Forward trio
45:31 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 31 / 32
- Fenwick for / against
- 22 / 23
- Corsi share
- 49.2%
- Fenwick share
- 48.9%
- xG for / against
- 1.19 / 1.19
Florida Panthers vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for February 5, 2026
NHL matchup
Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for February 5, 2026.
February 5, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 5. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Florida Panthers
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Defense pair
156:05 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 148 / 123
- Fenwick for / against
- 105 / 91
- Corsi share
- 54.6%
- Fenwick share
- 53.6%
- xG for / against
- 6.60 / 5.45
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
119:55 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 110 / 94
- Fenwick for / against
- 82 / 69
- Corsi share
- 53.9%
- Fenwick share
- 54.3%
- xG for / against
- 4.26 / 4.00
Defense pair
155:24 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 177 / 113
- Fenwick for / against
- 136 / 84
- Corsi share
- 61.0%
- Fenwick share
- 61.8%
- xG for / against
- 7.54 / 6.57
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Sergei Bobrovsky
Florida Panthers · Last start: Feb 4
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 110
- Save %
- 84.5
- Goals allowed
- 17
- Close-range shots %
- 44.5
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Feb 3
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 131
- Save %
- 92.4
- Goals allowed
- 10
- Close-range shots %
- 30.5
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 5, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Florida Panthers
- xG for / game
- 3.12
- xG against / game
- 2.80
- xG differential / game
- 0.32
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Tampa Bay Lightning
- xG for / game
- 3.54
- xG against / game
- 2.81
- xG differential / game
- 0.73
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 5, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Florida Panthers
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 60.4
- Corsi share (%)
- 55.6
- Fenwick share (%)
- 55.2
- Faceoff win %
- 48.2
- Penalties / game
- 5.7
Shots / game: 29.2 · Shooting: 10.6% · Avg distance: 31.7 ft
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 65.0
- Corsi share (%)
- 57.2
- Fenwick share (%)
- 58.2
- Faceoff win %
- 50.9
- Penalties / game
- 3.9
Shots / game: 32.1 · Shooting: 10.0% · Avg distance: 33.3 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
FLA
|
Metric |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Points | 15 |
| 0.615 | Points % | 0.682 |
| 39 | Goals for | 38 |
| 37 | Goals against | 34 |
| 2 | Goal differential | 4 |
| W2 | Current streak | OT1 |
Road versus home
|
FLA road
|
Metric |
TBL home
|
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Games | 5 |
| 5 | Wins | 5 |
| 12 | Points | 10 |
| -1 | Goal differential | 9 |
Last 10 games
|
FLA
|
Metric |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 6-4-0 | Record | 7-2-1 |
| 12 | Points | 15 |
| 33 | Goals for | 37 |
| 30 | Goals against | 29 |
| 3 | Goal differential | 8 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
FLA
5 wins
10
games reviewed
TBL
5 wins
Total goals30 – 30
Goal differential
0
/
0
Goals per game3.0 / 3.0
Shots per game29.9 / 25.8
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Florida Panthers
|
4 - 2 | 25 - 26 | View |
| Dec 15, 2025 |
Florida Panthers
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
5 - 2 | 24 - 28 | View |
| Nov 15, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Florida Panthers
|
3 - 1 | 20 - 23 | View |
| Apr 15, 2025 |
Florida Panthers
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 5 | 24 - 31 | View |
| Mar 3, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Florida Panthers
|
1 - 2 | 29 - 29 | View |
| Dec 23, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Florida Panthers
|
4 - 0 | 29 - 36 | View |
| Dec 22, 2024 |
Florida Panthers
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 2 | 26 - 21 | View |
| Mar 16, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Florida Panthers
|
5 - 3 | 16 - 50 | View |
| Feb 17, 2024 |
Florida Panthers
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
9 - 2 | 30 - 30 | View |
| Dec 27, 2023 |
Florida Panthers
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
3 - 2 | 31 - 29 | View |