Away team
Washington Capitals
35.3%
Fair American
+183
Fair decimal
2.83
Washington Capitals vs St. Louis Blues prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 28, 2026
NHL matchup
Washington Capitals at St. Louis Blues
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 28, 2026.
November 28, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
St. Louis Blues at 64.7%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
St. Louis Blues
64.7%
Fair American
-183
Fair decimal
1.55
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 28, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 4-2
- Net units
- 1.42
- ROI
- 23.6%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 2-1
- Net units
- 0.96
- ROI
- 32.0%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 5-2
- Net units
- 1.86
- ROI
- 26.5%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 2-1
- Net units
- 1.60
- ROI
- 53.3%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 5
- Record
- 3-2
- Net units
- 1.70
- ROI
- 34.0%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 5
- Record
- 2-3
- Net units
- -1.49
- ROI
- -29.7%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 28. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Washington Capitals
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
41:39 together · 6 games
- Corsi for / against
- 41 / 38
- Fenwick for / against
- 32 / 27
- Corsi share
- 51.9%
- Fenwick share
- 54.2%
- xG for / against
- 2.56 / 1.53
Defense pair
87:35 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 78 / 105
- Fenwick for / against
- 61 / 80
- Corsi share
- 42.6%
- Fenwick share
- 43.3%
- xG for / against
- 4.29 / 4.54
St. Louis Blues
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
108:27 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 98 / 106
- Fenwick for / against
- 71 / 81
- Corsi share
- 48.0%
- Fenwick share
- 46.7%
- xG for / against
- 4.57 / 5.02
Defense pair
113:14 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 104 / 102
- Fenwick for / against
- 75 / 86
- Corsi share
- 50.5%
- Fenwick share
- 46.6%
- xG for / against
- 5.79 / 5.98
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Washington Capitals
Expected starter unavailable.
St. Louis Blues
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Charlie Lindgren
Washington Capitals · Last start: Oct 24
3 / 3 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 79
- Save %
- 88.6
- Goals allowed
- 9
- Close-range shots %
- 25.3
Joel Hofer
St. Louis Blues · Last start: Oct 24
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 157
- Save %
- 91.1
- Goals allowed
- 14
- Close-range shots %
- 34.4
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 28, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Washington Capitals
- xG for / game
- 3.53
- xG against / game
- 3.37
- xG differential / game
- 0.16
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
St. Louis Blues
- xG for / game
- 2.90
- xG against / game
- 2.82
- xG differential / game
- 0.08
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 28, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Washington Capitals
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 54.8
- Corsi share (%)
- 46.4
- Fenwick share (%)
- 47.8
- Faceoff win %
- 50.2
- Penalties / game
- 4.4
Shots / game: 27.5 · Shooting: 12.4% · Avg distance: 31.5 ft
St. Louis Blues
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 54.5
- Corsi share (%)
- 49.7
- Fenwick share (%)
- 47.5
- Faceoff win %
- 49.9
- Penalties / game
- 2.9
Shots / game: 26.7 · Shooting: 11.6% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
WSH
|
Metric |
STL
|
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Points | 11 |
| 0.600 | Points % | 0.500 |
| 34 | Goals for | 35 |
| 32 | Goals against | 35 |
| 2 | Goal differential | 0 |
| W1 | Current streak | L1 |
Road versus home
|
WSH road
|
Metric |
STL home
|
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Games | 5 |
| 1 | Wins | 3 |
| 2 | Points | 7 |
| -1 | Goal differential | 2 |
Last 10 games
|
WSH
|
Metric |
STL
|
|---|---|---|
| 6-4-0 | Record | 4-5-1 |
| 12 | Points | 9 |
| 34 | Goals for | 31 |
| 32 | Goals against | 35 |
| 2 | Goal differential | -4 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
WSH
3 wins
10
games reviewed
STL
7 wins
Total goals30 – 35
Goal differential
-5
/
+5
Goals per game3.0 / 3.5
Shots per game27.5 / 25.2
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 |
Washington Capitals
at
St. Louis Blues
|
0 - 3 | 21 - 27 | View |
| Nov 5, 2025 |
St. Louis Blues
at
Washington Capitals
|
1 - 6 | 24 - 32 | View |
| Feb 27, 2025 |
St. Louis Blues
at
Washington Capitals
|
5 - 2 | 19 - 18 | View |
| Nov 9, 2024 |
Washington Capitals
at
St. Louis Blues
|
8 - 1 | 27 - 25 | View |
| Jan 20, 2024 |
Washington Capitals
at
St. Louis Blues
|
0 - 3 | 18 - 29 | View |
| Jan 18, 2024 |
St. Louis Blues
at
Washington Capitals
|
2 - 5 | 20 - 26 | View |
| Mar 17, 2023 |
St. Louis Blues
at
Washington Capitals
|
5 - 2 | 22 - 34 | View |
| Nov 17, 2022 |
Washington Capitals
at
St. Louis Blues
|
4 - 5 | 51 - 24 | View |
| Mar 22, 2022 |
St. Louis Blues
at
Washington Capitals
|
5 - 2 | 38 - 21 | View |
| Jan 7, 2022 |
Washington Capitals
at
St. Louis Blues
|
1 - 5 | 27 - 24 | View |