Away team
Buffalo Sabres
54.2%
Fair American
-118
Fair decimal
1.85
Buffalo Sabres vs Calgary Flames prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 3, 2026
NHL matchup
Buffalo Sabres at Calgary Flames
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 3, 2026.
December 3, 2026
· 7:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Buffalo Sabres at 54.2%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Calgary Flames
45.8%
Fair American
+118
Fair decimal
2.18
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 3, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 3-4
- Net units
- -1.66
- ROI
- -23.7%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 1-5
- Net units
- -4.07
- ROI
- -67.8%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 5
- Record
- 3-2
- Net units
- 0.10
- ROI
- 2.0%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 1-2
- Net units
- -0.25
- ROI
- -8.3%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 11
- Record
- 5-6
- Net units
- 1.73
- ROI
- 15.7%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 1
- Record
- 0-1
- Net units
- -1.00
- ROI
- -100.0%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 3. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Buffalo Sabres
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
89:52 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 94 / 46
- Fenwick for / against
- 62 / 34
- Corsi share
- 67.1%
- Fenwick share
- 64.6%
- xG for / against
- 5.12 / 2.16
Defense pair
82:50 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 70 / 73
- Fenwick for / against
- 48 / 49
- Corsi share
- 49.0%
- Fenwick share
- 49.5%
- xG for / against
- 3.17 / 3.45
Calgary Flames
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
60:08 together · 8 games
- Corsi for / against
- 69 / 51
- Fenwick for / against
- 52 / 37
- Corsi share
- 57.5%
- Fenwick share
- 58.4%
- xG for / against
- 2.64 / 1.96
Defense pair
113:54 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 125 / 95
- Fenwick for / against
- 92 / 72
- Corsi share
- 56.8%
- Fenwick share
- 56.1%
- xG for / against
- 5.68 / 4.76
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Buffalo Sabres
Expected starter unavailable.
Calgary Flames
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Colten Ellis
Buffalo Sabres · Last start: Oct 27
4 / 4 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 82
- Save %
- 90.2
- Goals allowed
- 8
- Close-range shots %
- 26.8
Devin Cooley
Calgary Flames · Last start: Oct 26
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 163
- Save %
- 92.0
- Goals allowed
- 13
- Close-range shots %
- 27.6
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 3, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Buffalo Sabres
- xG for / game
- 3.17
- xG against / game
- 3.59
- xG differential / game
- -0.41
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Calgary Flames
- xG for / game
- 2.71
- xG against / game
- 3.19
- xG differential / game
- -0.47
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 3, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Buffalo Sabres
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 57.2
- Corsi share (%)
- 50.0
- Fenwick share (%)
- 49.0
- Faceoff win %
- 47.4
- Penalties / game
- 4.3
Shots / game: 27.6 · Shooting: 9.4% · Avg distance: 30.7 ft
Calgary Flames
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 61.6
- Corsi share (%)
- 50.1
- Fenwick share (%)
- 48.6
- Faceoff win %
- 48.4
- Penalties / game
- 4.5
Shots / game: 29.6 · Shooting: 9.1% · Avg distance: 34.0 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
BUF
|
Metric |
CGY
|
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Points | 10 |
| 0.542 | Points % | 0.455 |
| 33 | Goals for | 28 |
| 41 | Goals against | 41 |
| -8 | Goal differential | -13 |
| W1 | Current streak | W4 |
Road versus home
|
BUF road
|
Metric |
CGY home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 7 |
| 2 | Wins | 4 |
| 7 | Points | 8 |
| -3 | Goal differential | -3 |
Last 10 games
|
BUF
|
Metric |
CGY
|
|---|---|---|
| 4-3-3 | Record | 5-5-0 |
| 11 | Points | 10 |
| 26 | Goals for | 27 |
| 32 | Goals against | 35 |
| -6 | Goal differential | -8 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
BUF
4 wins
10
games reviewed
CGY
6 wins
Total goals27 – 40
Goal differential
-13
/
+13
Goals per game2.7 / 4.0
Shots per game28.4 / 32.4
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2025 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Calgary Flames
|
4 - 7 | 29 - 28 | View |
| Nov 19, 2025 |
Calgary Flames
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
6 - 2 | 35 - 30 | View |
| Jan 23, 2025 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Calgary Flames
|
2 - 5 | 34 - 26 | View |
| Nov 9, 2024 |
Calgary Flames
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
2 - 3 | 26 - 19 | View |
| Mar 24, 2024 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Calgary Flames
|
4 - 1 | 29 - 33 | View |
| Oct 19, 2023 |
Calgary Flames
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
4 - 3 | 36 - 27 | View |
| Feb 11, 2023 |
Calgary Flames
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
7 - 2 | 40 - 23 | View |
| Oct 20, 2022 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Calgary Flames
|
6 - 3 | 32 - 43 | View |
| Mar 18, 2022 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Calgary Flames
|
1 - 0 | 34 - 24 | View |
| Nov 18, 2021 |
Calgary Flames
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
5 - 0 | 33 - 27 | View |