Fenwick for / against
36 / 24
Corsi share
58.1%
Fenwick share
60.0%
xG for / against
1.94 / 1.65
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Juuse Saros

Nashville Predators · Last start: Oct 3

2 / 2 appearances covered

Shots faced
60
Save %
93.3
Goals allowed
4
Close-range shots %
28.3

Sergei Bobrovsky

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 3

2 / 2 appearances covered

Shots faced
53
Save %
88.7
Goals allowed
6
Close-range shots %
35.8
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 6, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Nashville Predators

xG for / game
1.94
xG against / game
2.76
xG differential / game
-0.82

2 / 2 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
2.80
xG against / game
3.26
xG differential / game
-0.45

3 / 3 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 6, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Nashville Predators

2 / 2 games covered

Attempts / game
49.0
Corsi share (%)
43.6
Fenwick share (%)
43.5
Faceoff win %
53.0
Penalties / game
2.5

Shots / game: 23.0 · Shooting: 6.5% · Avg distance: 34.1 ft

Toronto Maple Leafs

3 / 3 games covered

Attempts / game
55.3
Corsi share (%)
48.4
Fenwick share (%)
48.8
Faceoff win %
47.0
Penalties / game
4.33

Shots / game: 27.7 · Shooting: 7.2% · Avg distance: 30.0 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Nashville Predators NSH
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
12Points16
0.545Points %0.615
31Goals for50
35Goals against41
-4Goal differential9
W1Current streakW4
Road versus home
Nashville Predators NSH road
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR home
5Games8
1Wins4
5Points9
-6Goal differential-1
Last 10 games
Nashville Predators NSH
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
4-2-4Record6-2-2
12Points14
30Goals for44
32Goals against34
-2Goal differential10
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Nashville Predators NSH 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 6 wins
Total goals28 – 32
Goal differential -4 / +4
Goals per game2.8 / 3.2
Shots per game27.8 / 32.0
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Dec 20, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Nashville Predators Nashville Predators
3 - 5 22 - 34 View
Oct 14, 2025
Nashville Predators Nashville Predators at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 7 30 - 28 View
Mar 22, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Nashville Predators Nashville Predators
2 - 5 26 - 32 View
Dec 4, 2024
Nashville Predators Nashville Predators at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
2 - 3 24 - 28 View
Dec 9, 2023
Nashville Predators Nashville Predators at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
0 - 4 18 - 37 View
Oct 28, 2023
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Nashville Predators Nashville Predators
2 - 3 35 - 24 View
Mar 26, 2023
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Nashville Predators Nashville Predators
3 - 2 34 - 25 View
Jan 11, 2023
Nashville Predators Nashville Predators at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
1 - 2 33 - 35 View
Mar 19, 2022
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Nashville Predators Nashville Predators
3 - 6 41 - 34 View
Nov 16, 2021
Nashville Predators Nashville Predators at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
0 - 3 24 - 34 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
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