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Boston Bruins vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for April 10, 2027

NHL matchup

Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for April 10, 2027.

April 10, 2027 · 7:00 PM CST
Away

Boston Bruins

9-2-1

39.5%
at
Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

7-3-1

60.5% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Tampa Bay Lightning at 60.5%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Home team

Tampa Bay Lightning

60.5%
Fair American -153
Fair decimal 1.65
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Apr 10, 2027.

Boston Bruins

All Model Picks

Bets
8
Record
6-2
Net units
3.03
ROI
37.9%

Value Picks

Bets
7
Record
4-3
Net units
0.79
ROI
11.3%

Market Favourite

Bets
6
Record
6-0
Net units
4.68
ROI
78.1%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Apr 10. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Boston Bruins

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

113:24 together · 9 games

xG share48.5%
Corsi for / against
96 / 122
Fenwick for / against
70 / 81
Corsi share
44.0%
Fenwick share
46.4%
xG for / against
5.44 / 5.77
All observed combinations

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

123:37 together · 10 games

xG share61.5%
Corsi for / against
154 / 103
Fenwick for / against
114 / 80
Corsi share
59.9%
Fenwick share
58.8%
xG for / against
7.27 / 4.55
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Jeremy Swayman

Boston Bruins · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
131
Save %
90.8
Goals allowed
12
Close-range shots %
32.8

Dennis Hildeby

Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 24

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
78
Save %
88.5
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
35.9
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Apr 10, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Boston Bruins

xG for / game
3.30
xG against / game
3.04
xG differential / game
0.26

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG for / game
3.56
xG against / game
2.79
xG differential / game
0.77

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Apr 10, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Boston Bruins

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
51.1
Corsi share (%)
46.5
Fenwick share (%)
48.3
Faceoff win %
54.0
Penalties / game
5.0

Shots / game: 26.2 · Shooting: 15.6% · Avg distance: 31.2 ft

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
63.5
Corsi share (%)
55.1
Fenwick share (%)
55.6
Faceoff win %
49.5
Penalties / game
3.7

Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Boston Bruins BOS
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
19Points15
0.792Points %0.682
48Goals for38
26Goals against34
22Goal differential4
W2Current streakOT1
Road versus home
Boston Bruins BOS road
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL home
6Games5
4Wins5
9Points10
5Goal differential9
Last 10 games
Boston Bruins BOS
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
7-2-1Record7-2-1
15Points15
41Goals for37
23Goals against29
18Goal differential8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Boston Bruins BOS 2 wins
10 games reviewed
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 8 wins
Total goals26 – 33
Goal differential -7 / +7
Goals per game2.6 / 3.3
Shots per game26.0 / 31.3
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 11, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
2 - 1 24 - 20 View
Apr 4, 2026
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 3 22 - 23 View
Feb 1, 2026
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
5 - 6 34 - 46 View
Oct 13, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
4 - 3 23 - 33 View
Mar 15, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
6 - 2 40 - 12 View
Mar 8, 2025
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 0 25 - 25 View
Jan 14, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
2 - 6 45 - 24 View
Jan 9, 2025
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 4 28 - 31 View
Mar 27, 2024
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 3 24 - 31 View
Feb 13, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
3 - 2 25 - 38 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings BOS TBL