Washington Capitals vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 3, 2026

NHL matchup

Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning

View the PlayerWON model prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 3, 2026.

October 3, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Washington Capitals

43-30-9
at
Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

50-26-6
Model favourite Tampa Bay Lightning at 68.0%
Prediction

Model versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Washington Capitals logo
Away team

Washington Capitals

32.0%
Fair American +212
Fair decimal 3.12
Best market +124 · DraftKings
Market implied 44.6%
Edge -12.6%
Expected value -28.3%
Calculate value
Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Home team

Tampa Bay Lightning

68.0%
Fair American -213
Fair decimal 1.47
Best market -148 · DraftKings
Market implied 59.7%
Edge +8.3%
Expected value +13.9%
Calculate value
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Washington Capitals WSH
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
95Points106
0.579Points %0.646
263Goals for290
244Goals against231
19Goal differential59
W4Current streakL1
Road versus home
Washington Capitals WSH road
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL home
41Games41
18Wins26
40Points53
-11Goal differential22
Last 10 games
Washington Capitals WSH
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
8-2-0Record5-5-0
16Points10
43Goals for26
33Goals against30
10Goal differential-4
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Washington Capitals WSH 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 6 wins
Total goals25 – 32
Goal differential -7 / +7
Goals per game2.5 / 3.2
Shots per game29.8 / 24.3
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Nov 22, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
5 - 3 16 - 32 View
Nov 8, 2025
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
2 - 3 30 - 20 View
Oct 14, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
2 - 3 19 - 28 View
Mar 1, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
3 - 1 19 - 21 View
Nov 27, 2024
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
5 - 4 32 - 28 View
Oct 26, 2024
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
0 - 3 32 - 21 View
Apr 13, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
2 - 4 34 - 34 View
Feb 22, 2024
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
5 - 3 24 - 32 View
Dec 23, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
2 - 1 20 - 34 View
Mar 30, 2023
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 5 31 - 34 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s machine-learning model, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings WSH TBL