Away team
Dallas Stars
35.3%
Fair American
+183
Fair decimal
2.83
Dallas Stars vs Vegas Golden Knights prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 17, 2026
NHL matchup
Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 17, 2026.
November 17, 2026
· 9:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Vegas Golden Knights at 64.7%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Vegas Golden Knights
64.7%
Fair American
-183
Fair decimal
1.55
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 17, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 2-1
- Net units
- 0.09
- ROI
- 3.1%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Net units
- 0.00
- ROI
- —
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 9
- Record
- 6-3
- Net units
- 0.55
- ROI
- 6.1%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 11
- Record
- 7-4
- Net units
- -0.11
- ROI
- -1.0%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 2
- Record
- 1-1
- Net units
- -0.39
- ROI
- -19.3%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 12
- Record
- 8-4
- Net units
- 0.25
- ROI
- 2.1%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 17. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Dallas Stars
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
52:30 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 52 / 43
- Fenwick for / against
- 36 / 23
- Corsi share
- 54.7%
- Fenwick share
- 61.0%
- xG for / against
- 2.76 / 0.94
Defense pair
96:24 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 99 / 73
- Fenwick for / against
- 66 / 48
- Corsi share
- 57.6%
- Fenwick share
- 57.9%
- xG for / against
- 3.83 / 2.68
Vegas Golden Knights
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
107:16 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 113 / 85
- Fenwick for / against
- 83 / 58
- Corsi share
- 57.1%
- Fenwick share
- 58.9%
- xG for / against
- 5.90 / 3.25
Defense pair
154:42 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 179 / 131
- Fenwick for / against
- 132 / 92
- Corsi share
- 57.7%
- Fenwick share
- 58.9%
- xG for / against
- 9.12 / 4.99
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Dallas Stars
Expected starter unavailable.
Vegas Golden Knights
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Jake Oettinger
Dallas Stars · Last start: Oct 25
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 102
- Save %
- 90.2
- Goals allowed
- 10
- Close-range shots %
- 34.3
Carter Hart
Vegas Golden Knights · Last start: Oct 24
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 125
- Save %
- 88.8
- Goals allowed
- 14
- Close-range shots %
- 32.0
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 17, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Dallas Stars
- xG for / game
- 3.33
- xG against / game
- 2.56
- xG differential / game
- 0.77
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Vegas Golden Knights
- xG for / game
- 3.32
- xG against / game
- 2.74
- xG differential / game
- 0.58
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 17, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Dallas Stars
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 58.0
- Corsi share (%)
- 53.6
- Fenwick share (%)
- 54.7
- Faceoff win %
- 55.7
- Penalties / game
- 4.0
Shots / game: 28.0 · Shooting: 11.1% · Avg distance: 31.0 ft
Vegas Golden Knights
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 59.3
- Corsi share (%)
- 51.6
- Fenwick share (%)
- 52.5
- Faceoff win %
- 49.4
- Penalties / game
- 3.6
Shots / game: 29.3 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 33.0 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
DAL
|
Metric |
VGK
|
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Points | 17 |
| 0.682 | Points % | 0.654 |
| 32 | Goals for | 47 |
| 20 | Goals against | 38 |
| 12 | Goal differential | 9 |
| W5 | Current streak | OT1 |
Road versus home
|
DAL road
|
Metric |
VGK home
|
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Games | 7 |
| 3 | Wins | 5 |
| 7 | Points | 10 |
| 7 | Goal differential | 8 |
Last 10 games
|
DAL
|
Metric |
VGK
|
|---|---|---|
| 7-2-1 | Record | 6-3-1 |
| 15 | Points | 13 |
| 32 | Goals for | 36 |
| 16 | Goals against | 30 |
| 16 | Goal differential | 6 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
DAL
5 wins
10
games reviewed
VGK
5 wins
Total goals25 – 29
Goal differential
-4
/
+4
Goals per game2.5 / 2.9
Shots per game25.6 / 26.5
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
Dallas Stars
|
3 - 2 | 33 - 15 | View |
| Mar 10, 2026 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
Dallas Stars
|
1 - 2 | 27 - 16 | View |
| Jan 29, 2026 |
Dallas Stars
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
5 - 4 | 27 - 21 | View |
| Jan 28, 2025 |
Dallas Stars
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
4 - 3 | 28 - 28 | View |
| Jan 24, 2025 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
Dallas Stars
|
3 - 4 | 21 - 27 | View |
| Dec 6, 2024 |
Dallas Stars
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
2 - 3 | 40 - 28 | View |
| Dec 9, 2023 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
Dallas Stars
|
6 - 1 | 27 - 20 | View |
| Nov 22, 2023 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
Dallas Stars
|
2 - 1 | 26 - 32 | View |
| Oct 17, 2023 |
Dallas Stars
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
2 - 3 | 26 - 34 | View |
| Apr 8, 2023 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
Dallas Stars
|
1 - 2 | 20 - 25 | View |