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Colorado Avalanche vs Calgary Flames prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 8, 2026

NHL matchup

Colorado Avalanche at Calgary Flames

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 8, 2026.

October 8, 2026 · 8:00 PM CST
Away

Colorado Avalanche

6-5-1

7 Model pick
Final
Home

Calgary Flames

5-6-0

3
Model V2 pick: Colorado Avalanche at 56.4% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Colorado Avalanche logo
Away team

Colorado Avalanche

56.4%
Fair American -129
Fair decimal 1.77
Best market -238 · DraftKings
Market implied 70.4%
Edge -14.0%
Expected value -19.9%
Calculate value
Calgary Flames logo
Home team

Calgary Flames

43.6%
Fair American +129
Fair decimal 2.29
Best market +208 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 32.5%
Edge +11.1%
Expected value +34.3%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 8, 2026.

Calgary Flames

All Model Picks

Bets
2
Record
0-2
Net units
-2.00
ROI
-100.0%

Value Picks

Bets
3
Record
0-3
Net units
-3.00
ROI
-100.0%

Market Favourite

Bets
1
Record
0-1
Net units
-1.00
ROI
-100.0%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 8. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Colorado Avalanche

3 / 3 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

35:09 together · 3 games

xG share68.9%
Corsi for / against
38 / 35
Fenwick for / against
31 / 22
Corsi share
52.1%
Fenwick share
58.5%
xG for / against
1.85 / 0.83
All observed combinations

Calgary Flames

3 / 3 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

39:15 together · 3 games

xG share48.5%
Corsi for / against
44 / 36
Fenwick for / against
32 / 27
Corsi share
55.0%
Fenwick share
54.2%
xG for / against
1.68 / 1.78
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Mackenzie Blackwood

Colorado Avalanche · Last start: Oct 7

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
76
Save %
89.5
Goals allowed
8
Close-range shots %
27.6

Dustin Wolf

Calgary Flames · Last start: Oct 4

2 / 2 appearances covered

Shots faced
59
Save %
79.7
Goals allowed
12
Close-range shots %
33.9
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 8, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Colorado Avalanche

xG for / game
3.39
xG against / game
2.17
xG differential / game
1.22

3 / 3 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Calgary Flames

xG for / game
2.28
xG against / game
3.41
xG differential / game
-1.13

3 / 3 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 8, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Colorado Avalanche

3 / 3 games covered

Attempts / game
61.3
Corsi share (%)
52.4
Fenwick share (%)
54.1
Faceoff win %
48.1
Penalties / game
3.0

Shots / game: 33.0 · Shooting: 16.2% · Avg distance: 32.8 ft

Calgary Flames

3 / 3 games covered

Attempts / game
70.0
Corsi share (%)
54.5
Fenwick share (%)
51.7
Faceoff win %
50.3
Penalties / game
5.0

Shots / game: 27.3 · Shooting: 3.7% · Avg distance: 34.9 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Colorado Avalanche COL
Metric
Calgary Flames CGY
13Points10
0.542Points %0.455
49Goals for28
40Goals against41
9Goal differential-13
L1Current streakW4
Road versus home
Colorado Avalanche COL road
Metric
Calgary Flames CGY home
6Games7
2Wins4
4Points8
-2Goal differential-3
Last 10 games
Colorado Avalanche COL
Metric
Calgary Flames CGY
4-5-1Record5-5-0
9Points10
35Goals for27
35Goals against35
0Goal differential-8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Colorado Avalanche COL 9 wins
10 games reviewed
Calgary Flames CGY 1 wins
Total goals44 – 20
Goal differential +24 / -24
Goals per game4.4 / 2.0
Shots per game34.3 / 28.7
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 14, 2026
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
3 - 1 39 - 31 View
Apr 9, 2026
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
1 - 3 29 - 41 View
Mar 30, 2026
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
2 - 9 29 - 49 View
Mar 31, 2025
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
3 - 2 27 - 30 View
Mar 14, 2025
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
4 - 2 28 - 24 View
Feb 6, 2025
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
4 - 2 34 - 29 View
Mar 12, 2024
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
6 - 2 38 - 27 View
Dec 11, 2023
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
5 - 6 32 - 38 View
Nov 25, 2023
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
1 - 3 30 - 24 View
Feb 25, 2023
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
1 - 4 29 - 22 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings COL CGY