Away team
Florida Panthers
39.0%
Fair American
+156
Fair decimal
2.56
Florida Panthers vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 23, 2027
NHL matchup
Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 23, 2027.
March 23, 2027
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Tampa Bay Lightning at 61.0%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Tampa Bay Lightning
61.0%
Fair American
-156
Fair decimal
1.64
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 23, 2027.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 4
- Record
- 2-2
- Net units
- -1.10
- ROI
- -27.6%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 1
- Record
- 0-1
- Net units
- -1.00
- ROI
- -100.0%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 4-4
- Net units
- -1.71
- ROI
- -21.4%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 5-1
- Net units
- 1.45
- ROI
- 24.2%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Net units
- 0.00
- ROI
- —
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 6-2
- Net units
- 1.06
- ROI
- 13.3%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 23. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Florida Panthers
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
72:54 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 69 / 52
- Fenwick for / against
- 43 / 38
- Corsi share
- 57.0%
- Fenwick share
- 53.1%
- xG for / against
- 2.59 / 1.54
Defense pair
126:22 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 131 / 84
- Fenwick for / against
- 97 / 66
- Corsi share
- 60.9%
- Fenwick share
- 59.5%
- xG for / against
- 5.35 / 3.48
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
95:17 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 85 / 83
- Fenwick for / against
- 64 / 59
- Corsi share
- 50.6%
- Fenwick share
- 52.0%
- xG for / against
- 3.69 / 3.31
Defense pair
123:37 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 154 / 103
- Fenwick for / against
- 114 / 80
- Corsi share
- 59.9%
- Fenwick share
- 58.8%
- xG for / against
- 7.27 / 4.55
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Florida Panthers
Expected starter unavailable.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Akira Schmid
Florida Panthers · Last start: Oct 25
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 117
- Save %
- 87.2
- Goals allowed
- 15
- Close-range shots %
- 29.9
Dennis Hildeby
Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 24
3 / 3 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 78
- Save %
- 88.5
- Goals allowed
- 9
- Close-range shots %
- 35.9
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 23, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Florida Panthers
- xG for / game
- 3.41
- xG against / game
- 2.74
- xG differential / game
- 0.67
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Tampa Bay Lightning
- xG for / game
- 3.56
- xG against / game
- 2.79
- xG differential / game
- 0.77
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 23, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Florida Panthers
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 62.8
- Corsi share (%)
- 56.1
- Fenwick share (%)
- 54.5
- Faceoff win %
- 45.5
- Penalties / game
- 5.7
Shots / game: 29.7 · Shooting: 10.1% · Avg distance: 32.7 ft
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 63.5
- Corsi share (%)
- 55.1
- Fenwick share (%)
- 55.6
- Faceoff win %
- 49.5
- Penalties / game
- 3.7
Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
FLA
|
Metric |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Points | 15 |
| 0.583 | Points % | 0.682 |
| 34 | Goals for | 38 |
| 36 | Goals against | 34 |
| -2 | Goal differential | 4 |
| W1 | Current streak | OT1 |
Road versus home
|
FLA road
|
Metric |
TBL home
|
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Games | 5 |
| 4 | Wins | 5 |
| 10 | Points | 10 |
| -5 | Goal differential | 9 |
Last 10 games
|
FLA
|
Metric |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 5-4-1 | Record | 7-2-1 |
| 11 | Points | 15 |
| 30 | Goals for | 37 |
| 32 | Goals against | 29 |
| -2 | Goal differential | 8 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
FLA
4 wins
10
games reviewed
TBL
6 wins
Total goals28 – 34
Goal differential
-6
/
+6
Goals per game2.8 / 3.4
Shots per game30.2 / 25.7
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 |
Florida Panthers
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 6 | 34 - 28 | View |
| Dec 27, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Florida Panthers
|
4 - 2 | 25 - 26 | View |
| Dec 15, 2025 |
Florida Panthers
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
5 - 2 | 24 - 28 | View |
| Nov 15, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Florida Panthers
|
3 - 1 | 20 - 23 | View |
| Apr 15, 2025 |
Florida Panthers
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 5 | 24 - 31 | View |
| Mar 3, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Florida Panthers
|
1 - 2 | 29 - 29 | View |
| Dec 23, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Florida Panthers
|
4 - 0 | 29 - 36 | View |
| Dec 22, 2024 |
Florida Panthers
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 2 | 26 - 21 | View |
| Mar 16, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Florida Panthers
|
5 - 3 | 16 - 50 | View |
| Feb 17, 2024 |
Florida Panthers
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
9 - 2 | 30 - 30 | View |