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Boston Bruins vs Anaheim Ducks prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 16, 2026

NHL matchup

Boston Bruins at Anaheim Ducks

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 16, 2026.

October 16, 2026 · 9:00 PM CST
Away

Boston Bruins

9-3-1

4 Model pick
Final
Home

Anaheim Ducks

5-6-1

2
Model V2 pick: Boston Bruins at 54.0% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Boston Bruins logo
Away team

Boston Bruins

54.0%
Fair American -117
Fair decimal 1.85
Best market -112 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 52.8%
Edge +1.2%
Expected value +2.2%
Calculate value
Anaheim Ducks logo
Home team

Anaheim Ducks

46.0%
Fair American +117
Fair decimal 2.17
Best market +100 · BetRivers
Market implied 50.0%
Edge -4.0%
Expected value -8.0%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 16, 2026.

Boston Bruins

All Model Picks

Bets
3
Record
2-1
Net units
0.70
ROI
23.2%

Value Picks

Bets
4
Record
2-2
Net units
-0.30
ROI
-7.6%

Market Favourite

Bets
3
Record
3-0
Net units
2.55
ROI
85.0%
Full team betting results

Anaheim Ducks

All Model Picks

Bets
5
Record
3-2
Net units
1.07
ROI
21.3%

Value Picks

Bets
4
Record
3-1
Net units
2.88
ROI
72.0%

Market Favourite

Bets
2
Record
1-1
Net units
-0.15
ROI
-7.6%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 16. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Boston Bruins

7 / 7 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

42:21 together · 6 games

xG share55.9%
Corsi for / against
43 / 38
Fenwick for / against
27 / 24
Corsi share
53.1%
Fenwick share
52.9%
xG for / against
1.88 / 1.48
Defense pair

93:35 together · 6 games

xG share59.2%
Corsi for / against
88 / 75
Fenwick for / against
65 / 59
Corsi share
54.0%
Fenwick share
52.4%
xG for / against
4.52 / 3.11
All observed combinations

Anaheim Ducks

6 / 6 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

45:20 together · 6 games

xG share53.1%
Corsi for / against
37 / 47
Fenwick for / against
24 / 31
Corsi share
44.0%
Fenwick share
43.6%
xG for / against
2.05 / 1.81
Defense pair

55:36 together · 5 games

xG share39.4%
Corsi for / against
42 / 58
Fenwick for / against
31 / 41
Corsi share
42.0%
Fenwick share
43.1%
xG for / against
1.77 / 2.73
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Boston Bruins

Jeremy Swayman 69.5%
Other eligible goalies

Why Jeremy Swayman?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.995
Days since last start
+0.436
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.425
Team win pct before
-0.381
Consecutive starts
-0.360
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 16, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Anaheim Ducks

Lukas Dostal 71.7%
Other eligible goalies

Why Lukas Dostal?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+1.121
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.520
Days since last start
+0.327
Started last game
-0.286
Team win pct before
-0.224
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 16, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Jeremy Swayman

Boston Bruins · Last start: Oct 13

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
147
Save %
91.8
Goals allowed
12
Close-range shots %
29.3

Lukas Dostal

Anaheim Ducks · Last start: Oct 13

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
130
Save %
89.2
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
28.5
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 16, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Boston Bruins

xG for / game
2.96
xG against / game
2.87
xG differential / game
0.09

7 / 7 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Anaheim Ducks

xG for / game
2.88
xG against / game
3.20
xG differential / game
-0.32

6 / 6 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 16, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Boston Bruins

7 / 7 games covered

Attempts / game
53.0
Corsi share (%)
48.0
Fenwick share (%)
49.0
Faceoff win %
50.6
Penalties / game
4.71

Shots / game: 25.6 · Shooting: 14.5% · Avg distance: 31.5 ft

Anaheim Ducks

6 / 6 games covered

Attempts / game
53.8
Corsi share (%)
46.1
Fenwick share (%)
47.6
Faceoff win %
45.3
Penalties / game
4.17

Shots / game: 23.5 · Shooting: 14.2% · Avg distance: 33.7 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Boston Bruins BOS
Metric
Anaheim Ducks ANA
19Points11
0.731Points %0.458
49Goals for37
28Goals against43
21Goal differential-6
L1Current streakOT1
Road versus home
Boston Bruins BOS road
Metric
Anaheim Ducks ANA home
7Games5
4Wins1
9Points3
4Goal differential-7
Last 10 games
Boston Bruins BOS
Metric
Anaheim Ducks ANA
7-2-1Record3-6-1
15Points7
41Goals for30
21Goals against38
20Goal differential-8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Boston Bruins BOS 3 wins
10 games reviewed
Anaheim Ducks ANA 7 wins
Total goals33 – 36
Goal differential -3 / +3
Goals per game3.3 / 3.6
Shots per game33.0 / 30.7
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Nov 19, 2025
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks
3 - 4 39 - 33 View
Oct 23, 2025
Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
7 - 5 30 - 42 View
Mar 26, 2025
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks
2 - 6 25 - 37 View
Feb 22, 2025
Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
3 - 2 29 - 30 View
Oct 26, 2023
Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
4 - 3 32 - 30 View
Oct 22, 2023
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks
3 - 1 26 - 31 View
Jan 8, 2023
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks
7 - 1 42 - 29 View
Oct 20, 2022
Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
1 - 2 31 - 36 View
Mar 1, 2022
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks
3 - 4 34 - 28 View
Jan 24, 2022
Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
5 - 3 27 - 26 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings BOS ANA