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Calgary Flames vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 26, 2027

NHL matchup

Calgary Flames at Toronto Maple Leafs

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 26, 2027.

January 26, 2027 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Calgary Flames

4-6-0

40.0%
at
Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-4-2

60.0% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Toronto Maple Leafs at 60.0%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Home team

Toronto Maple Leafs

60.0%
Fair American -150
Fair decimal 1.67
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Jan 26, 2027.

Calgary Flames

All Model Picks

Bets
3
Record
1-2
Net units
-0.25
ROI
-8.3%

Value Picks

Bets
10
Record
4-6
Net units
0.40
ROI
4.0%

Market Favourite

Bets
1
Record
0-1
Net units
-1.00
ROI
-100.0%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 26. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Calgary Flames

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

53:06 together · 7 games

xG share54.9%
Corsi for / against
58 / 49
Fenwick for / against
42 / 35
Corsi share
54.2%
Fenwick share
54.5%
xG for / against
2.28 / 1.88
Defense pair

112:12 together · 10 games

xG share54.1%
Corsi for / against
125 / 98
Fenwick for / against
91 / 73
Corsi share
56.1%
Fenwick share
55.5%
xG for / against
5.70 / 4.83
All observed combinations

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

104:16 together · 10 games

xG share45.0%
Corsi for / against
87 / 118
Fenwick for / against
71 / 87
Corsi share
42.4%
Fenwick share
44.9%
xG for / against
4.07 / 4.98
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Devin Cooley

Calgary Flames · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
159
Save %
91.2
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
26.4

Anthony Stolarz

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
150
Save %
90.7
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
31.3
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 26, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Calgary Flames

xG for / game
2.61
xG against / game
3.37
xG differential / game
-0.76

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
3.20
xG against / game
3.44
xG differential / game
-0.24

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 26, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Calgary Flames

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
61.2
Corsi share (%)
49.4
Fenwick share (%)
47.9
Faceoff win %
49.5
Penalties / game
4.6

Shots / game: 28.7 · Shooting: 8.0% · Avg distance: 33.9 ft

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.0
Corsi share (%)
46.0
Fenwick share (%)
48.2
Faceoff win %
53.1
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 29.0 · Shooting: 15.2% · Avg distance: 32.5 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Calgary Flames CGY
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
8Points16
0.400Points %0.615
23Goals for50
39Goals against41
-16Goal differential9
W3Current streakW4
Road versus home
Calgary Flames CGY road
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR home
4Games8
1Wins4
2Points9
-10Goal differential-1
Last 10 games
Calgary Flames CGY
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
4-6-0Record6-2-2
8Points14
23Goals for44
39Goals against34
-16Goal differential10
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Calgary Flames CGY 1 wins
10 games reviewed
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 9 wins
Total goals28 – 40
Goal differential -12 / +12
Goals per game2.8 / 4.0
Shots per game27.4 / 33.9
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Feb 2, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
4 - 2 22 - 30 View
Oct 28, 2025
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 4 29 - 37 View
Mar 17, 2025
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
2 - 6 26 - 29 View
Feb 4, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
6 - 3 30 - 26 View
Jan 18, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
4 - 3 32 - 26 View
Nov 10, 2023
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 5 28 - 36 View
Mar 2, 2023
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
2 - 1 34 - 26 View
Dec 10, 2022
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 5 26 - 34 View
Feb 10, 2022
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
2 - 5 48 - 26 View
Nov 12, 2021
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
1 - 2 31 - 37 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
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