Away team
Washington Capitals
42.5%
Fair American
+135
Fair decimal
2.35
Washington Capitals vs Winnipeg Jets prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 5, 2027
NHL matchup
Washington Capitals at Winnipeg Jets
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 5, 2027.
March 5, 2027
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Winnipeg Jets at 57.5%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Winnipeg Jets
57.5%
Fair American
-135
Fair decimal
1.74
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 5, 2027.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 4-2
- Net units
- 1.42
- ROI
- 23.6%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 2-1
- Net units
- 0.96
- ROI
- 32.0%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 5-2
- Net units
- 1.86
- ROI
- 26.5%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 4
- Record
- 1-3
- Net units
- -2.07
- ROI
- -51.9%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 2-4
- Net units
- -0.82
- ROI
- -13.7%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 4
- Record
- 1-3
- Net units
- -2.07
- ROI
- -51.9%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 5. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Washington Capitals
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
41:39 together · 6 games
- Corsi for / against
- 41 / 38
- Fenwick for / against
- 32 / 27
- Corsi share
- 51.9%
- Fenwick share
- 54.2%
- xG for / against
- 2.56 / 1.53
Defense pair
87:35 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 78 / 105
- Fenwick for / against
- 61 / 80
- Corsi share
- 42.6%
- Fenwick share
- 43.3%
- xG for / against
- 4.29 / 4.54
Winnipeg Jets
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
135:56 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 159 / 130
- Fenwick for / against
- 120 / 104
- Corsi share
- 55.0%
- Fenwick share
- 53.6%
- xG for / against
- 7.78 / 7.59
Defense pair
121:50 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 114 / 112
- Fenwick for / against
- 83 / 81
- Corsi share
- 50.4%
- Fenwick share
- 50.6%
- xG for / against
- 4.74 / 5.31
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Washington Capitals
Expected starter unavailable.
Winnipeg Jets
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Charlie Lindgren
Washington Capitals · Last start: Oct 24
3 / 3 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 79
- Save %
- 88.6
- Goals allowed
- 9
- Close-range shots %
- 25.3
Stuart Skinner
Winnipeg Jets · Last start: Oct 25
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 136
- Save %
- 90.4
- Goals allowed
- 13
- Close-range shots %
- 38.2
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 5, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Washington Capitals
- xG for / game
- 3.53
- xG against / game
- 3.37
- xG differential / game
- 0.16
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Winnipeg Jets
- xG for / game
- 2.87
- xG against / game
- 3.38
- xG differential / game
- -0.51
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 5, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Washington Capitals
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 54.8
- Corsi share (%)
- 46.4
- Fenwick share (%)
- 47.8
- Faceoff win %
- 50.2
- Penalties / game
- 4.4
Shots / game: 27.5 · Shooting: 12.4% · Avg distance: 31.5 ft
Winnipeg Jets
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 56.6
- Corsi share (%)
- 48.6
- Fenwick share (%)
- 47.4
- Faceoff win %
- 45.1
- Penalties / game
- 2.9
Shots / game: 26.6 · Shooting: 9.0% · Avg distance: 32.0 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
WSH
|
Metric |
WPG
|
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Points | 11 |
| 0.600 | Points % | 0.500 |
| 34 | Goals for | 27 |
| 32 | Goals against | 31 |
| 2 | Goal differential | -4 |
| W1 | Current streak | L1 |
Road versus home
|
WSH road
|
Metric |
WPG home
|
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Games | 6 |
| 1 | Wins | 2 |
| 2 | Points | 5 |
| -1 | Goal differential | -3 |
Last 10 games
|
WSH
|
Metric |
WPG
|
|---|---|---|
| 6-4-0 | Record | 4-4-2 |
| 12 | Points | 10 |
| 34 | Goals for | 24 |
| 32 | Goals against | 27 |
| 2 | Goal differential | -3 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
WSH
6 wins
10
games reviewed
WPG
4 wins
Total goals32 – 27
Goal differential
+5
/
-5
Goals per game3.2 / 2.7
Shots per game29.3 / 29.9
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 |
Washington Capitals
at
Winnipeg Jets
|
1 - 5 | 25 - 35 | View |
| Nov 26, 2025 |
Winnipeg Jets
at
Washington Capitals
|
3 - 4 | 21 - 35 | View |
| Mar 25, 2025 |
Washington Capitals
at
Winnipeg Jets
|
2 - 3 | 29 - 25 | View |
| Feb 1, 2025 |
Winnipeg Jets
at
Washington Capitals
|
5 - 4 | 30 - 29 | View |
| Mar 24, 2024 |
Winnipeg Jets
at
Washington Capitals
|
0 - 3 | 27 - 19 | View |
| Mar 11, 2024 |
Washington Capitals
at
Winnipeg Jets
|
0 - 3 | 23 - 29 | View |
| Dec 23, 2022 |
Winnipeg Jets
at
Washington Capitals
|
1 - 4 | 26 - 27 | View |
| Dec 11, 2022 |
Washington Capitals
at
Winnipeg Jets
|
5 - 2 | 36 - 31 | View |
| Jan 18, 2022 |
Winnipeg Jets
at
Washington Capitals
|
3 - 4 | 33 - 31 | View |
| Dec 17, 2021 |
Washington Capitals
at
Winnipeg Jets
|
5 - 2 | 39 - 42 | View |