Away team
Montréal Canadiens
39.7%
Fair American
+152
Fair decimal
2.52
Montréal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 31, 2026
NHL matchup
Montréal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 31, 2026.
December 31, 2026
· 1:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Tampa Bay Lightning at 60.3%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Tampa Bay Lightning
60.3%
Fair American
-152
Fair decimal
1.66
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 31, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 6-1
- Net units
- 3.39
- ROI
- 48.4%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 2-1
- Net units
- 0.83
- ROI
- 27.6%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 9
- Record
- 6-3
- Net units
- 1.39
- ROI
- 15.4%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 5-1
- Net units
- 1.45
- ROI
- 24.2%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Net units
- 0.00
- ROI
- —
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 6-2
- Net units
- 1.06
- ROI
- 13.3%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 31. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Montréal Canadiens
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
89:23 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 107 / 48
- Fenwick for / against
- 75 / 38
- Corsi share
- 69.0%
- Fenwick share
- 66.4%
- xG for / against
- 5.82 / 1.98
Defense pair
113:21 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 167 / 83
- Fenwick for / against
- 132 / 61
- Corsi share
- 66.8%
- Fenwick share
- 68.4%
- xG for / against
- 8.36 / 4.82
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
95:17 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 85 / 83
- Fenwick for / against
- 64 / 59
- Corsi share
- 50.6%
- Fenwick share
- 52.0%
- xG for / against
- 3.69 / 3.31
Defense pair
123:37 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 154 / 103
- Fenwick for / against
- 114 / 80
- Corsi share
- 59.9%
- Fenwick share
- 58.8%
- xG for / against
- 7.27 / 4.55
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Montréal Canadiens
Expected starter unavailable.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Jacob Fowler
Montréal Canadiens · Last start: Oct 27
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 143
- Save %
- 94.4
- Goals allowed
- 8
- Close-range shots %
- 33.6
Dennis Hildeby
Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 24
3 / 3 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 78
- Save %
- 88.5
- Goals allowed
- 9
- Close-range shots %
- 35.9
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 31, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Montréal Canadiens
- xG for / game
- 3.40
- xG against / game
- 3.23
- xG differential / game
- 0.17
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Tampa Bay Lightning
- xG for / game
- 3.56
- xG against / game
- 2.79
- xG differential / game
- 0.77
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 31, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Montréal Canadiens
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 60.6
- Corsi share (%)
- 52.1
- Fenwick share (%)
- 52.7
- Faceoff win %
- 51.3
- Penalties / game
- 5.2
Shots / game: 28.8 · Shooting: 9.7% · Avg distance: 33.9 ft
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 63.5
- Corsi share (%)
- 55.1
- Fenwick share (%)
- 55.6
- Faceoff win %
- 49.5
- Penalties / game
- 3.7
Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
MTL
|
Metric |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Points | 15 |
| 0.667 | Points % | 0.682 |
| 38 | Goals for | 38 |
| 36 | Goals against | 34 |
| 2 | Goal differential | 4 |
| W3 | Current streak | OT1 |
Road versus home
|
MTL road
|
Metric |
TBL home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 5 |
| 4 | Wins | 5 |
| 9 | Points | 10 |
| 5 | Goal differential | 9 |
Last 10 games
|
MTL
|
Metric |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 6-3-1 | Record | 7-2-1 |
| 13 | Points | 15 |
| 30 | Goals for | 37 |
| 28 | Goals against | 29 |
| 2 | Goal differential | 8 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
MTL
4 wins
10
games reviewed
TBL
6 wins
Total goals32 – 37
Goal differential
-5
/
+5
Goals per game3.2 / 3.7
Shots per game29.1 / 26.7
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2026 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
1 - 2 | 18 - 21 | View |
| Mar 31, 2026 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 1 | 23 - 37 | View |
| Dec 28, 2025 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 5 | 36 - 22 | View |
| Dec 9, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
6 - 1 | 27 - 27 | View |
| Feb 9, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
5 - 3 | 21 - 35 | View |
| Jan 21, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
2 - 3 | 35 - 22 | View |
| Dec 29, 2024 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
5 - 2 | 37 - 23 | View |
| Apr 4, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
7 - 4 | 35 - 30 | View |
| Mar 2, 2024 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
3 - 4 | 31 - 29 | View |
| Dec 31, 2023 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
3 - 4 | 29 - 20 | View |