Forward trio
104:03 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 125 / 81
- Fenwick for / against
- 92 / 55
- Corsi share
- 60.7%
- Fenwick share
- 62.6%
- xG for / against
- 6.48 / 3.72
Montréal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 15, 2026
NHL matchup
Montréal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 15, 2026.
January 15, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 15. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Montréal Canadiens
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Defense pair
130:12 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 137 / 109
- Fenwick for / against
- 96 / 73
- Corsi share
- 55.7%
- Fenwick share
- 56.8%
- xG for / against
- 7.43 / 5.23
Buffalo Sabres
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
94:17 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 95 / 93
- Fenwick for / against
- 64 / 68
- Corsi share
- 50.5%
- Fenwick share
- 48.5%
- xG for / against
- 4.44 / 3.87
Defense pair
119:23 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 95 / 136
- Fenwick for / against
- 72 / 97
- Corsi share
- 41.1%
- Fenwick share
- 42.6%
- xG for / against
- 4.46 / 6.21
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Sam Montembeault
Montréal Canadiens · Last start: Jan 13
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 139
- Save %
- 90.6
- Goals allowed
- 13
- Close-range shots %
- 38.8
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
Buffalo Sabres · Last start: Jan 14
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 158
- Save %
- 91.8
- Goals allowed
- 13
- Close-range shots %
- 32.9
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 15, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Montréal Canadiens
- xG for / game
- 3.71
- xG against / game
- 3.40
- xG differential / game
- 0.31
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Buffalo Sabres
- xG for / game
- 3.04
- xG against / game
- 2.93
- xG differential / game
- 0.11
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 15, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Montréal Canadiens
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 61.2
- Corsi share (%)
- 51.9
- Fenwick share (%)
- 54.1
- Faceoff win %
- 50.6
- Penalties / game
- 3.9
Shots / game: 29.0 · Shooting: 12.4% · Avg distance: 32.9 ft
Buffalo Sabres
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 55.2
- Corsi share (%)
- 47.3
- Fenwick share (%)
- 48.6
- Faceoff win %
- 48.9
- Penalties / game
- 2.8
Shots / game: 26.8 · Shooting: 14.6% · Avg distance: 34.0 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
MTL
|
Metric |
BUF
|
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Points | 11 |
| 0.636 | Points % | 0.500 |
| 36 | Goals for | 31 |
| 36 | Goals against | 41 |
| 0 | Goal differential | -10 |
| W2 | Current streak | OT1 |
Road versus home
|
MTL road
|
Metric |
BUF home
|
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Games | 6 |
| 3 | Wins | 3 |
| 7 | Points | 6 |
| 3 | Goal differential | -5 |
Last 10 games
|
MTL
|
Metric |
BUF
|
|---|---|---|
| 5-3-2 | Record | 4-3-3 |
| 12 | Points | 11 |
| 33 | Goals for | 28 |
| 34 | Goals against | 35 |
| -1 | Goal differential | -7 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
MTL
8 wins
10
games reviewed
BUF
2 wins
Total goals38 – 28
Goal differential
+10
/
-10
Goals per game3.8 / 2.8
Shots per game29.3 / 31.1
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2025 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
2 - 4 | 32 - 31 | View |
| Mar 3, 2025 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
3 - 4 | 36 - 20 | View |
| Mar 1, 2025 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
4 - 2 | 29 - 25 | View |
| Dec 17, 2024 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
1 - 6 | 21 - 27 | View |
| Nov 11, 2024 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
7 - 5 | 23 - 18 | View |
| Feb 21, 2024 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
3 - 2 | 23 - 31 | View |
| Jan 4, 2024 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
6 - 1 | 38 - 33 | View |
| Dec 9, 2023 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
3 - 2 | 31 - 48 | View |
| Oct 23, 2023 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
3 - 1 | 27 - 37 | View |
| Mar 27, 2023 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
4 - 3 | 41 - 33 | View |