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Chicago Blackhawks vs Washington Capitals prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 30, 2027

NHL matchup

Chicago Blackhawks at Washington Capitals

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 30, 2027.

March 30, 2027 · 6:00 PM MBT
Away

Chicago Blackhawks

4-10-1

38.8%
at
Home

Washington Capitals

8-5-0

61.2% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Washington Capitals at 61.2%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Chicago Blackhawks logo
Away team

Chicago Blackhawks

38.8%
Fair American +158
Fair decimal 2.58
Calculate value
Washington Capitals logo
Home team

Washington Capitals

61.2%
Fair American -158
Fair decimal 1.63
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 30, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 30. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Chicago Blackhawks

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

57:03 together · 9 games

xG share39.4%
Corsi for / against
46 / 68
Fenwick for / against
35 / 48
Corsi share
40.4%
Fenwick share
42.2%
xG for / against
2.14 / 3.28
Defense pair

110:56 together · 10 games

xG share41.7%
Corsi for / against
73 / 104
Fenwick for / against
60 / 82
Corsi share
41.2%
Fenwick share
42.3%
xG for / against
3.72 / 5.21
All observed combinations

Washington Capitals

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

72:01 together · 9 games

xG share61.8%
Corsi for / against
82 / 69
Fenwick for / against
59 / 47
Corsi share
54.3%
Fenwick share
55.7%
xG for / against
4.57 / 2.83
Defense pair

78:32 together · 10 games

xG share42.5%
Corsi for / against
64 / 96
Fenwick for / against
51 / 73
Corsi share
40.0%
Fenwick share
41.1%
xG for / against
3.24 / 4.39
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Mar 30, 2027. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Spencer Knight

Chicago Blackhawks · Last start: Nov 2

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
145
Save %
90.3
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
41.4

Logan Thompson

Washington Capitals · Last start: Nov 1

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
142
Save %
89.4
Goals allowed
15
Close-range shots %
27.5
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 30, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Chicago Blackhawks

xG for / game
2.74
xG against / game
3.68
xG differential / game
-0.93

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Washington Capitals

xG for / game
3.53
xG against / game
3.04
xG differential / game
0.48

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 30, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Chicago Blackhawks

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
52.3
Corsi share (%)
46.2
Fenwick share (%)
45.0
Faceoff win %
42.0
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 24.6 · Shooting: 9.3% · Avg distance: 32.2 ft

Washington Capitals

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
56.4
Corsi share (%)
48.3
Fenwick share (%)
50.3
Faceoff win %
48.9
Penalties / game
3.9

Shots / game: 28.6 · Shooting: 11.5% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Mar 30, 2027.

Chicago Blackhawks

C. Bedard Cold · -0.97 P/GP

3 games vs Washington Capitals · 0.00 points/game
0.97 points/game across 157 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
3.0
J. Greenway Hot · +0.86 P/GP

3 games vs Washington Capitals · 1.00 points/game
0.14 points/game across 85 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
3
Points
3
Shots / game
0.7
O. Moore Hot · +0.68 P/GP

3 games vs Washington Capitals · 1.00 points/game
0.32 points/game across 71 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
2
Points
3
Shots / game
2.0
B. Byram Cold · -0.49 P/GP

5 games vs Washington Capitals · 0.00 points/game
0.49 points/game across 164 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
0.8
T. Teravainen Hot · +0.42 P/GP

4 games vs Washington Capitals · 1.00 points/game
0.58 points/game across 165 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
3
Points
4
Shots / game
1.0

Washington Capitals

A. Tuch Hot · +1.71 P/GP

4 games vs Chicago Blackhawks · 2.50 points/game
0.79 points/game across 170 games vs other opponents

Goals
4
Assists
6
Points
10
Shots / game
2.5
T. Wilson Cold · -0.81 P/GP

3 games vs Chicago Blackhawks · 0.00 points/game
0.81 points/game across 163 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.3
R. Leonard Hot · +0.80 P/GP

3 games vs Chicago Blackhawks · 1.33 points/game
0.53 points/game across 94 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
2
Points
4
Shots / game
2.3
A. Protas Cold · -0.76 P/GP

3 games vs Chicago Blackhawks · 0.00 points/game
0.76 points/game across 162 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.7
J. Chychrun Cold · -0.71 P/GP

4 games vs Chicago Blackhawks · 0.00 points/game
0.71 points/game across 163 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.0
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Chicago Blackhawks CHI
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH
9Points16
0.300Points %0.615
33Goals for44
58Goals against42
-25Goal differential2
L1Current streakL1
Road versus home
Chicago Blackhawks CHI road
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH home
6Games9
0Wins6
1Points12
-17Goal differential2
Last 10 games
Chicago Blackhawks CHI
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH
3-6-1Record6-4-0
7Points12
23Goals for33
37Goals against34
-14Goal differential-1
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Chicago Blackhawks CHI 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Washington Capitals WSH 6 wins
Total goals26 – 42
Goal differential -16 / +16
Goals per game2.6 / 4.2
Shots per game28.1 / 29.4
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Jan 9, 2026
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks
5 - 1 24 - 24 View
Jan 3, 2026
Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
3 - 2 33 - 34 View
Apr 4, 2025
Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
3 - 5 22 - 29 View
Dec 17, 2024
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks
2 - 3 22 - 23 View
Mar 9, 2024
Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
1 - 4 32 - 26 View
Dec 10, 2023
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks
4 - 2 27 - 34 View
Mar 23, 2023
Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
1 - 6 28 - 28 View
Dec 13, 2022
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks
7 - 3 30 - 29 View
Dec 15, 2021
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks
4 - 5 46 - 28 View
Dec 2, 2021
Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
4 - 3 28 - 28 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings CHI WSH