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Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 2, 2027

NHL matchup

Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 2, 2027.

January 2, 2027 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Buffalo Sabres

5-4-3

38.4%
at
Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

7-3-1

61.6% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Tampa Bay Lightning at 61.6%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Home team

Tampa Bay Lightning

61.6%
Fair American -160
Fair decimal 1.62
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Jan 2, 2027.

Buffalo Sabres

All Model Picks

Bets
7
Record
3-4
Net units
-1.66
ROI
-23.7%

Value Picks

Bets
6
Record
1-5
Net units
-4.07
ROI
-67.8%

Market Favourite

Bets
5
Record
3-2
Net units
0.10
ROI
2.0%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 2. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Buffalo Sabres

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

89:52 together · 10 games

xG share70.3%
Corsi for / against
94 / 46
Fenwick for / against
62 / 34
Corsi share
67.1%
Fenwick share
64.6%
xG for / against
5.12 / 2.16
Defense pair

82:50 together · 7 games

xG share47.9%
Corsi for / against
70 / 73
Fenwick for / against
48 / 49
Corsi share
49.0%
Fenwick share
49.5%
xG for / against
3.17 / 3.45
All observed combinations

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

123:37 together · 10 games

xG share61.5%
Corsi for / against
154 / 103
Fenwick for / against
114 / 80
Corsi share
59.9%
Fenwick share
58.8%
xG for / against
7.27 / 4.55
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Colten Ellis

Buffalo Sabres · Last start: Oct 27

4 / 4 appearances covered

Shots faced
82
Save %
90.2
Goals allowed
8
Close-range shots %
26.8

Dennis Hildeby

Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 24

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
78
Save %
88.5
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
35.9
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 2, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Buffalo Sabres

xG for / game
3.17
xG against / game
3.59
xG differential / game
-0.41

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG for / game
3.56
xG against / game
2.79
xG differential / game
0.77

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 2, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Buffalo Sabres

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
57.2
Corsi share (%)
50.0
Fenwick share (%)
49.0
Faceoff win %
47.4
Penalties / game
4.3

Shots / game: 27.6 · Shooting: 9.4% · Avg distance: 30.7 ft

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
63.5
Corsi share (%)
55.1
Fenwick share (%)
55.6
Faceoff win %
49.5
Penalties / game
3.7

Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Buffalo Sabres BUF
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
13Points15
0.542Points %0.682
33Goals for38
41Goals against34
-8Goal differential4
W1Current streakOT1
Road versus home
Buffalo Sabres BUF road
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL home
6Games5
2Wins5
7Points10
-3Goal differential9
Last 10 games
Buffalo Sabres BUF
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
4-3-3Record7-2-1
11Points15
26Goals for37
32Goals against29
-6Goal differential8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Buffalo Sabres BUF 6 wins
10 games reviewed
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 4 wins
Total goals41 – 37
Goal differential +4 / -4
Goals per game4.1 / 3.7
Shots per game31.2 / 27.9
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 6, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
2 - 4 25 - 29 View
Mar 8, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
7 - 8 28 - 42 View
Feb 28, 2026
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
6 - 2 35 - 38 View
Feb 3, 2026
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 4 26 - 35 View
Apr 13, 2025
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 7 25 - 31 View
Apr 5, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
2 - 3 24 - 38 View
Mar 6, 2025
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
5 - 6 33 - 26 View
Apr 15, 2024
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 2 34 - 33 View
Feb 29, 2024
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 2 23 - 23 View
Jan 20, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
3 - 1 16 - 27 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
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