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Montréal Canadiens vs Philadelphia Flyers prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 16, 2027

NHL matchup

Montréal Canadiens at Philadelphia Flyers

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 16, 2027.

January 16, 2027 · 7:00 PM MBT
Away

Montréal Canadiens

11-3-4

58.6% Model pick
at
Home

Philadelphia Flyers

5-10-5

41.4%
Model V2 pick: Montréal Canadiens at 58.6%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Montréal Canadiens logo
Away team

Montréal Canadiens

58.6%
Fair American -142
Fair decimal 1.71
Calculate value
Philadelphia Flyers logo
Home team

Philadelphia Flyers

41.4%
Fair American +142
Fair decimal 2.42
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Jan 16, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 16. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Montréal Canadiens

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

126:13 together · 10 games

xG share59.4%
Corsi for / against
157 / 115
Fenwick for / against
112 / 84
Corsi share
57.7%
Fenwick share
57.1%
xG for / against
7.47 / 5.12
All observed combinations

Philadelphia Flyers

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

76:15 together · 9 games

xG share55.6%
Corsi for / against
55 / 68
Fenwick for / against
33 / 41
Corsi share
44.7%
Fenwick share
44.6%
xG for / against
2.69 / 2.14
Defense pair

106:10 together · 10 games

xG share49.9%
Corsi for / against
95 / 92
Fenwick for / against
69 / 66
Corsi share
50.8%
Fenwick share
51.1%
xG for / against
4.73 / 4.75
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Jan 16, 2027. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Philadelphia Flyers

D. Vladar
GP
10
Starts
10
Wins
3
Save %
0.880
GAA
3.27
J. Woll
GP
10
Starts
10
Wins
2
Save %
0.901
GAA
2.91
Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Jacob Fowler

Montréal Canadiens · Last start: Nov 10

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
174
Save %
92.5
Goals allowed
13
Close-range shots %
35.6

Joseph Woll

Philadelphia Flyers · Last start: Nov 9

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
129
Save %
88.4
Goals allowed
15
Close-range shots %
31.0
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 16, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Montréal Canadiens

xG for / game
3.28
xG against / game
3.43
xG differential / game
-0.16

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Philadelphia Flyers

xG for / game
3.06
xG against / game
3.11
xG differential / game
-0.04

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 16, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Montréal Canadiens

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
56.5
Corsi share (%)
48.0
Fenwick share (%)
48.6
Faceoff win %
52.6
Penalties / game
5.0

Shots / game: 26.5 · Shooting: 13.2% · Avg distance: 34.5 ft

Philadelphia Flyers

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
56.8
Corsi share (%)
50.5
Fenwick share (%)
49.7
Faceoff win %
50.6
Penalties / game
3.8

Shots / game: 26.3 · Shooting: 11.8% · Avg distance: 29.5 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Jan 16, 2027.

Montréal Canadiens

K. Dach Hot · +0.63 P/GP

3 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 1.00 points/game
0.37 points/game across 107 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
1
Points
3
Shots / game
1.7
C. Caufield Cold · -0.58 P/GP

5 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 0.40 points/game
0.98 points/game across 175 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
1
Points
2
Shots / game
3.8
N. Dobson Hot · +0.45 P/GP

4 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 1.00 points/game
0.55 points/game across 165 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
3
Points
4
Shots / game
2.8
J. Anderson Hot · +0.41 P/GP

4 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 0.75 points/game
0.34 points/game across 166 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
3
Points
3
Shots / game
1.0
O. Kapanen Cold · -0.39 P/GP

5 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 0.00 points/game
0.39 points/game across 106 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.0

Philadelphia Flyers

M. Michkov Hot · +0.71 P/GP

5 games vs Montréal Canadiens · 1.40 points/game
0.69 points/game across 175 games vs other opponents

Goals
3
Assists
4
Points
7
Shots / game
4.2
T. Zegras Hot · +0.63 P/GP

3 games vs Montréal Canadiens · 1.33 points/game
0.70 points/game across 155 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
3
Points
4
Shots / game
2.0
T. Konecny Hot · +0.53 P/GP

5 games vs Montréal Canadiens · 1.40 points/game
0.87 points/game across 164 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
5
Points
7
Shots / game
3.8
S. Couturier Hot · +0.52 P/GP

5 games vs Montréal Canadiens · 1.00 points/game
0.48 points/game across 172 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
3
Points
5
Shots / game
3.4
C. York Hot · +0.47 P/GP

4 games vs Montréal Canadiens · 0.75 points/game
0.28 points/game across 149 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
2
Points
3
Shots / game
0.8
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Montréal Canadiens MTL
Metric
Philadelphia Flyers PHI
26Points15
0.722Points %0.375
62Goals for45
55Goals against66
7Goal differential-21
OT1Current streakW1
Road versus home
Montréal Canadiens MTL road
Metric
Philadelphia Flyers PHI home
8Games10
6Wins3
13Points9
10Goal differential-10
Last 10 games
Montréal Canadiens MTL
Metric
Philadelphia Flyers PHI
7-0-3Record4-4-2
17Points10
35Goals for31
25Goals against32
10Goal differential-1
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Montréal Canadiens MTL 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Philadelphia Flyers PHI 6 wins
Total goals35 – 34
Goal differential +1 / -1
Goals per game3.5 / 3.4
Shots per game24.6 / 30.0
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 14, 2026
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
2 - 4 29 - 25 View
Dec 16, 2025
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
4 - 1 21 - 22 View
Nov 4, 2025
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
5 - 4 42 - 20 View
Apr 5, 2025
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
2 - 3 24 - 26 View
Mar 27, 2025
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
4 - 6 30 - 30 View
Oct 27, 2024
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
4 - 3 24 - 26 View
Apr 9, 2024
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
3 - 9 36 - 30 View
Mar 28, 2024
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
1 - 4 30 - 17 View
Jan 10, 2024
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
2 - 3 19 - 39 View
Mar 28, 2023
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
2 - 3 29 - 27 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings MTL PHI