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Detroit Red Wings vs Calgary Flames prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 24, 2026

NHL matchup

Detroit Red Wings at Calgary Flames

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 24, 2026.

October 24, 2026 · 9:00 PM CST
Away

Detroit Red Wings

5-4-3

1 Model pick
Final
Home

Calgary Flames

5-6-0

4
Model V2 pick: Detroit Red Wings at 50.1% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Detroit Red Wings logo
Away team

Detroit Red Wings

50.1%
Fair American -100
Fair decimal 2.0
Best market -145 · BetMGM
Market implied 59.2%
Edge -9.1%
Expected value -15.3%
Calculate value
Calgary Flames logo
Home team

Calgary Flames

49.9%
Fair American +100
Fair decimal 2.0
Best market +128 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 43.9%
Edge +6.0%
Expected value +13.8%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 24, 2026.

Calgary Flames

All Model Picks

Bets
3
Record
1-2
Net units
-0.25
ROI
-8.3%

Value Picks

Bets
9
Record
3-6
Net units
-0.88
ROI
-9.8%

Market Favourite

Bets
1
Record
0-1
Net units
-1.00
ROI
-100.0%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 24. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Detroit Red Wings

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

84:15 together · 10 games

xG share54.9%
Corsi for / against
90 / 75
Fenwick for / against
61 / 39
Corsi share
54.5%
Fenwick share
61.0%
xG for / against
3.15 / 2.59
All observed combinations

Calgary Flames

9 / 9 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

43:32 together · 6 games

xG share53.7%
Corsi for / against
46 / 43
Fenwick for / against
31 / 31
Corsi share
51.7%
Fenwick share
50.0%
xG for / against
2.01 / 1.74
Defense pair

94:02 together · 9 games

xG share55.8%
Corsi for / against
118 / 84
Fenwick for / against
86 / 65
Corsi share
58.4%
Fenwick share
57.0%
xG for / against
5.39 / 4.27
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Detroit Red Wings

John Gibson 53.0%
Other eligible goalies

Why John Gibson?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.635
Prev save pct
-0.632
Won previous appearance
+0.336
Team win pct before
+0.306
Started last game
-0.279
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 24, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Calgary Flames

Devin Cooley 51.7%
Other eligible goalies

Why Devin Cooley?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Team win pct before
+0.398
Started last game
-0.376
Won previous appearance
+0.362
Prev save pct
+0.360
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
-0.259
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 24, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

John Gibson

Detroit Red Wings · Last start: Oct 22

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
116
Save %
85.3
Goals allowed
17
Close-range shots %
33.6

Devin Cooley

Calgary Flames · Last start: Oct 22

4 / 4 appearances covered

Shots faced
130
Save %
90.0
Goals allowed
13
Close-range shots %
24.6
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 24, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Detroit Red Wings

xG for / game
3.33
xG against / game
3.21
xG differential / game
0.12

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Calgary Flames

xG for / game
2.71
xG against / game
3.42
xG differential / game
-0.71

9 / 9 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 24, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Detroit Red Wings

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
63.5
Corsi share (%)
52.6
Fenwick share (%)
53.4
Faceoff win %
49.3
Penalties / game
4.6

Shots / game: 29.9 · Shooting: 9.0% · Avg distance: 33.0 ft

Calgary Flames

9 / 9 games covered

Attempts / game
63.8
Corsi share (%)
50.2
Fenwick share (%)
48.3
Faceoff win %
49.9
Penalties / game
4.67

Shots / game: 29.1 · Shooting: 7.3% · Avg distance: 33.5 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Detroit Red Wings DET
Metric
Calgary Flames CGY
13Points10
0.542Points %0.455
33Goals for28
37Goals against41
-4Goal differential-13
W1Current streakW4
Road versus home
Detroit Red Wings DET road
Metric
Calgary Flames CGY home
5Games7
2Wins4
6Points8
-1Goal differential-3
Last 10 games
Detroit Red Wings DET
Metric
Calgary Flames CGY
5-2-3Record5-5-0
13Points10
31Goals for27
32Goals against35
-1Goal differential-8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Detroit Red Wings DET 8 wins
10 games reviewed
Calgary Flames CGY 2 wins
Total goals32 – 18
Goal differential +14 / -14
Goals per game3.2 / 1.8
Shots per game24.8 / 33.5
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 16, 2026
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
2 - 5 27 - 25 View
Dec 10, 2025
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
4 - 3 27 - 37 View
Feb 1, 2025
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
3 - 1 25 - 34 View
Nov 27, 2024
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
1 - 2 25 - 27 View
Feb 17, 2024
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
5 - 0 21 - 38 View
Oct 22, 2023
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
2 - 6 31 - 30 View
Feb 16, 2023
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
5 - 2 24 - 35 View
Feb 9, 2023
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
1 - 2 36 - 17 View
Mar 12, 2022
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
0 - 3 19 - 43 View
Oct 21, 2021
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
3 - 0 29 - 33 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings DET CGY