Skip to content

Winnipeg Jets vs Pittsburgh Penguins prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 5, 2026

NHL matchup

Winnipeg Jets at Pittsburgh Penguins

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 5, 2026.

October 5, 2026 · 6:30 PM CST
Away

Winnipeg Jets

4-5-3

3
Final
Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

5-6-1

2 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Pittsburgh Penguins at 59.4% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Winnipeg Jets logo
Away team

Winnipeg Jets

40.6%
Fair American +146
Fair decimal 2.46
Best market +155 · BetRivers
Market implied 39.2%
Edge +1.4%
Expected value +3.5%
Calculate value
Pittsburgh Penguins logo
Home team

Pittsburgh Penguins

59.4%
Fair American -146
Fair decimal 1.68
Best market -175 · BetMGM
Market implied 63.6%
Edge -4.2%
Expected value -6.7%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 5, 2026.

Winnipeg Jets

All Model Picks

Bets
1
Record
0-1
Net units
-1.00
ROI
-100.0%

Value Picks

Bets
1
Record
0-1
Net units
-1.00
ROI
-100.0%

Market Favourite

Bets
1
Record
0-1
Net units
-1.00
ROI
-100.0%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 5. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Winnipeg Jets

2 / 2 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

22:33 together · 2 games

xG share51.5%
Corsi for / against
29 / 30
Fenwick for / against
27 / 23
Corsi share
49.2%
Fenwick share
54.0%
xG for / against
1.56 / 1.46
Defense pair

25:13 together · 2 games

xG share30.0%
Corsi for / against
19 / 35
Fenwick for / against
15 / 25
Corsi share
35.2%
Fenwick share
37.5%
xG for / against
0.49 / 1.15
All observed combinations

Pittsburgh Penguins

2 / 2 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

27:41 together · 2 games

xG share67.1%
Corsi for / against
26 / 28
Fenwick for / against
23 / 17
Corsi share
48.1%
Fenwick share
57.5%
xG for / against
1.70 / 0.84
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Stuart Skinner

Winnipeg Jets · Last start: Oct 4

2 / 2 appearances covered

Shots faced
66
Save %
90.9
Goals allowed
6
Close-range shots %
33.3

Arturs Silovs

Pittsburgh Penguins · Last start: Oct 3

2 / 2 appearances covered

Shots faced
44
Save %
88.6
Goals allowed
5
Close-range shots %
20.5
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 5, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Winnipeg Jets

xG for / game
3.39
xG against / game
3.64
xG differential / game
-0.25

2 / 2 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Pittsburgh Penguins

xG for / game
3.88
xG against / game
2.33
xG differential / game
1.55

2 / 2 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 5, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Winnipeg Jets

2 / 2 games covered

Attempts / game
61.5
Corsi share (%)
44.7
Fenwick share (%)
46.4
Faceoff win %
43.8
Penalties / game
5.0

Shots / game: 30.0 · Shooting: 10.0% · Avg distance: 31.0 ft

Pittsburgh Penguins

2 / 2 games covered

Attempts / game
57.0
Corsi share (%)
49.6
Fenwick share (%)
53.4
Faceoff win %
41.3
Penalties / game
4.0

Shots / game: 34.0 · Shooting: 19.1% · Avg distance: 30.7 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Winnipeg Jets WPG
Metric
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT
11Points11
0.458Points %0.458
28Goals for40
36Goals against40
-8Goal differential0
L2Current streakW2
Road versus home
Winnipeg Jets WPG road
Metric
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT home
5Games5
2Wins4
6Points8
-1Goal differential6
Last 10 games
Winnipeg Jets WPG
Metric
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT
3-5-2Record3-6-1
8Points7
22Goals for27
30Goals against35
-8Goal differential-8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Winnipeg Jets WPG 5 wins
10 games reviewed
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT 5 wins
Total goals28 – 25
Goal differential +3 / -3
Goals per game2.8 / 2.5
Shots per game31.2 / 31.2
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 21, 2026
Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
4 - 5 25 - 30 View
Nov 1, 2025
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets
2 - 5 30 - 34 View
Nov 22, 2024
Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
4 - 1 30 - 18 View
Oct 20, 2024
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets
3 - 6 42 - 37 View
Feb 10, 2024
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets
1 - 2 36 - 31 View
Feb 6, 2024
Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
0 - 3 23 - 27 View
Jan 13, 2023
Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
4 - 1 40 - 23 View
Nov 19, 2022
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets
3 - 0 32 - 32 View
Jan 23, 2022
Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
2 - 3 29 - 38 View
Nov 22, 2021
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets
3 - 1 36 - 31 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings WPG PIT