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Minnesota Wild vs Calgary Flames prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 22, 2026

NHL matchup

Minnesota Wild at Calgary Flames

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 22, 2026.

October 22, 2026 · 8:00 PM CST
Away

Minnesota Wild

9-3-2

1
Final
Home

Calgary Flames

5-6-0

2 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Calgary Flames at 50.1% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Minnesota Wild logo
Away team

Minnesota Wild

49.9%
Fair American +100
Fair decimal 2.0
Best market -195 · BetUS
Market implied 66.1%
Edge -16.2%
Expected value -24.5%
Calculate value
Calgary Flames logo
Home team

Calgary Flames

50.1%
Fair American -100
Fair decimal 2.0
Best market +175 · BetRivers
Market implied 36.4%
Edge +13.7%
Expected value +37.8%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 22, 2026.

Calgary Flames

All Model Picks

Bets
2
Record
0-2
Net units
-2.00
ROI
-100.0%

Value Picks

Bets
8
Record
2-6
Net units
-2.63
ROI
-32.9%

Market Favourite

Bets
1
Record
0-1
Net units
-1.00
ROI
-100.0%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 22. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Minnesota Wild

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

99:30 together · 10 games

xG share73.4%
Corsi for / against
133 / 60
Fenwick for / against
100 / 44
Corsi share
68.9%
Fenwick share
69.4%
xG for / against
8.04 / 2.91
Defense pair

93:02 together · 6 games

xG share61.6%
Corsi for / against
108 / 79
Fenwick for / against
81 / 60
Corsi share
57.8%
Fenwick share
57.4%
xG for / against
5.06 / 3.16
All observed combinations

Calgary Flames

8 / 8 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

90:12 together · 7 games

xG share45.6%
Corsi for / against
92 / 110
Fenwick for / against
70 / 80
Corsi share
45.5%
Fenwick share
46.7%
xG for / against
4.02 / 4.79
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Minnesota Wild

Jesper Wallstedt 76.6%
Other eligible goalies

Why Jesper Wallstedt?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+1.109
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.375
Goalie win pct before
+0.360
Started last game
-0.264
Consecutive starts
-0.233
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 22, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Calgary Flames

Dustin Wolf 52.1%
Other eligible goalies

Why Dustin Wolf?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.572
Rolling 5 game avg save pct
-0.451
Prev save pct
-0.449
Team win pct before
+0.418
Days since last start
+0.298
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 22, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Jesper Wallstedt

Minnesota Wild · Last start: Oct 20

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
126
Save %
90.5
Goals allowed
12
Close-range shots %
34.1

Devin Cooley

Calgary Flames · Last start: Oct 18

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
91
Save %
86.8
Goals allowed
12
Close-range shots %
22.0
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 22, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Minnesota Wild

xG for / game
3.34
xG against / game
3.04
xG differential / game
0.30

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Calgary Flames

xG for / game
2.78
xG against / game
3.41
xG differential / game
-0.63

8 / 8 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 22, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Minnesota Wild

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
60.2
Corsi share (%)
52.0
Fenwick share (%)
53.4
Faceoff win %
52.1
Penalties / game
3.8

Shots / game: 29.8 · Shooting: 10.4% · Avg distance: 33.4 ft

Calgary Flames

8 / 8 games covered

Attempts / game
66.9
Corsi share (%)
51.7
Fenwick share (%)
50.0
Faceoff win %
50.6
Penalties / game
4.75

Shots / game: 30.0 · Shooting: 7.1% · Avg distance: 33.4 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Minnesota Wild MIN
Metric
Calgary Flames CGY
20Points10
0.714Points %0.455
44Goals for28
31Goals against41
13Goal differential-13
W3Current streakW4
Road versus home
Minnesota Wild MIN road
Metric
Calgary Flames CGY home
10Games7
5Wins4
12Points8
6Goal differential-3
Last 10 games
Minnesota Wild MIN
Metric
Calgary Flames CGY
7-2-1Record5-5-0
15Points10
33Goals for27
23Goals against35
10Goal differential-8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Minnesota Wild MIN 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Calgary Flames CGY 6 wins
Total goals25 – 26
Goal differential -1 / +1
Goals per game2.5 / 2.6
Shots per game26.6 / 31.5
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Jan 29, 2026
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild
1 - 4 30 - 24 View
Dec 4, 2025
Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
1 - 4 27 - 31 View
Nov 9, 2025
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild
0 - 2 36 - 19 View
Apr 11, 2025
Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
2 - 4 18 - 32 View
Jan 25, 2025
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild
5 - 4 29 - 25 View
Nov 23, 2024
Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
3 - 4 23 - 31 View
Jan 2, 2024
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild
3 - 1 33 - 29 View
Dec 14, 2023
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild
2 - 3 37 - 32 View
Dec 5, 2023
Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
5 - 2 29 - 30 View
Mar 7, 2023
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild
1 - 0 26 - 40 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings MIN CGY