Away team
Calgary Flames
40.9%
Fair American
+144
Fair decimal
2.44
Calgary Flames vs Pittsburgh Penguins prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 25, 2026
NHL matchup
Calgary Flames at Pittsburgh Penguins
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 25, 2026.
November 25, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Pittsburgh Penguins at 59.1%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Pittsburgh Penguins
59.1%
Fair American
-144
Fair decimal
1.69
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 25, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 1-2
- Net units
- -0.25
- ROI
- -8.3%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 11
- Record
- 5-6
- Net units
- 1.73
- ROI
- 15.7%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 1
- Record
- 0-1
- Net units
- -1.00
- ROI
- -100.0%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 5-3
- Net units
- 2.59
- ROI
- 32.4%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 4-4
- Net units
- 0.85
- ROI
- 10.7%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 4
- Record
- 2-2
- Net units
- -0.38
- ROI
- -9.5%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 25. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Calgary Flames
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
60:08 together · 8 games
- Corsi for / against
- 69 / 51
- Fenwick for / against
- 52 / 37
- Corsi share
- 57.5%
- Fenwick share
- 58.4%
- xG for / against
- 2.64 / 1.96
Defense pair
113:54 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 126 / 94
- Fenwick for / against
- 93 / 71
- Corsi share
- 57.3%
- Fenwick share
- 56.7%
- xG for / against
- 5.69 / 4.86
Pittsburgh Penguins
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
62:36 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 62 / 60
- Fenwick for / against
- 44 / 50
- Corsi share
- 50.8%
- Fenwick share
- 46.8%
- xG for / against
- 3.72 / 4.52
Defense pair
83:42 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 96 / 88
- Fenwick for / against
- 70 / 70
- Corsi share
- 52.2%
- Fenwick share
- 50.0%
- xG for / against
- 3.95 / 5.54
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Calgary Flames
Expected starter unavailable.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Devin Cooley
Calgary Flames · Last start: Oct 26
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 163
- Save %
- 92.0
- Goals allowed
- 13
- Close-range shots %
- 27.6
Arturs Silovs
Pittsburgh Penguins · Last start: Oct 24
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 138
- Save %
- 90.6
- Goals allowed
- 13
- Close-range shots %
- 32.6
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 25, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Calgary Flames
- xG for / game
- 2.71
- xG against / game
- 3.20
- xG differential / game
- -0.48
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Pittsburgh Penguins
- xG for / game
- 3.15
- xG against / game
- 3.33
- xG differential / game
- -0.18
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 25, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Calgary Flames
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 61.7
- Corsi share (%)
- 50.2
- Fenwick share (%)
- 48.7
- Faceoff win %
- 48.5
- Penalties / game
- 4.5
Shots / game: 29.6 · Shooting: 9.1% · Avg distance: 34.2 ft
Pittsburgh Penguins
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 57.9
- Corsi share (%)
- 50.9
- Fenwick share (%)
- 50.1
- Faceoff win %
- 46.6
- Penalties / game
- 2.9
Shots / game: 26.5 · Shooting: 9.8% · Avg distance: 31.3 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
CGY
|
Metric |
PIT
|
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Points | 11 |
| 0.455 | Points % | 0.458 |
| 28 | Goals for | 40 |
| 41 | Goals against | 40 |
| -13 | Goal differential | 0 |
| W4 | Current streak | W2 |
Road versus home
|
CGY road
|
Metric |
PIT home
|
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Games | 5 |
| 1 | Wins | 4 |
| 2 | Points | 8 |
| -10 | Goal differential | 6 |
Last 10 games
|
CGY
|
Metric |
PIT
|
|---|---|---|
| 5-5-0 | Record | 3-6-1 |
| 10 | Points | 7 |
| 27 | Goals for | 27 |
| 35 | Goals against | 35 |
| -8 | Goal differential | -8 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
CGY
6 wins
10
games reviewed
PIT
4 wins
Total goals26 – 26
Goal differential
0
/
0
Goals per game2.6 / 2.6
Shots per game29.4 / 33.2
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2026 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Calgary Flames
|
4 - 1 | 25 - 19 | View |
| Jan 10, 2026 |
Calgary Flames
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
2 - 1 | 25 - 28 | View |
| Nov 30, 2024 |
Calgary Flames
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
2 - 6 | 32 - 43 | View |
| Oct 22, 2024 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Calgary Flames
|
3 - 4 | 38 - 25 | View |
| Mar 2, 2024 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Calgary Flames
|
3 - 4 | 30 - 20 | View |
| Oct 14, 2023 |
Calgary Flames
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
2 - 5 | 36 - 29 | View |
| Nov 23, 2022 |
Calgary Flames
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
1 - 2 | 34 - 39 | View |
| Oct 25, 2022 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Calgary Flames
|
1 - 4 | 33 - 36 | View |
| Nov 29, 2021 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Calgary Flames
|
1 - 2 | 22 - 32 | View |
| Oct 28, 2021 |
Calgary Flames
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
4 - 0 | 35 - 45 | View |