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Detroit Red Wings vs Montréal Canadiens prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 10, 2026

NHL matchup

Detroit Red Wings at Montréal Canadiens

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 10, 2026.

October 10, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Detroit Red Wings

4-4-3

0
Final
Home

Montréal Canadiens

6-3-2

1 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Montréal Canadiens at 55.7% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Detroit Red Wings logo
Away team

Detroit Red Wings

44.3%
Fair American +126
Fair decimal 2.26
Best market +180 · BetRivers
Market implied 35.7%
Edge +8.6%
Expected value +24.0%
Calculate value
Montréal Canadiens logo
Home team

Montréal Canadiens

55.7%
Fair American -126
Fair decimal 1.8
Best market -183 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 64.7%
Edge -9.0%
Expected value -13.9%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 10, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 10. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Detroit Red Wings

4 / 4 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

46:32 together · 4 games

xG share63.3%
Corsi for / against
54 / 33
Fenwick for / against
36 / 19
Corsi share
62.1%
Fenwick share
65.5%
xG for / against
1.99 / 1.15
All observed combinations

Montréal Canadiens

4 / 4 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

26:23 together · 3 games

xG share39.9%
Corsi for / against
28 / 22
Fenwick for / against
19 / 20
Corsi share
56.0%
Fenwick share
48.7%
xG for / against
0.80 / 1.21
Defense pair

35:55 together · 4 games

xG share37.5%
Corsi for / against
22 / 37
Fenwick for / against
13 / 31
Corsi share
37.3%
Fenwick share
29.5%
xG for / against
1.15 / 1.91
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

John Gibson

Detroit Red Wings · Last start: Oct 9

4 / 4 appearances covered

Shots faced
87
Save %
86.2
Goals allowed
12
Close-range shots %
31.0

Jacob Fowler

Montréal Canadiens · Last start: Oct 8

1 / 1 appearances covered

Shots faced
18
Save %
83.3
Goals allowed
3
Close-range shots %
38.9
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 10, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Detroit Red Wings

xG for / game
3.34
xG against / game
2.86
xG differential / game
0.48

4 / 4 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Montréal Canadiens

xG for / game
2.90
xG against / game
2.88
xG differential / game
0.02

4 / 4 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 10, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Detroit Red Wings

4 / 4 games covered

Attempts / game
67.0
Corsi share (%)
57.1
Fenwick share (%)
56.4
Faceoff win %
52.1
Penalties / game
5.75

Shots / game: 33.5 · Shooting: 7.5% · Avg distance: 34.3 ft

Montréal Canadiens

4 / 4 games covered

Attempts / game
56.8
Corsi share (%)
51.4
Fenwick share (%)
50.3
Faceoff win %
53.2
Penalties / game
5.75

Shots / game: 25.5 · Shooting: 13.7% · Avg distance: 33.5 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Detroit Red Wings DET
Metric
Montréal Canadiens MTL
11Points14
0.500Points %0.636
29Goals for36
34Goals against36
-5Goal differential0
L1Current streakW2
Road versus home
Detroit Red Wings DET road
Metric
Montréal Canadiens MTL home
4Games6
1Wins3
4Points7
-2Goal differential-3
Last 10 games
Detroit Red Wings DET
Metric
Montréal Canadiens MTL
4-3-3Record5-3-2
11Points12
29Goals for33
32Goals against34
-3Goal differential-1
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Detroit Red Wings DET 6 wins
10 games reviewed
Montréal Canadiens MTL 4 wins
Total goals32 – 33
Goal differential -1 / +1
Goals per game3.2 / 3.3
Shots per game32.1 / 26.8
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 19, 2026
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
1 - 3 33 - 28 View
Jan 10, 2026
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
4 - 0 24 - 27 View
Oct 9, 2025
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
5 - 1 17 - 31 View
Apr 8, 2025
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
1 - 4 36 - 21 View
Jan 23, 2025
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
2 - 4 29 - 45 View
Dec 21, 2024
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
1 - 5 21 - 24 View
Dec 20, 2024
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
4 - 3 33 - 28 View
Apr 16, 2024
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
5 - 4 40 - 33 View
Apr 15, 2024
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
4 - 5 21 - 35 View
Dec 2, 2023
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
5 - 4 33 - 30 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings DET MTL