Away team
Washington Capitals
34.3%
Fair American
+192
Fair decimal
2.92
Washington Capitals vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 21, 2026
NHL matchup
Washington Capitals at Toronto Maple Leafs
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 21, 2026.
December 21, 2026
· 1:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Toronto Maple Leafs at 65.7%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Toronto Maple Leafs
65.7%
Fair American
-192
Fair decimal
1.52
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 21, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 4-2
- Net units
- 1.42
- ROI
- 23.6%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 2-1
- Net units
- 0.96
- ROI
- 32.0%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 5-2
- Net units
- 1.86
- ROI
- 26.5%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 4-4
- Net units
- 0.65
- ROI
- 8.2%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 5-2
- Net units
- 4.60
- ROI
- 65.8%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 2-4
- Net units
- -2.55
- ROI
- -42.5%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 21. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Washington Capitals
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
41:39 together · 6 games
- Corsi for / against
- 41 / 38
- Fenwick for / against
- 32 / 27
- Corsi share
- 51.9%
- Fenwick share
- 54.2%
- xG for / against
- 2.56 / 1.53
Defense pair
87:35 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 78 / 105
- Fenwick for / against
- 61 / 80
- Corsi share
- 42.6%
- Fenwick share
- 43.3%
- xG for / against
- 4.29 / 4.54
Toronto Maple Leafs
This selection is unavailable until complete validated shift records cover every selected game.
All observed combinationsAmbiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Washington Capitals
Expected starter unavailable.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Charlie Lindgren
Washington Capitals · Last start: Oct 24
3 / 3 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 79
- Save %
- 88.6
- Goals allowed
- 9
- Close-range shots %
- 25.3
Sergei Bobrovsky
Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 26
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 142
- Save %
- 88.7
- Goals allowed
- 16
- Close-range shots %
- 25.4
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 21, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Washington Capitals
- xG for / game
- 3.53
- xG against / game
- 3.37
- xG differential / game
- 0.16
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Toronto Maple Leafs
- xG for / game
- 3.03
- xG against / game
- 3.38
- xG differential / game
- -0.35
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 21, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Washington Capitals
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 54.8
- Corsi share (%)
- 46.4
- Fenwick share (%)
- 47.8
- Faceoff win %
- 50.2
- Penalties / game
- 4.4
Shots / game: 27.5 · Shooting: 12.4% · Avg distance: 31.5 ft
Toronto Maple Leafs
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 51.3
- Corsi share (%)
- 44.0
- Fenwick share (%)
- 46.7
- Faceoff win %
- 52.7
- Penalties / game
- 4.9
Shots / game: 28.1 · Shooting: 14.6% · Avg distance: 34.1 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
WSH
|
Metric |
TOR
|
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Points | 16 |
| 0.600 | Points % | 0.571 |
| 34 | Goals for | 52 |
| 32 | Goals against | 46 |
| 2 | Goal differential | 6 |
| W1 | Current streak | L1 |
Road versus home
|
WSH road
|
Metric |
TOR home
|
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Games | 8 |
| 1 | Wins | 4 |
| 2 | Points | 9 |
| -1 | Goal differential | -1 |
Last 10 games
|
WSH
|
Metric |
TOR
|
|---|---|---|
| 6-4-0 | Record | 5-3-2 |
| 12 | Points | 12 |
| 34 | Goals for | 41 |
| 32 | Goals against | 35 |
| 2 | Goal differential | 6 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
WSH
5 wins
10
games reviewed
TOR
5 wins
Total goals29 – 30
Goal differential
-1
/
+1
Goals per game2.9 / 3.0
Shots per game27.5 / 27.8
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2026 |
Washington Capitals
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
4 - 0 | 20 - 21 | View |
| Dec 18, 2025 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Washington Capitals
|
0 - 4 | 22 - 29 | View |
| Nov 28, 2025 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Washington Capitals
|
2 - 4 | 22 - 34 | View |
| Dec 28, 2024 |
Washington Capitals
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
5 - 2 | 32 - 37 | View |
| Dec 6, 2024 |
Washington Capitals
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
3 - 1 | 26 - 21 | View |
| Nov 13, 2024 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Washington Capitals
|
4 - 3 | 34 - 27 | View |
| Mar 28, 2024 |
Washington Capitals
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
1 - 5 | 24 - 48 | View |
| Mar 20, 2024 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Washington Capitals
|
7 - 3 | 29 - 21 | View |
| Oct 24, 2023 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Washington Capitals
|
4 - 1 | 17 - 38 | View |
| Jan 29, 2023 |
Washington Capitals
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
1 - 5 | 24 - 27 | View |