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Carolina Hurricanes vs Calgary Flames prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 18, 2026

NHL matchup

Carolina Hurricanes at Calgary Flames

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 18, 2026.

October 18, 2026 · 7:00 PM CST
Away

Carolina Hurricanes

10-2-2

2 Model pick
Final
Home

Calgary Flames

5-6-0

3
Model V2 pick: Carolina Hurricanes at 53.5% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Carolina Hurricanes logo
Away team

Carolina Hurricanes

53.5%
Fair American -115
Fair decimal 1.87
Best market -215 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 68.3%
Edge -14.8%
Expected value -21.6%
Calculate value
Calgary Flames logo
Home team

Calgary Flames

46.5%
Fair American +115
Fair decimal 2.15
Best market +187 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 34.8%
Edge +11.7%
Expected value +33.5%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 18, 2026.

Calgary Flames

All Model Picks

Bets
2
Record
0-2
Net units
-2.00
ROI
-100.0%

Value Picks

Bets
7
Record
1-6
Net units
-4.50
ROI
-64.3%

Market Favourite

Bets
1
Record
0-1
Net units
-1.00
ROI
-100.0%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 18. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Carolina Hurricanes

9 / 9 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

136:25 together · 9 games

xG share50.1%
Corsi for / against
135 / 107
Fenwick for / against
90 / 81
Corsi share
55.8%
Fenwick share
52.6%
xG for / against
5.75 / 5.73
All observed combinations

Calgary Flames

7 / 7 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

90:12 together · 7 games

xG share45.6%
Corsi for / against
92 / 110
Fenwick for / against
70 / 80
Corsi share
45.5%
Fenwick share
46.7%
xG for / against
4.02 / 4.79
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Carolina Hurricanes

Brandon Bussi 94.0%
Other eligible goalies

Why Brandon Bussi?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Team played yesterday
+1.566
Started last game
+0.600
Days since last start
+0.432
Consecutive starts
+0.226
Won previous appearance
+0.219
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 18, 5:01 AM Winnipeg time

Calgary Flames

Dustin Wolf 56.0%
Other eligible goalies

Why Dustin Wolf?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Prev save pct
-0.612
Team win pct before
+0.501
Goalie team start share
+0.409
Rolling 5 game avg save pct
-0.344
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.324
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 18, 5:01 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Pyotr Kochetkov

Carolina Hurricanes · Last start: Oct 17

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
102
Save %
91.2
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
33.3

Dustin Wolf

Calgary Flames · Last start: Oct 15

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
145
Save %
83.4
Goals allowed
24
Close-range shots %
35.9
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 18, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Carolina Hurricanes

xG for / game
3.90
xG against / game
2.54
xG differential / game
1.35

9 / 9 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Calgary Flames

xG for / game
2.78
xG against / game
3.33
xG differential / game
-0.56

7 / 7 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 18, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Carolina Hurricanes

9 / 9 games covered

Attempts / game
66.8
Corsi share (%)
59.9
Fenwick share (%)
59.9
Faceoff win %
50.9
Penalties / game
4.44

Shots / game: 32.8 · Shooting: 11.5% · Avg distance: 30.9 ft

Calgary Flames

7 / 7 games covered

Attempts / game
68.1
Corsi share (%)
53.3
Fenwick share (%)
51.7
Faceoff win %
49.8
Penalties / game
5.14

Shots / game: 29.4 · Shooting: 6.8% · Avg distance: 32.9 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Carolina Hurricanes CAR
Metric
Calgary Flames CGY
22Points10
0.786Points %0.455
53Goals for28
34Goals against41
19Goal differential-13
W2Current streakW4
Road versus home
Carolina Hurricanes CAR road
Metric
Calgary Flames CGY home
9Games7
7Wins4
15Points8
15Goal differential-3
Last 10 games
Carolina Hurricanes CAR
Metric
Calgary Flames CGY
8-1-1Record5-5-0
17Points10
42Goals for27
22Goals against35
20Goal differential-8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Carolina Hurricanes CAR 7 wins
10 games reviewed
Calgary Flames CGY 3 wins
Total goals33 – 22
Goal differential +11 / -11
Goals per game3.3 / 2.2
Shots per game31.5 / 25.4
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 7, 2026
Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
4 - 5 29 - 25 View
Nov 30, 2025
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes
0 - 1 16 - 17 View
Mar 2, 2025
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes
1 - 2 16 - 33 View
Oct 24, 2024
Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
4 - 2 43 - 32 View
Mar 10, 2024
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes
2 - 7 20 - 40 View
Dec 7, 2023
Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
2 - 3 30 - 27 View
Nov 26, 2022
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes
2 - 3 20 - 33 View
Oct 22, 2022
Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
2 - 3 27 - 32 View
Jan 7, 2022
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes
3 - 6 39 - 37 View
Dec 9, 2021
Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
2 - 1 26 - 27 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings CAR CGY