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Columbus Blue Jackets vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 21, 2026

NHL matchup

Columbus Blue Jackets at Toronto Maple Leafs

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 21, 2026.

November 21, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Columbus Blue Jackets

4-5-0

34.0%
at
Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-4-2

66.0% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Toronto Maple Leafs at 66.0%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Columbus Blue Jackets logo
Away team

Columbus Blue Jackets

34.0%
Fair American +194
Fair decimal 2.94
Calculate value
Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Home team

Toronto Maple Leafs

66.0%
Fair American -194
Fair decimal 1.52
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 21, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 21. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Columbus Blue Jackets

9 / 9 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

85:28 together · 9 games

xG share48.2%
Corsi for / against
77 / 70
Fenwick for / against
47 / 51
Corsi share
52.4%
Fenwick share
48.0%
xG for / against
2.50 / 2.69
Defense pair

106:55 together · 7 games

xG share42.9%
Corsi for / against
102 / 107
Fenwick for / against
75 / 85
Corsi share
48.8%
Fenwick share
46.9%
xG for / against
4.91 / 6.53
All observed combinations

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

104:16 together · 10 games

xG share45.0%
Corsi for / against
87 / 118
Fenwick for / against
71 / 87
Corsi share
42.4%
Fenwick share
44.9%
xG for / against
4.07 / 4.98
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Cam Talbot

Columbus Blue Jackets · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
110
Save %
89.1
Goals allowed
12
Close-range shots %
39.1

Anthony Stolarz

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
150
Save %
90.7
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
31.3
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 21, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Columbus Blue Jackets

xG for / game
2.86
xG against / game
3.40
xG differential / game
-0.55

9 / 9 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
3.20
xG against / game
3.44
xG differential / game
-0.24

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 21, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Columbus Blue Jackets

9 / 9 games covered

Attempts / game
55.1
Corsi share (%)
48.5
Fenwick share (%)
48.5
Faceoff win %
54.7
Penalties / game
3.89

Shots / game: 26.8 · Shooting: 8.7% · Avg distance: 32.7 ft

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.0
Corsi share (%)
46.0
Fenwick share (%)
48.2
Faceoff win %
53.1
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 29.0 · Shooting: 15.2% · Avg distance: 32.5 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Columbus Blue Jackets CBJ
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
8Points16
0.444Points %0.615
22Goals for50
30Goals against41
-8Goal differential9
W1Current streakW4
Road versus home
Columbus Blue Jackets CBJ road
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR home
2Games8
0Wins4
0Points9
-3Goal differential-1
Last 10 games
Columbus Blue Jackets CBJ
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
4-5-0Record6-2-2
8Points14
22Goals for44
30Goals against34
-8Goal differential10
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Columbus Blue Jackets CBJ 6 wins
10 games reviewed
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 4 wins
Total goals36 – 35
Goal differential +1 / -1
Goals per game3.6 / 3.5
Shots per game29.5 / 30.6
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Oct 20, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Columbus Blue Jackets Columbus Blue Jackets
6 - 2 22 - 37 View
Nov 26, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Columbus Blue Jackets Columbus Blue Jackets
2 - 1 24 - 36 View
Nov 20, 2025
Columbus Blue Jackets Columbus Blue Jackets at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 2 30 - 29 View
Oct 29, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Columbus Blue Jackets Columbus Blue Jackets
3 - 6 36 - 24 View
Apr 5, 2025
Columbus Blue Jackets Columbus Blue Jackets at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
0 - 5 27 - 27 View
Jan 22, 2025
Columbus Blue Jackets Columbus Blue Jackets at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
5 - 1 19 - 29 View
Oct 22, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Columbus Blue Jackets Columbus Blue Jackets
2 - 6 28 - 38 View
Dec 29, 2023
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Columbus Blue Jackets Columbus Blue Jackets
5 - 6 33 - 21 View
Dec 23, 2023
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Columbus Blue Jackets Columbus Blue Jackets
4 - 1 30 - 28 View
Dec 14, 2023
Columbus Blue Jackets Columbus Blue Jackets at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
6 - 5 35 - 48 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings CBJ TOR