Away team
Carolina Hurricanes
52.8%
Fair American
-112
Fair decimal
1.89
Carolina Hurricanes vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 25, 2026
NHL matchup
Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 25, 2026.
November 25, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Carolina Hurricanes at 52.8%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Tampa Bay Lightning
47.2%
Fair American
+112
Fair decimal
2.12
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 25, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 12
- Record
- 9-3
- Net units
- 2.25
- ROI
- 18.7%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 2
- Record
- 1-1
- Net units
- -0.35
- ROI
- -17.3%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 14
- Record
- 10-4
- Net units
- 1.55
- ROI
- 11.1%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 5-1
- Net units
- 1.45
- ROI
- 24.2%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Net units
- 0.00
- ROI
- —
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 6-2
- Net units
- 1.06
- ROI
- 13.3%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 25. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Carolina Hurricanes
This selection is unavailable until complete validated shift records cover every selected game.
All observed combinationsTampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
95:17 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 85 / 83
- Fenwick for / against
- 64 / 59
- Corsi share
- 50.6%
- Fenwick share
- 52.0%
- xG for / against
- 3.69 / 3.31
Defense pair
123:37 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 154 / 103
- Fenwick for / against
- 114 / 80
- Corsi share
- 59.9%
- Fenwick share
- 58.8%
- xG for / against
- 7.27 / 4.55
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Carolina Hurricanes
Expected starter unavailable.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Pyotr Kochetkov
Carolina Hurricanes · Last start: Oct 24
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 105
- Save %
- 92.4
- Goals allowed
- 8
- Close-range shots %
- 35.2
Dennis Hildeby
Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 24
3 / 3 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 78
- Save %
- 88.5
- Goals allowed
- 9
- Close-range shots %
- 35.9
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 25, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Carolina Hurricanes
- xG for / game
- 3.95
- xG against / game
- 2.42
- xG differential / game
- 1.53
9 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Tampa Bay Lightning
- xG for / game
- 3.56
- xG against / game
- 2.79
- xG differential / game
- 0.77
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 25, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Carolina Hurricanes
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 67.9
- Corsi share (%)
- 59.4
- Fenwick share (%)
- 60.4
- Faceoff win %
- 50.0
- Penalties / game
- 3.5
Shots / game: 35.3 · Shooting: 13.0% · Avg distance: 31.3 ft
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 63.5
- Corsi share (%)
- 55.1
- Fenwick share (%)
- 55.6
- Faceoff win %
- 49.5
- Penalties / game
- 3.7
Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
CAR
|
Metric |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 22 | Points | 15 |
| 0.786 | Points % | 0.682 |
| 53 | Goals for | 38 |
| 34 | Goals against | 34 |
| 19 | Goal differential | 4 |
| W2 | Current streak | OT1 |
Road versus home
|
CAR road
|
Metric |
TBL home
|
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Games | 5 |
| 7 | Wins | 5 |
| 15 | Points | 10 |
| 15 | Goal differential | 9 |
Last 10 games
|
CAR
|
Metric |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 8-1-1 | Record | 7-2-1 |
| 17 | Points | 15 |
| 42 | Goals for | 37 |
| 22 | Goals against | 29 |
| 20 | Goal differential | 8 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
CAR
4 wins
10
games reviewed
TBL
6 wins
Total goals26 – 35
Goal differential
-9
/
+9
Goals per game2.6 / 3.5
Shots per game29.2 / 23.6
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 |
Carolina Hurricanes
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 2 | 35 - 19 | View |
| Feb 26, 2026 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Carolina Hurricanes
|
4 - 5 | 28 - 33 | View |
| Dec 20, 2025 |
Carolina Hurricanes
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 6 | 22 - 29 | View |
| Mar 11, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Carolina Hurricanes
|
1 - 4 | 24 - 31 | View |
| Jan 7, 2025 |
Carolina Hurricanes
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
2 - 3 | 31 - 33 | View |
| Oct 11, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Carolina Hurricanes
|
4 - 1 | 23 - 21 | View |
| Nov 24, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Carolina Hurricanes
|
8 - 2 | 14 - 24 | View |
| Nov 11, 2023 |
Carolina Hurricanes
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 0 | 32 - 22 | View |
| Oct 24, 2023 |
Carolina Hurricanes
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
0 - 3 | 32 - 23 | View |
| Mar 28, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Carolina Hurricanes
|
4 - 0 | 21 - 31 | View |