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Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 5, 2026

NHL matchup

Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 5, 2026.

November 5, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Chicago Blackhawks

3-8-0

30.2%
at
Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

7-3-1

69.8% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Tampa Bay Lightning at 69.8%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Chicago Blackhawks logo
Away team

Chicago Blackhawks

30.2%
Fair American +231
Fair decimal 3.31
Calculate value
Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Home team

Tampa Bay Lightning

69.8%
Fair American -231
Fair decimal 1.43
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 5, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 5. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Chicago Blackhawks

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

71:17 together · 9 games

xG share55.1%
Corsi for / against
48 / 57
Fenwick for / against
39 / 42
Corsi share
45.7%
Fenwick share
48.1%
xG for / against
2.97 / 2.42
Defense pair

112:28 together · 10 games

xG share40.8%
Corsi for / against
59 / 104
Fenwick for / against
48 / 77
Corsi share
36.2%
Fenwick share
38.4%
xG for / against
3.26 / 4.74
All observed combinations

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

123:37 together · 10 games

xG share61.5%
Corsi for / against
154 / 103
Fenwick for / against
114 / 80
Corsi share
59.9%
Fenwick share
58.8%
xG for / against
7.27 / 4.55
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Spencer Knight

Chicago Blackhawks · Last start: Oct 25

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
154
Save %
89.6
Goals allowed
16
Close-range shots %
42.2

Dennis Hildeby

Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 24

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
78
Save %
88.5
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
35.9
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 5, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Chicago Blackhawks

xG for / game
2.38
xG against / game
3.48
xG differential / game
-1.10

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG for / game
3.56
xG against / game
2.79
xG differential / game
0.77

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 5, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Chicago Blackhawks

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
45.1
Corsi share (%)
43.2
Fenwick share (%)
41.9
Faceoff win %
42.7
Penalties / game
3.8

Shots / game: 20.9 · Shooting: 10.5% · Avg distance: 31.3 ft

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
63.5
Corsi share (%)
55.1
Fenwick share (%)
55.6
Faceoff win %
49.5
Penalties / game
3.7

Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Chicago Blackhawks CHI
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
6Points15
0.273Points %0.682
24Goals for38
43Goals against34
-19Goal differential4
L3Current streakOT1
Road versus home
Chicago Blackhawks CHI road
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL home
4Games5
0Wins5
0Points10
-13Goal differential9
Last 10 games
Chicago Blackhawks CHI
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
3-7-0Record7-2-1
6Points15
22Goals for37
38Goals against29
-16Goal differential8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Chicago Blackhawks CHI 3 wins
10 games reviewed
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 7 wins
Total goals25 – 34
Goal differential -9 / +9
Goals per game2.5 / 3.4
Shots per game22.0 / 34.3
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Jan 23, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks
2 - 1 31 - 18 View
Oct 23, 2025
Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 2 25 - 31 View
Jan 28, 2025
Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 1 21 - 35 View
Jan 24, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks
4 - 3 40 - 14 View
Nov 16, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks
4 - 2 32 - 14 View
Nov 9, 2023
Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
5 - 3 29 - 33 View
Mar 11, 2023
Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 3 23 - 37 View
Jan 3, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks
4 - 1 29 - 26 View
Apr 1, 2022
Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
2 - 5 23 - 43 View
Mar 6, 2022
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks
6 - 3 32 - 27 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
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