Away team
Dallas Stars
47.5%
Fair American
+111
Fair decimal
2.11
Dallas Stars vs Calgary Flames prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 17, 2027
NHL matchup
Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 17, 2027.
March 17, 2027
· 8:30 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Calgary Flames at 52.5%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Calgary Flames
52.5%
Fair American
-111
Fair decimal
1.9
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 17, 2027.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 2-1
- Net units
- 0.09
- ROI
- 3.1%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Net units
- 0.00
- ROI
- —
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 9
- Record
- 6-3
- Net units
- 0.55
- ROI
- 6.1%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 1-2
- Net units
- -0.25
- ROI
- -8.3%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 10
- Record
- 4-6
- Net units
- 0.40
- ROI
- 4.0%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 1
- Record
- 0-1
- Net units
- -1.00
- ROI
- -100.0%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 17. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Dallas Stars
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
52:30 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 52 / 43
- Fenwick for / against
- 36 / 23
- Corsi share
- 54.7%
- Fenwick share
- 61.0%
- xG for / against
- 2.76 / 0.94
Defense pair
96:24 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 99 / 73
- Fenwick for / against
- 66 / 48
- Corsi share
- 57.6%
- Fenwick share
- 57.9%
- xG for / against
- 3.83 / 2.68
Calgary Flames
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
53:06 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 58 / 49
- Fenwick for / against
- 42 / 35
- Corsi share
- 54.2%
- Fenwick share
- 54.5%
- xG for / against
- 2.28 / 1.88
Defense pair
112:12 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 125 / 98
- Fenwick for / against
- 91 / 73
- Corsi share
- 56.1%
- Fenwick share
- 55.5%
- xG for / against
- 5.70 / 4.83
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Dallas Stars
Expected starter unavailable.
Calgary Flames
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Jake Oettinger
Dallas Stars · Last start: Oct 25
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 103
- Save %
- 90.3
- Goals allowed
- 10
- Close-range shots %
- 34.0
Devin Cooley
Calgary Flames · Last start: Oct 24
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 159
- Save %
- 91.2
- Goals allowed
- 14
- Close-range shots %
- 26.4
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 17, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Dallas Stars
- xG for / game
- 3.33
- xG against / game
- 2.56
- xG differential / game
- 0.77
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Calgary Flames
- xG for / game
- 2.61
- xG against / game
- 3.37
- xG differential / game
- -0.76
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 17, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Dallas Stars
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 58.0
- Corsi share (%)
- 53.6
- Fenwick share (%)
- 54.7
- Faceoff win %
- 55.7
- Penalties / game
- 4.0
Shots / game: 28.0 · Shooting: 11.1% · Avg distance: 31.0 ft
Calgary Flames
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 61.2
- Corsi share (%)
- 49.4
- Fenwick share (%)
- 47.9
- Faceoff win %
- 49.5
- Penalties / game
- 4.6
Shots / game: 28.7 · Shooting: 8.0% · Avg distance: 33.9 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
DAL
|
Metric |
CGY
|
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Points | 8 |
| 0.682 | Points % | 0.400 |
| 32 | Goals for | 23 |
| 20 | Goals against | 39 |
| 12 | Goal differential | -16 |
| W5 | Current streak | W3 |
Road versus home
|
DAL road
|
Metric |
CGY home
|
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Games | 6 |
| 3 | Wins | 3 |
| 7 | Points | 6 |
| 7 | Goal differential | -6 |
Last 10 games
|
DAL
|
Metric |
CGY
|
|---|---|---|
| 7-2-1 | Record | 4-6-0 |
| 15 | Points | 8 |
| 32 | Goals for | 23 |
| 16 | Goals against | 39 |
| 16 | Goal differential | -16 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
DAL
7 wins
10
games reviewed
CGY
3 wins
Total goals43 – 32
Goal differential
+11
/
-11
Goals per game4.3 / 3.2
Shots per game26.4 / 32.9
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2026 |
Calgary Flames
at
Dallas Stars
|
3 - 4 | 20 - 25 | View |
| Mar 3, 2026 |
Dallas Stars
at
Calgary Flames
|
6 - 1 | 35 - 21 | View |
| Nov 22, 2025 |
Dallas Stars
at
Calgary Flames
|
2 - 3 | 30 - 33 | View |
| Mar 27, 2025 |
Dallas Stars
at
Calgary Flames
|
5 - 2 | 19 - 48 | View |
| Mar 6, 2025 |
Calgary Flames
at
Dallas Stars
|
2 - 3 | 28 - 27 | View |
| Dec 8, 2024 |
Calgary Flames
at
Dallas Stars
|
2 - 6 | 31 - 28 | View |
| Nov 30, 2023 |
Dallas Stars
at
Calgary Flames
|
3 - 4 | 16 - 36 | View |
| Nov 24, 2023 |
Calgary Flames
at
Dallas Stars
|
7 - 4 | 27 - 28 | View |
| Nov 1, 2023 |
Dallas Stars
at
Calgary Flames
|
4 - 3 | 30 - 47 | View |
| Mar 18, 2023 |
Dallas Stars
at
Calgary Flames
|
6 - 5 | 26 - 38 | View |