Away team
Winnipeg Jets
50.1%
Fair American
-100
Fair decimal
2.0
Winnipeg Jets vs Buffalo Sabres prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 4, 2027
NHL matchup
Winnipeg Jets at Buffalo Sabres
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 4, 2027.
January 4, 2027
· 6:30 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Winnipeg Jets at 50.1%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Buffalo Sabres
49.9%
Fair American
+100
Fair decimal
2.0
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Jan 4, 2027.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 4
- Record
- 1-3
- Net units
- -2.07
- ROI
- -51.9%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 2-4
- Net units
- -0.82
- ROI
- -13.7%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 4
- Record
- 1-3
- Net units
- -2.07
- ROI
- -51.9%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 3-4
- Net units
- -1.66
- ROI
- -23.7%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 1-5
- Net units
- -4.07
- ROI
- -67.8%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 4
- Record
- 2-2
- Net units
- -0.62
- ROI
- -15.6%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 4. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Winnipeg Jets
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
135:56 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 159 / 130
- Fenwick for / against
- 120 / 104
- Corsi share
- 55.0%
- Fenwick share
- 53.6%
- xG for / against
- 7.78 / 7.59
Defense pair
121:50 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 114 / 112
- Fenwick for / against
- 83 / 81
- Corsi share
- 50.4%
- Fenwick share
- 50.6%
- xG for / against
- 4.74 / 5.31
Buffalo Sabres
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
103:15 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 117 / 54
- Fenwick for / against
- 81 / 41
- Corsi share
- 68.4%
- Fenwick share
- 66.4%
- xG for / against
- 6.30 / 2.72
Defense pair
81:19 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 72 / 59
- Fenwick for / against
- 50 / 42
- Corsi share
- 55.0%
- Fenwick share
- 54.3%
- xG for / against
- 3.23 / 2.92
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Winnipeg Jets
Expected starter unavailable.
Buffalo Sabres
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Stuart Skinner
Winnipeg Jets · Last start: Oct 25
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 136
- Save %
- 90.4
- Goals allowed
- 13
- Close-range shots %
- 38.2
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
Buffalo Sabres · Last start: Oct 24
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 163
- Save %
- 89.0
- Goals allowed
- 18
- Close-range shots %
- 40.5
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 4, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Winnipeg Jets
- xG for / game
- 2.87
- xG against / game
- 3.38
- xG differential / game
- -0.51
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Buffalo Sabres
- xG for / game
- 3.20
- xG against / game
- 3.55
- xG differential / game
- -0.35
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 4, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Winnipeg Jets
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 56.6
- Corsi share (%)
- 48.6
- Fenwick share (%)
- 47.4
- Faceoff win %
- 45.1
- Penalties / game
- 2.9
Shots / game: 26.6 · Shooting: 9.0% · Avg distance: 32.0 ft
Buffalo Sabres
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 56.8
- Corsi share (%)
- 51.0
- Fenwick share (%)
- 49.5
- Faceoff win %
- 48.2
- Penalties / game
- 4.2
Shots / game: 26.4 · Shooting: 10.6% · Avg distance: 30.6 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
WPG
|
Metric |
BUF
|
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Points | 11 |
| 0.500 | Points % | 0.500 |
| 27 | Goals for | 31 |
| 31 | Goals against | 41 |
| -4 | Goal differential | -10 |
| L1 | Current streak | OT1 |
Road versus home
|
WPG road
|
Metric |
BUF home
|
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Games | 6 |
| 2 | Wins | 3 |
| 6 | Points | 6 |
| -1 | Goal differential | -5 |
Last 10 games
|
WPG
|
Metric |
BUF
|
|---|---|---|
| 4-4-2 | Record | 4-3-3 |
| 10 | Points | 11 |
| 24 | Goals for | 28 |
| 27 | Goals against | 35 |
| -3 | Goal differential | -7 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
WPG
6 wins
10
games reviewed
BUF
4 wins
Total goals30 – 28
Goal differential
+2
/
-2
Goals per game3.0 / 2.8
Shots per game27.8 / 30.1
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2025 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Winnipeg Jets
|
1 - 4 | 35 - 23 | View |
| Dec 1, 2025 |
Winnipeg Jets
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
1 - 5 | 24 - 31 | View |
| Mar 23, 2025 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Winnipeg Jets
|
5 - 3 | 17 - 36 | View |
| Dec 5, 2024 |
Winnipeg Jets
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
3 - 2 | 31 - 30 | View |
| Mar 3, 2024 |
Winnipeg Jets
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
5 - 2 | 35 - 19 | View |
| Nov 17, 2023 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Winnipeg Jets
|
2 - 3 | 28 - 18 | View |
| Jan 26, 2023 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Winnipeg Jets
|
3 - 2 | 36 - 21 | View |
| Jan 12, 2023 |
Winnipeg Jets
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
4 - 2 | 27 - 41 | View |
| Mar 30, 2022 |
Winnipeg Jets
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
3 - 2 | 27 - 37 | View |
| Dec 14, 2021 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Winnipeg Jets
|
4 - 2 | 27 - 36 | View |