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Montréal Canadiens vs Pittsburgh Penguins prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 3, 2026

NHL matchup

Montréal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 3, 2026.

October 3, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Montréal Canadiens

7-3-2

5
Final
Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

5-6-1

6 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Pittsburgh Penguins at 52.1% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Montréal Canadiens logo
Away team

Montréal Canadiens

47.9%
Fair American +109
Fair decimal 2.09
Best market -122 · FanDuel
Market implied 55.0%
Edge -7.1%
Expected value -12.8%
Calculate value
Pittsburgh Penguins logo
Home team

Pittsburgh Penguins

52.1%
Fair American -109
Fair decimal 1.92
Best market +115 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 46.5%
Edge +5.6%
Expected value +12.0%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 3, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 3. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Montréal Canadiens

1 / 1 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

10:27 together · 1 game

xG share18.3%
Corsi for / against
8 / 10
Fenwick for / against
6 / 10
Corsi share
44.4%
Fenwick share
37.5%
xG for / against
0.16 / 0.70
Defense pair

14:03 together · 1 game

xG share29.3%
Corsi for / against
12 / 13
Fenwick for / against
9 / 10
Corsi share
48.0%
Fenwick share
47.4%
xG for / against
0.31 / 0.74
All observed combinations

Pittsburgh Penguins

1 / 1 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

14:15 together · 1 game

xG share91.4%
Corsi for / against
17 / 9
Fenwick for / against
15 / 5
Corsi share
65.4%
Fenwick share
75.0%
xG for / against
1.18 / 0.11
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Jakub Dobes

Montréal Canadiens · Last start: Sep 29

1 / 1 appearances covered

Shots faced
28
Save %
92.9
Goals allowed
2
Close-range shots %
35.7

Arturs Silovs

Pittsburgh Penguins · Last start: Sep 30

1 / 1 appearances covered

Shots faced
19
Save %
100.0
Goals allowed
0
Close-range shots %
10.5
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 3, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Montréal Canadiens

xG for / game
2.41
xG against / game
2.69
xG differential / game
-0.29

1 / 1 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Pittsburgh Penguins

xG for / game
5.02
xG against / game
1.64
xG differential / game
3.38

1 / 1 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 3, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Montréal Canadiens

1 / 1 games covered

Attempts / game
55.0
Corsi share (%)
52.4
Fenwick share (%)
50.6
Faceoff win %
60.4
Penalties / game
4.0

Shots / game: 24.0 · Shooting: 12.5% · Avg distance: 37.6 ft

Pittsburgh Penguins

1 / 1 games covered

Attempts / game
62.0
Corsi share (%)
56.9
Fenwick share (%)
60.9
Faceoff win %
37.9
Penalties / game
4.0

Shots / game: 38.0 · Shooting: 18.4% · Avg distance: 31.3 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Montréal Canadiens MTL
Metric
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT
16Points11
0.667Points %0.458
38Goals for40
36Goals against40
2Goal differential0
W3Current streakW2
Road versus home
Montréal Canadiens MTL road
Metric
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT home
6Games5
4Wins4
9Points8
5Goal differential6
Last 10 games
Montréal Canadiens MTL
Metric
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT
6-3-1Record3-6-1
13Points7
30Goals for27
28Goals against35
2Goal differential-8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Montréal Canadiens MTL 3 wins
10 games reviewed
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT 7 wins
Total goals29 – 39
Goal differential -10 / +10
Goals per game2.9 / 3.9
Shots per game27.4 / 32.0
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Dec 21, 2025
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
3 - 4 25 - 31 View
Dec 20, 2025
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
0 - 4 31 - 21 View
Dec 11, 2025
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
4 - 2 29 - 38 View
Dec 12, 2024
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
9 - 2 33 - 23 View
Nov 2, 2024
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
1 - 3 26 - 24 View
Oct 14, 2024
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
6 - 3 30 - 28 View
Feb 22, 2024
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
1 - 4 31 - 27 View
Jan 27, 2024
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
2 - 3 27 - 33 View
Dec 13, 2023
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
4 - 3 30 - 42 View
Mar 14, 2023
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
6 - 4 22 - 43 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings MTL PIT