Forward trio
78:43 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 80 / 76
- Fenwick for / against
- 58 / 54
- Corsi share
- 51.3%
- Fenwick share
- 51.8%
- xG for / against
- 4.00 / 3.56
Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 12, 2026
NHL matchup
Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 12, 2026.
March 12, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 12. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Detroit Red Wings
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Defense pair
120:15 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 107 / 117
- Fenwick for / against
- 81 / 81
- Corsi share
- 47.8%
- Fenwick share
- 50.0%
- xG for / against
- 6.55 / 5.97
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
83:32 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 68 / 65
- Fenwick for / against
- 50 / 51
- Corsi share
- 51.1%
- Fenwick share
- 49.5%
- xG for / against
- 3.03 / 2.84
Defense pair
111:41 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 109 / 87
- Fenwick for / against
- 83 / 72
- Corsi share
- 55.6%
- Fenwick share
- 53.5%
- xG for / against
- 4.83 / 4.64
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
John Gibson
Detroit Red Wings · Last start: Mar 10
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 109
- Save %
- 92.7
- Goals allowed
- 8
- Close-range shots %
- 28.4
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Mar 10
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 124
- Save %
- 85.5
- Goals allowed
- 18
- Close-range shots %
- 39.5
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 12, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Detroit Red Wings
- xG for / game
- 2.99
- xG against / game
- 3.13
- xG differential / game
- -0.14
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Tampa Bay Lightning
- xG for / game
- 3.30
- xG against / game
- 3.37
- xG differential / game
- -0.08
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 12, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Detroit Red Wings
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 56.8
- Corsi share (%)
- 48.4
- Fenwick share (%)
- 49.9
- Faceoff win %
- 50.4
- Penalties / game
- 3.2
Shots / game: 27.6 · Shooting: 7.6% · Avg distance: 33.4 ft
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 57.7
- Corsi share (%)
- 50.5
- Fenwick share (%)
- 49.8
- Faceoff win %
- 48.9
- Penalties / game
- 6.9
Shots / game: 29.7 · Shooting: 12.1% · Avg distance: 32.1 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
DET
|
Metric |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Points | 15 |
| 0.542 | Points % | 0.682 |
| 33 | Goals for | 38 |
| 37 | Goals against | 34 |
| -4 | Goal differential | 4 |
| W1 | Current streak | OT1 |
Road versus home
|
DET road
|
Metric |
TBL home
|
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Games | 5 |
| 2 | Wins | 5 |
| 6 | Points | 10 |
| -1 | Goal differential | 9 |
Last 10 games
|
DET
|
Metric |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 5-2-3 | Record | 7-2-1 |
| 13 | Points | 15 |
| 31 | Goals for | 37 |
| 32 | Goals against | 29 |
| -1 | Goal differential | 8 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
DET
6 wins
10
games reviewed
TBL
4 wins
Total goals27 – 33
Goal differential
-6
/
+6
Goals per game2.7 / 3.3
Shots per game34.2 / 27.0
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Detroit Red Wings
|
6 - 3 | 28 - 36 | View |
| Oct 17, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Detroit Red Wings
|
1 - 2 | 32 - 31 | View |
| Apr 11, 2025 |
Detroit Red Wings
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 3 | 26 - 21 | View |
| Feb 8, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Detroit Red Wings
|
6 - 3 | 18 - 37 | View |
| Jan 25, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Detroit Red Wings
|
0 - 2 | 28 - 32 | View |
| Jan 18, 2025 |
Detroit Red Wings
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 5 | 39 - 22 | View |
| Apr 1, 2024 |
Detroit Red Wings
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 2 | 32 - 36 | View |
| Jan 21, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Detroit Red Wings
|
1 - 2 | 28 - 35 | View |
| Oct 14, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Detroit Red Wings
|
4 - 6 | 25 - 42 | View |
| Apr 13, 2023 |
Detroit Red Wings
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
0 - 5 | 32 - 32 | View |