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Anaheim Ducks vs New York Islanders prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 20, 2026

NHL matchup

Anaheim Ducks at New York Islanders

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 20, 2026.

October 20, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Anaheim Ducks

5-6-1

2
Final
Home

New York Islanders

6-4-2

3 Model pick
Model V2 pick: New York Islanders at 61.6% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Anaheim Ducks logo
Away team

Anaheim Ducks

38.4%
Fair American +160
Fair decimal 2.6
Best market +133 · BetRivers
Market implied 42.9%
Edge -4.5%
Expected value -10.5%
Calculate value
New York Islanders logo
Home team

New York Islanders

61.6%
Fair American -160
Fair decimal 1.62
Best market -150 · BetMGM
Market implied 60.0%
Edge +1.6%
Expected value +2.7%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 20, 2026.

Anaheim Ducks

All Model Picks

Bets
5
Record
3-2
Net units
1.07
ROI
21.3%

Value Picks

Bets
4
Record
3-1
Net units
2.88
ROI
72.0%

Market Favourite

Bets
2
Record
1-1
Net units
-0.15
ROI
-7.6%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 20. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Anaheim Ducks

8 / 8 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

49:42 together · 7 games

xG share53.3%
Corsi for / against
44 / 49
Fenwick for / against
28 / 33
Corsi share
47.3%
Fenwick share
45.9%
xG for / against
2.28 / 2.00
Defense pair

65:15 together · 7 games

xG share40.7%
Corsi for / against
65 / 63
Fenwick for / against
49 / 44
Corsi share
50.8%
Fenwick share
52.7%
xG for / against
3.09 / 4.51
All observed combinations

New York Islanders

8 / 8 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

54:56 together · 8 games

xG share46.9%
Corsi for / against
51 / 56
Fenwick for / against
37 / 43
Corsi share
47.7%
Fenwick share
46.3%
xG for / against
2.96 / 3.35
Defense pair

82:55 together · 8 games

xG share50.1%
Corsi for / against
81 / 53
Fenwick for / against
51 / 38
Corsi share
60.4%
Fenwick share
57.3%
xG for / against
2.61 / 2.60
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Anaheim Ducks

Lukas Dostal 94.0%
Other eligible goalies

Why Lukas Dostal?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.882
Team played yesterday
+0.880
Prev save pct
-0.461
Days since last start
+0.359
Rolling 5 game avg save pct
-0.323
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 20, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

New York Islanders

Ilya Sorokin 83.3%
Other eligible goalies

Why Ilya Sorokin?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+1.179
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.491
Days since last start
+0.404
Goalie win pct before
+0.273
Started last game
-0.253
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 20, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Ville Husso

Anaheim Ducks · Last start: Oct 19

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
61
Save %
88.5
Goals allowed
7
Close-range shots %
45.9

Ilya Sorokin

New York Islanders · Last start: Oct 17

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
140
Save %
94.3
Goals allowed
8
Close-range shots %
27.1
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 20, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Anaheim Ducks

xG for / game
2.99
xG against / game
3.50
xG differential / game
-0.52

8 / 8 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

New York Islanders

xG for / game
2.66
xG against / game
3.12
xG differential / game
-0.46

8 / 8 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 20, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Anaheim Ducks

8 / 8 games covered

Attempts / game
57.1
Corsi share (%)
49.0
Fenwick share (%)
49.5
Faceoff win %
43.5
Penalties / game
4.12

Shots / game: 25.0 · Shooting: 12.0% · Avg distance: 32.9 ft

New York Islanders

8 / 8 games covered

Attempts / game
51.6
Corsi share (%)
49.0
Fenwick share (%)
48.1
Faceoff win %
53.0
Penalties / game
4.75

Shots / game: 24.9 · Shooting: 12.1% · Avg distance: 33.7 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Anaheim Ducks ANA
Metric
New York Islanders NYI
11Points14
0.458Points %0.583
37Goals for36
43Goals against32
-6Goal differential4
OT1Current streakW1
Road versus home
Anaheim Ducks ANA road
Metric
New York Islanders NYI home
7Games6
4Wins4
8Points9
1Goal differential8
Last 10 games
Anaheim Ducks ANA
Metric
New York Islanders NYI
3-6-1Record5-3-2
7Points12
30Goals for29
38Goals against30
-8Goal differential-1
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Anaheim Ducks ANA 3 wins
10 games reviewed
New York Islanders NYI 7 wins
Total goals25 – 39
Goal differential -14 / +14
Goals per game2.5 / 3.9
Shots per game27.8 / 32.9
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 4, 2026
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks
1 - 5 43 - 26 View
Dec 11, 2025
Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks at New York Islanders New York Islanders
2 - 5 33 - 37 View
Mar 9, 2025
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks
1 - 4 32 - 28 View
Oct 29, 2024
Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks at New York Islanders New York Islanders
3 - 1 22 - 41 View
Mar 10, 2024
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks
6 - 1 19 - 23 View
Dec 13, 2023
Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks at New York Islanders New York Islanders
3 - 4 24 - 35 View
Mar 15, 2023
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks
6 - 3 33 - 23 View
Oct 15, 2022
Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks at New York Islanders New York Islanders
1 - 7 23 - 38 View
Mar 13, 2022
Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks at New York Islanders New York Islanders
3 - 4 42 - 29 View
Feb 27, 2022
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks
4 - 0 22 - 34 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings ANA NYI