Away team
Montréal Canadiens
52.2%
Fair American
-109
Fair decimal
1.92
Montréal Canadiens vs Calgary Flames prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 28, 2027
NHL matchup
Montréal Canadiens at Calgary Flames
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 28, 2027.
January 28, 2027
· 7:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Montréal Canadiens at 52.2%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Calgary Flames
47.8%
Fair American
+109
Fair decimal
2.09
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Jan 28, 2027.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 6-1
- Net units
- 3.39
- ROI
- 48.4%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 2-1
- Net units
- 0.83
- ROI
- 27.6%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 9
- Record
- 6-3
- Net units
- 1.39
- ROI
- 15.4%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 1-2
- Net units
- -0.25
- ROI
- -8.3%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 10
- Record
- 4-6
- Net units
- 0.40
- ROI
- 4.0%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 1
- Record
- 0-1
- Net units
- -1.00
- ROI
- -100.0%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 28. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Montréal Canadiens
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
82:28 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 99 / 45
- Fenwick for / against
- 71 / 35
- Corsi share
- 68.8%
- Fenwick share
- 67.0%
- xG for / against
- 5.26 / 1.88
Defense pair
108:21 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 165 / 82
- Fenwick for / against
- 127 / 61
- Corsi share
- 66.8%
- Fenwick share
- 67.6%
- xG for / against
- 7.88 / 4.78
Calgary Flames
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
53:06 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 58 / 49
- Fenwick for / against
- 42 / 35
- Corsi share
- 54.2%
- Fenwick share
- 54.5%
- xG for / against
- 2.28 / 1.88
Defense pair
112:12 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 125 / 98
- Fenwick for / against
- 91 / 73
- Corsi share
- 56.1%
- Fenwick share
- 55.5%
- xG for / against
- 5.70 / 4.83
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Montréal Canadiens
Expected starter unavailable.
Calgary Flames
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Jacob Fowler
Montréal Canadiens · Last start: Oct 25
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 127
- Save %
- 93.7
- Goals allowed
- 8
- Close-range shots %
- 27.6
Devin Cooley
Calgary Flames · Last start: Oct 24
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 159
- Save %
- 91.2
- Goals allowed
- 14
- Close-range shots %
- 26.4
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 28, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Montréal Canadiens
- xG for / game
- 3.47
- xG against / game
- 3.11
- xG differential / game
- 0.36
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Calgary Flames
- xG for / game
- 2.61
- xG against / game
- 3.37
- xG differential / game
- -0.76
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 28, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Montréal Canadiens
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 62.6
- Corsi share (%)
- 54.2
- Fenwick share (%)
- 54.5
- Faceoff win %
- 52.8
- Penalties / game
- 5.5
Shots / game: 29.2 · Shooting: 10.6% · Avg distance: 33.2 ft
Calgary Flames
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 61.2
- Corsi share (%)
- 49.4
- Fenwick share (%)
- 47.9
- Faceoff win %
- 49.5
- Penalties / game
- 4.6
Shots / game: 28.7 · Shooting: 8.0% · Avg distance: 33.9 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
MTL
|
Metric |
CGY
|
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Points | 8 |
| 0.636 | Points % | 0.400 |
| 36 | Goals for | 23 |
| 36 | Goals against | 39 |
| 0 | Goal differential | -16 |
| W2 | Current streak | W3 |
Road versus home
|
MTL road
|
Metric |
CGY home
|
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Games | 6 |
| 3 | Wins | 3 |
| 7 | Points | 6 |
| 3 | Goal differential | -6 |
Last 10 games
|
MTL
|
Metric |
CGY
|
|---|---|---|
| 5-3-2 | Record | 4-6-0 |
| 12 | Points | 8 |
| 33 | Goals for | 23 |
| 34 | Goals against | 39 |
| -1 | Goal differential | -16 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
MTL
6 wins
10
games reviewed
CGY
4 wins
Total goals24 – 21
Goal differential
+3
/
-3
Goals per game2.4 / 2.1
Shots per game30.6 / 32.3
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2026 |
Calgary Flames
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
1 - 4 | 29 - 35 | View |
| Oct 22, 2025 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Calgary Flames
|
2 - 1 | 28 - 37 | View |
| Mar 8, 2025 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Calgary Flames
|
0 - 1 | 26 - 24 | View |
| Nov 5, 2024 |
Calgary Flames
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
3 - 2 | 35 - 24 | View |
| Mar 16, 2024 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Calgary Flames
|
2 - 5 | 38 - 28 | View |
| Nov 14, 2023 |
Calgary Flames
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
2 - 1 | 29 - 35 | View |
| Dec 12, 2022 |
Calgary Flames
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
1 - 2 | 35 - 38 | View |
| Dec 1, 2022 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Calgary Flames
|
2 - 1 | 19 - 46 | View |
| Mar 3, 2022 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Calgary Flames
|
5 - 4 | 35 - 34 | View |
| Nov 11, 2021 |
Calgary Flames
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
2 - 4 | 26 - 28 | View |