Away team
Detroit Red Wings
40.9%
Fair American
+144
Fair decimal
2.44
Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 3, 2026
NHL matchup
Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 3, 2026.
November 3, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Tampa Bay Lightning at 59.1%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Tampa Bay Lightning
59.1%
Fair American
-144
Fair decimal
1.69
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 3, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 2-4
- Net units
- -2.53
- ROI
- -42.2%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 3-4
- Net units
- -0.98
- ROI
- -14.1%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 9
- Record
- 4-5
- Net units
- -1.97
- ROI
- -21.8%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 5-1
- Net units
- 1.45
- ROI
- 24.2%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Net units
- 0.00
- ROI
- —
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 6-2
- Net units
- 1.06
- ROI
- 13.3%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 3. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Detroit Red Wings
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
74:28 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 89 / 63
- Fenwick for / against
- 65 / 46
- Corsi share
- 58.6%
- Fenwick share
- 58.6%
- xG for / against
- 4.23 / 3.44
Defense pair
112:48 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 115 / 99
- Fenwick for / against
- 80 / 60
- Corsi share
- 53.7%
- Fenwick share
- 57.1%
- xG for / against
- 3.84 / 3.62
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
95:17 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 85 / 83
- Fenwick for / against
- 64 / 59
- Corsi share
- 50.6%
- Fenwick share
- 52.0%
- xG for / against
- 3.69 / 3.31
Defense pair
123:37 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 154 / 103
- Fenwick for / against
- 114 / 80
- Corsi share
- 59.9%
- Fenwick share
- 58.8%
- xG for / against
- 7.27 / 4.55
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Detroit Red Wings
Expected starter unavailable.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Michal Postava
Detroit Red Wings · Last start: Oct 26
2 / 2 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 35
- Save %
- 88.6
- Goals allowed
- 4
- Close-range shots %
- 28.6
Dennis Hildeby
Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 24
3 / 3 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 78
- Save %
- 88.5
- Goals allowed
- 9
- Close-range shots %
- 35.9
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 3, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Detroit Red Wings
- xG for / game
- 3.35
- xG against / game
- 3.16
- xG differential / game
- 0.19
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Tampa Bay Lightning
- xG for / game
- 3.56
- xG against / game
- 2.79
- xG differential / game
- 0.77
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 3, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Detroit Red Wings
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 62.5
- Corsi share (%)
- 52.2
- Fenwick share (%)
- 52.8
- Faceoff win %
- 49.0
- Penalties / game
- 4.2
Shots / game: 29.9 · Shooting: 9.7% · Avg distance: 32.7 ft
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 63.5
- Corsi share (%)
- 55.1
- Fenwick share (%)
- 55.6
- Faceoff win %
- 49.5
- Penalties / game
- 3.7
Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
DET
|
Metric |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Points | 15 |
| 0.542 | Points % | 0.682 |
| 33 | Goals for | 38 |
| 37 | Goals against | 34 |
| -4 | Goal differential | 4 |
| W1 | Current streak | OT1 |
Road versus home
|
DET road
|
Metric |
TBL home
|
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Games | 5 |
| 2 | Wins | 5 |
| 6 | Points | 10 |
| -1 | Goal differential | 9 |
Last 10 games
|
DET
|
Metric |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 5-2-3 | Record | 7-2-1 |
| 13 | Points | 15 |
| 31 | Goals for | 37 |
| 32 | Goals against | 29 |
| -1 | Goal differential | 8 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
DET
5 wins
10
games reviewed
TBL
5 wins
Total goals25 – 32
Goal differential
-7
/
+7
Goals per game2.5 / 3.2
Shots per game32.3 / 26.3
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2026 |
Detroit Red Wings
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
3 - 4 | 30 - 22 | View |
| Mar 12, 2026 |
Detroit Red Wings
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 4 | 25 - 28 | View |
| Nov 28, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Detroit Red Wings
|
6 - 3 | 28 - 36 | View |
| Oct 17, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Detroit Red Wings
|
1 - 2 | 32 - 31 | View |
| Apr 11, 2025 |
Detroit Red Wings
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 3 | 26 - 21 | View |
| Feb 8, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Detroit Red Wings
|
6 - 3 | 18 - 37 | View |
| Jan 25, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Detroit Red Wings
|
0 - 2 | 28 - 32 | View |
| Jan 18, 2025 |
Detroit Red Wings
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 5 | 39 - 22 | View |
| Apr 1, 2024 |
Detroit Red Wings
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 2 | 32 - 36 | View |
| Jan 21, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Detroit Red Wings
|
1 - 2 | 28 - 35 | View |