Away team
Washington Capitals
34.3%
Fair American
+192
Fair decimal
2.92
Washington Capitals vs New York Islanders prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 1, 2027
NHL matchup
Washington Capitals at New York Islanders
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 1, 2027.
March 1, 2027
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
New York Islanders at 65.7%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
New York Islanders
65.7%
Fair American
-192
Fair decimal
1.52
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 1, 2027.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 4-2
- Net units
- 1.42
- ROI
- 23.6%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 2-1
- Net units
- 0.96
- ROI
- 32.0%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 5-2
- Net units
- 1.86
- ROI
- 26.5%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 5
- Record
- 3-2
- Net units
- -0.28
- ROI
- -5.6%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 2-5
- Net units
- -3.13
- ROI
- -44.8%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 3-0
- Net units
- 1.72
- ROI
- 57.4%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 1. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Washington Capitals
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
41:39 together · 6 games
- Corsi for / against
- 41 / 38
- Fenwick for / against
- 32 / 27
- Corsi share
- 51.9%
- Fenwick share
- 54.2%
- xG for / against
- 2.56 / 1.53
Defense pair
87:35 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 78 / 105
- Fenwick for / against
- 61 / 80
- Corsi share
- 42.6%
- Fenwick share
- 43.3%
- xG for / against
- 4.29 / 4.54
New York Islanders
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
54:55 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 51 / 56
- Fenwick for / against
- 37 / 43
- Corsi share
- 47.7%
- Fenwick share
- 46.3%
- xG for / against
- 2.96 / 3.35
Defense pair
121:23 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 126 / 86
- Fenwick for / against
- 86 / 63
- Corsi share
- 59.4%
- Fenwick share
- 57.7%
- xG for / against
- 5.72 / 4.44
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Washington Capitals
Expected starter unavailable.
New York Islanders
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Charlie Lindgren
Washington Capitals · Last start: Oct 24
3 / 3 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 79
- Save %
- 88.6
- Goals allowed
- 9
- Close-range shots %
- 25.3
Ilya Sorokin
New York Islanders · Last start: Oct 25
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 135
- Save %
- 88.9
- Goals allowed
- 15
- Close-range shots %
- 28.1
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 1, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Washington Capitals
- xG for / game
- 3.53
- xG against / game
- 3.37
- xG differential / game
- 0.16
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
New York Islanders
- xG for / game
- 2.97
- xG against / game
- 3.30
- xG differential / game
- -0.33
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 1, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Washington Capitals
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 54.8
- Corsi share (%)
- 46.4
- Fenwick share (%)
- 47.8
- Faceoff win %
- 50.2
- Penalties / game
- 4.4
Shots / game: 27.5 · Shooting: 12.4% · Avg distance: 31.5 ft
New York Islanders
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 54.0
- Corsi share (%)
- 49.2
- Fenwick share (%)
- 48.7
- Faceoff win %
- 56.0
- Penalties / game
- 4.5
Shots / game: 25.9 · Shooting: 12.0% · Avg distance: 33.5 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
WSH
|
Metric |
NYI
|
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Points | 12 |
| 0.600 | Points % | 0.545 |
| 34 | Goals for | 32 |
| 32 | Goals against | 29 |
| 2 | Goal differential | 3 |
| W1 | Current streak | L1 |
Road versus home
|
WSH road
|
Metric |
NYI home
|
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Games | 6 |
| 1 | Wins | 4 |
| 2 | Points | 9 |
| -1 | Goal differential | 8 |
Last 10 games
|
WSH
|
Metric |
NYI
|
|---|---|---|
| 6-4-0 | Record | 5-3-2 |
| 12 | Points | 12 |
| 34 | Goals for | 31 |
| 32 | Goals against | 27 |
| 2 | Goal differential | 4 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
WSH
7 wins
10
games reviewed
NYI
3 wins
Total goals30 – 24
Goal differential
+6
/
-6
Goals per game3.0 / 2.4
Shots per game27.7 / 30.0
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 |
New York Islanders
at
Washington Capitals
|
1 - 4 | 30 - 24 | View |
| Nov 30, 2025 |
Washington Capitals
at
New York Islanders
|
4 - 1 | 19 - 31 | View |
| Oct 31, 2025 |
New York Islanders
at
Washington Capitals
|
3 - 1 | 23 - 23 | View |
| Oct 11, 2025 |
Washington Capitals
at
New York Islanders
|
4 - 2 | 29 - 36 | View |
| Apr 15, 2025 |
Washington Capitals
at
New York Islanders
|
3 - 1 | 36 - 33 | View |
| Apr 6, 2025 |
Washington Capitals
at
New York Islanders
|
1 - 4 | 29 - 22 | View |
| Nov 29, 2024 |
New York Islanders
at
Washington Capitals
|
4 - 5 | 24 - 26 | View |
| Dec 29, 2023 |
Washington Capitals
at
New York Islanders
|
1 - 5 | 27 - 32 | View |
| Dec 20, 2023 |
New York Islanders
at
Washington Capitals
|
2 - 3 | 32 - 36 | View |
| Nov 11, 2023 |
Washington Capitals
at
New York Islanders
|
4 - 1 | 28 - 37 | View |