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Washington Capitals vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 3, 2026

NHL matchup

Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 3, 2026.

October 3, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Washington Capitals

6-4-0

1
Final
Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

7-3-1

3 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Tampa Bay Lightning at 53.1% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Washington Capitals logo
Away team

Washington Capitals

46.9%
Fair American +113
Fair decimal 2.13
Best market +160 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 38.5%
Edge +8.4%
Expected value +21.9%
Calculate value
Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Home team

Tampa Bay Lightning

53.1%
Fair American -113
Fair decimal 1.88
Best market -165 · BetRivers
Market implied 62.3%
Edge -9.2%
Expected value -14.7%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 3, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 3. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Washington Capitals

1 / 1 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

10:45 together · 1 game

xG share66.1%
Corsi for / against
10 / 8
Fenwick for / against
7 / 4
Corsi share
55.6%
Fenwick share
63.6%
xG for / against
0.70 / 0.36
All observed combinations

Tampa Bay Lightning

1 / 1 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trioUnder 10 minutes

8:04 together · 1 game

xG share57.6%
Corsi for / against
9 / 4
Fenwick for / against
3 / 3
Corsi share
69.2%
Fenwick share
50.0%
xG for / against
0.16 / 0.12
Defense pair

11:17 together · 1 game

xG share77.5%
Corsi for / against
10 / 4
Fenwick for / against
5 / 2
Corsi share
71.4%
Fenwick share
71.4%
xG for / against
0.43 / 0.13
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Logan Thompson

Washington Capitals · Last start: Oct 2

1 / 1 appearances covered

Shots faced
33
Save %
93.9
Goals allowed
2
Close-range shots %
33.3

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 1

1 / 1 appearances covered

Shots faced
24
Save %
83.3
Goals allowed
4
Close-range shots %
33.3
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 3, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Washington Capitals

xG for / game
3.59
xG against / game
4.18
xG differential / game
-0.59

1 / 1 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG for / game
2.34
xG against / game
3.00
xG differential / game
-0.66

1 / 1 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 3, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Washington Capitals

1 / 1 games covered

Attempts / game
43.0
Corsi share (%)
34.7
Fenwick share (%)
39.5
Faceoff win %
53.2
Penalties / game
8.0

Shots / game: 27.0 · Shooting: 18.5% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft

Tampa Bay Lightning

1 / 1 games covered

Attempts / game
63.0
Corsi share (%)
54.8
Fenwick share (%)
52.0
Faceoff win %
38.6
Penalties / game
3.0

Shots / game: 24.0 · Shooting: 4.2% · Avg distance: 25.2 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Washington Capitals WSH
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
12Points15
0.600Points %0.682
34Goals for38
32Goals against34
2Goal differential4
W1Current streakOT1
Road versus home
Washington Capitals WSH road
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL home
3Games5
1Wins5
2Points10
-1Goal differential9
Last 10 games
Washington Capitals WSH
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
6-4-0Record7-2-1
12Points15
34Goals for37
32Goals against29
2Goal differential8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Washington Capitals WSH 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 6 wins
Total goals25 – 32
Goal differential -7 / +7
Goals per game2.5 / 3.2
Shots per game29.8 / 24.3
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Nov 22, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
5 - 3 16 - 32 View
Nov 8, 2025
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
2 - 3 30 - 20 View
Oct 14, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
2 - 3 19 - 28 View
Mar 1, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
3 - 1 19 - 21 View
Nov 27, 2024
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
5 - 4 32 - 28 View
Oct 26, 2024
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
0 - 3 32 - 21 View
Apr 13, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
2 - 4 34 - 34 View
Feb 22, 2024
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
5 - 3 24 - 32 View
Dec 23, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
2 - 1 20 - 34 View
Mar 30, 2023
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 5 31 - 34 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings WSH TBL